USA / Germany - USA +1 -105 (3 units) - Count me as a believer. Yes, I believe that we will win (over and over and over). This game couldn't be more interesting - and couldn't be more important. The possibilities are endless with this one - so I am going to use a little bit of Occams Razor and go with what I feel is the most likely scenario.
Germany will once again crowd the middle of the field, play a false 9 (no real striker), and use a lot of short passing to build play. They will have a huge advantage in possession - and I think the US should give them this.
The weakness for Germany - if there is one - is the defense and specifically Howedes, Mertesacker, and Lahm. Lahm is playing as their holding midfielder - but has been really bad on the ball giving away 2 goals by careless passes. Mertesacker and Howedes are particularly non-mobile - and can be beaten by quick counterattacks. So I believe that JK will have something in store that we saw Ghana do effectively against Germany - and that is pressure very high up the pitch. As opposed to how we played against Ghana where we allowed possession and we allowed them to easily enter the US zone - I think we will see a very high press. This is high risk / high reward - but it forces the weakest part of the German side to beat you out of their zone.
This tactic requires a lot of stamina, determination, and running - something that the US squad might not want to hear after playing 2 extremely tough games in extremely tough conditions. But it is the way to hold Germany and possibly beat them - and it will take a full team effort by the US - including subs - to do it. They are going to press high, and if that is beaten, have to get back to cover. Can guys like Beckerman, Jones, Beasley, Dempsey, and maybe Wondolowski pull this off in their 30's? It will be tough for sure.
I haven't seen that Germany can be a quick attack team. They like the slow build. So if the US can force them in to quick decisions - and counterattack with speed - that is playing in to their weakness. The US will be in their best position when they are in front of the German front line - in other words - if the US holds possession for long enough for the German defense to settle back it is too late. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same lineup we saw against Portugal. The key is - when the US gets the ball - look to attack right away even if there are better options in the build up.
I do think that if the game is tied going on 60 mins.... Both teams will become much more defensive - and not necessarily because they want a draw - but more because the risk / reward of going forward on attack becomes higher risk and lower reward as the game goes on. So the key for the US is running their fools off for about 60 minutes, and then making sure they don't let off too much from there and leave with the draw. Predicted final score Germany 1 USA 1
Ghana / Portugal - Ghana +.5 -120 (2 units) - I see this as a pretty even game, and I don't understand this line at all. Ghana is going to give Portugal all kinds of problems if they play the same tactics as they did against Germany - the high press will cause Portugal to make decisions before they want to make them and getting Ronaldo the ball up top might be difficult. Once again - Ghana should emulate the US tactics against Portugal and attack in and behind Ronaldo in to the weaker side of the midfield where they should see plenty of space. If Portugal get down, I can just see them packing it up - it has been a very emotional tournament for them - and seeing their reaction after equalizing in the last minute against the US said it all to me. No celebration - no sense of accomplishment - I have to wonder where their heads are coming in to this game. I just see this as a coinflip game - give me the half goal. Predicted final score Ghana 2 Portugal 2
Belgium / S Korea - Belgium to win -142 (2 units) - The reason Belgium had such a hard time against Algeria and Russia is because they packed back and played defense. I see absolutely no reason S Korea will do anything on defense in this one (even if they could). It is what we have seen in all games in the 3rd round involving teams that are out of it - they go out and attack and usually this is very bad news for them (Honduras, Japan, Australia, Cameroon). Belgium should cut this team up - remember that big things were expected of this team and they are getting a lot of heat for not performing - so their motivation is still there along with avoiding the Germans in the next round. Belgium cuts through S Korea with ease. Predicted final score Belgium 3 S Korea 1
Russia / Algeria - Russia to win +108 (2.5 units) - This is basically a play in game - Russia wins and they go through and if Algeria wins or draws they go through. Of all teams in this tournament - Algeria might have shown the biggest tactical difference between their first and second games. Against Belgium, Algeria packed back and defended - and really only lost because they got sucked out on attack and got hit on a quick counter. Against S Korea, they pressed high and blitzed a totally outmanned Korean side playing with 5 different players and a totally different mentality. So what will see from them in this one?
I think they will once again take a defensive posture and look for the draw, or to hit Russia on the counterattack. This will allow Russia to sit forward and dictate tempo - and build the attack - something they really struggled with in their first two games. Russia has been extremely inefficient - and in soccer terms that is a team I don't like to bet on - scoring only one goal over two games where they had multiple chances. The key here is converting - and I just see them having double the chances on goal than Algeria in this one - and the scoring drought ends. Predicted final score Russia 2 Algeria 1
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