World Cup 2014 Thread....

I think one thing in common in almost all of these games has been some serious goalkeeping errors and overall poor goalkeeping.  People smarter than me might make the argument that this should have been expected as these might not be the worlds best goalkeepers in this tournament - and like I have said before there are key GK's on top teams that don't have recent club experience because they sit on the bench.

The goals have been very surprising - at least to me.  But Im not sold yet that this is an ongoing trend.  I have taken notice - but will look for value on unders to come.

If you look at these games - there hasn't been an overabundance of offense - and chances - just an overabundance of goals.  But that being said - the only game that went under really should have been an over - and that would be 8 for 8.

Must have been the humidity. 

I cant get enough of this. 

https://www.gfycat.com/ForthrightLongBlueshark

Game Bets:

3-5 - 5 units up, 7.6 units down

Brazil / Croatia – Under 2.5 goals -115 (1.5 units) - LOSS

Mexico / Cameroon – Cameroon PK and +.5 -101 (1 unit) - LOSS

Spain / Netherlands – Spain to win -112 (2 units) - LOSS

Chile / Australia – Chile to win -215 (1 unit), Chile -1 -116 (1 unit) - WIN

Greece / Columbia – Greece +.5 +105 (1.5 units) - LOSS

Costa Rica / Uruguay – Under 2 and 2.5 -105 (1 unit) - LOSS

Italy / England – Italy PK -114 (1 unit) - WIN

Ivory Coast / Japan – Over 2 -125 (2 units) - WIN

Ecuador / Switzerland – Switzerland to win +155 (1.5 units)

France / Honduras - No bet

Argentina / Bosnia - over 2.5 -115 (1 unit)

Germany / Portugal - Under 2.5 -115 (1 unit

Iran / Nigeria - No Bet

Ghana / USA - over 2 and 2.5 +100 (1 unit)

Sunday June 15

Ecuador / Switzerland – Switzerland to win +155 (1.5 units) – I have has this game circled.  Classic case of a team getting so much sh*t for being overrated that the line has swung way past where it should be.  First – some thoughts on Ecuador – and a geography lesson.  Ecuador plays their home games in Quito – which also happens to be the highest altitude capital on earth at close to 10k feet.  In qualifying, their home record was 7 wins, 0 losses, 1 draw (22 of 24 points) – while on the road they had 0 wins, 5 losses, and 3 draws (3 of 24 points) – an incredible disparity that can definitely be attributed to home games at altitude.  Ecaudor will obviously be playing away from home and at no altitude – and trying their luck with a basic 4-4-2.  They are mediocre all over the pitch – not terrible – but their skill positions really don’t have much skill.  Switzerland are fully capable of shutting down a team like this – and the line reflects what I feel is about a 30 cent edge because of this backlash that Switzerland is overrated as one of the eight top seeds.  Im going out on a limb here and taking longer odds on a Swiss win.  Predicted final score Switzerland 2 Ecuador 0

France / Honduras - No bet - I dont know what to do with this game, just think the line is set right on both the side and total.  Curious to see how France adjusts to not having Ribery, and to a lot of individual talent on the field that needs to gel.  I anticipate that Honduras will play very physical and chip at the French ankles every time they get possession but I just dont see Honduras with very much to offer anywhere on the field.  First game, physical game - predicted final score France 2 Honduras 0

Argentina / Bosnia - over 2.5 -115 (1 unit) - I wish this game wasnt in the first round, but will take my chances on two very offensive minded teams with potential problems on defense for both.  Bosnia was quietly one of the highest scoring teams in European qualification scoring 30 goals in their 10 games.  There has been talk that they would make a shift from basically a 5 man attacking front to play more defensively - but I see them playing to their strength which is their attack.  Argentina - what can you say - the most potent attack in the tournament - and only questions might be in their defense and GK.  Predicted final score Argentina 3 Bosnia 1

Monday June 16

Germany / Portugal - Under 2.5 -115 (1 unit) - Going under seems like a death wish so far in this tournament.  And although both of these teams can be offensive minded and very efficient - I point to the Euro 2012 opener where these teams were in the same group - playing in the first round.  It ended 1-0 to Germany, but was a very slow defensive match up until the second half goal.  I see Portugal playing much the same way - defend and counter - but their lack of a striker hurts them against better teams.  It could be said that Germany have similar issues without a traditional striker - but their loaded midfield creates a lot more than Portugal can.  Portugal rely on the speed and individual talent of Nani and Ronaldo without the combination of a truly gifted striker.  Predicted final score Germany 1 Portugal 1

Iran / Nigeria - No Bet - Really tough game to figure.  Iran personnel for me is somewhat of an unknown - most of the players play in the Iranian league which (no surprise) is tough to follow.  A couple of guys play midlevel in England (Dejagah) - but other than that it almost all Iranian based players.  All I have to go on is qualifying and friendlies - so while it looks like they will set up to be defensive and play behind the ball - they havent played many friendlies to even look at.  They have a very high level coach in Queiroz (Real Madrid, Portugal) who is historically defensive minded so they should be well organized.  Nigeria won the African Cup of Nations last year - but questions around their midfield creativity and lack of scoring punch plague them outside of Africa.  They seem well organized on defense, but it will be interesting to see if frustration against a defensive minded opponent will set in and create gaps at the back.  This one is a watch and see for me.  Lean to a low scoring close game.  Predicted final score 1-1

Ghana / USA - over 2 and 2.5 +100 (1 unit) - If I were Jurgen Klinsmann, I would abandon the diamond midfield for this game and play a traditional 4-4-2.  The issue I see with the US is the lack of a defense that has any time to play together, and a lack of quality on defense.  So with the diamond - there is a defensive midfielder sitting on top of the 4 in back providing support - but the nature of a wide diamond is that it creates space in the midfield for a counter attack.  If your wide midfield players dont get back on counter attacks - it is an easy linkup from the defense to midfield with space to move.  In a more traditional approach of 2 banks of 4, the opposition is forced to be creative and make plays in the midfield.

This is Ghanas weakness - the lack of a playmaker.  They have great talent and speed all over the field, but no Pirlo in the middle making it happen.  So giving Ghana any kind of space to use on the counter is not good in my opinion. 

But assuming the US sticks with the midfield diamond - there should be gaps for very speedy runners to get behind the US defense - especially if the US plays a high defensive line.  On the other side of the ball - the US should also get opportunities against a Ghana defense that is prone to mental lapses in the back.  Finishing those chances is another story.  Jozy Altidore - for all of his well documented struggles - serves a purpose.  But that purpose at this point should not be a player who is relied on to provide speed and break - a guy like Johannsson is a better fit IMO.  But Altidore will be out there and hopefully will regain the form he once had.  He needs service in deep positions - and there will be chances to do that - Michael Bradley is therefore the key to the US scoring goals.  He has been and continues to be the main man on this team - and if the US do anything at all in this tournament it will be on his back.  His play in the Turkey game is a perfect example.  He played almost flawlessly - and will be needed to provide that type of play in order to put Altidore in positions where he can use his size to control and take one touch on goal.

Im certainly hoping to see the US put in a good performance and get a result - and I do think it is possible - but my head says there is a slight edge to Ghana here and there should be lots of chances on both sides of the pitch.  Predicted final score Ghana 2 USA 1

I have to comment on the weather so far.

IS 81 DEGREES AND 80% HUMIDITY REALLY A PROBLEM??

Last night, in the Japan / IC game - it was 75 degrees.  For England / Italy - which as we know now from hearing it 4000 times on ESPN was played in the Amazon - it was 86 at the start of the game and 80 by the end.

This is a problem?  Really?  What am I missing here.  Florida is 95 with 100% humidity half the year.

Seems like a great storyline for the viewers at home for ESPN to tell, but I am not buying it.  Yes - there was cramping at the end of the Italy England game.  Maybe due to the layoff between club and this tournament?  I don't know.

Wowsa.

But I really feel that was deserved after that CLEAR onside goal was disallowed.

Jeesh.  Time to catch my breath.

Valon Behrami is my new favorite player.

His play on the last sequence was epic.  That guy should be given free fondue and chocolate for the rest of his life.

Allez Les Bleus!!

Nice Hit

That Dude was Phenomenal