France to win WC +2500 (1 unit) France to reach quarterfinals +100 (1 unit)
A couple of notes before the game write-ups...
I originally picked Argentina to win the tournament. I no longer think they will win, in fact I think they will have trouble with every game they play from here on - and think they will have trouble with Switzerland. Their defense just isn't there, and so far they have had limited success finding Messi in the right spot. Aguerro is out, and I just don't see these things solving themselves in time for this tournament.
I really love the way France is playing, but with Germany, and a S American team in their future on the way to the final, they should be considered a long shot at best. Much better than 25-1, but no better than 10-1 or so.
For those interested in picking and betting a winner at this point, look at the bracket. The right side of the bracket is clearly lighter than the left.
In the last 2 world cups, the group winners are 13-3 overall against the second place teams in the round of 16.
In the last 2 world cups, there have been 4 out of 16 games in the round of 16 to go to extra time, with 2 of those going to penalties.
So far, the most successful tactic in the group stage has been the 5 man defense (sometimes referred to as 3 man defense). This is a tactic that utilizes outside "wingbacks" or "fullbacks" to get up and down the pitch on the outside, leaving possible vulnerability with only 3 to defend but opening up odd man situations in attack down the flanks. So far - teams that have played this defense have 8 wins, 2 draws, and no losses against teams playing a 4 man defense.
Without looking.... Who has conceded the least goals in the group stage (3 teams tied with only 1 goal in 3 games).....
Costa Rica, Belgium, and Mexico
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France to win WC +2500 (1 unit) France to reach quarterfinals +100 (1 unit)
A couple of notes before the game write-ups...
I originally picked Argentina to win the tournament. I no longer think they will win, in fact I think they will have trouble with every game they play from here on - and think they will have trouble with Switzerland. Their defense just isn't there, and so far they have had limited success finding Messi in the right spot. Aguerro is out, and I just don't see these things solving themselves in time for this tournament.
I really love the way France is playing, but with Germany, and a S American team in their future on the way to the final, they should be considered a long shot at best. Much better than 25-1, but no better than 10-1 or so.
For those interested in picking and betting a winner at this point, look at the bracket. The right side of the bracket is clearly lighter than the left.
In the last 2 world cups, the group winners are 13-3 overall against the second place teams in the round of 16.
In the last 2 world cups, there have been 4 out of 16 games in the round of 16 to go to extra time, with 2 of those going to penalties.
So far, the most successful tactic in the group stage has been the 5 man defense (sometimes referred to as 3 man defense). This is a tactic that utilizes outside "wingbacks" or "fullbacks" to get up and down the pitch on the outside, leaving possible vulnerability with only 3 to defend but opening up odd man situations in attack down the flanks. So far - teams that have played this defense have 8 wins, 2 draws, and no losses against teams playing a 4 man defense.
Without looking.... Who has conceded the least goals in the group stage (3 teams tied with only 1 goal in 3 games).....
Brazil / Chile - Brazil -1 in 90 mins -105 (2 units) - Brazil have won, but haven't impressed. Its not good enough that Brazil wins, they have enormous pressure to win impressively. Their defense is playing very well giving up only 2 goals in their first 3 games - but the offense has sputtered. But look closer - have they really?
They dominated their performance against Mexico while not being able to score, and blitzed Cameroon. Their real struggle was against Croatia scoring 3 very weak goals. If you look in to some team stats so far, Brail are only 10th out of 32 in shot totals - but first in shots on target by a very long way (70% on target) and first in goals / shots ratio - all of this with the performance of Mexico GK Ochoa. This opposed to Chile who have produced the 29th out of 32 in the tournament in shots and only slightly better in shots on target. Chile benefitted from a perfect team for them to play in Spain, which created lots of turnovers in key positions.
Chile play the 3 man defense I mentioned above with 2 wingbacks getting in to wide positions in attack. I just feel that the Brazil defense is more than capable of handling the wide attack and forcing Chile to attack up the center - which doesn't suit them. Chile will also keep up with the high press - which for example worked to perfection against a slow Spanish side and created turnovers and chances - but I don't see it working against Brazil. And when it doesn't work - you see what happens like in the Netherlands / Chile game - if their opposition can get it out of the back with one or two exit passes you have man advantages on the counterattack. Brazil should exploit this - and this is the key to the game.
Brazil have the skill and speed to make the connections between the back 4 and the attack quickly to beat the press - and create lots of scoring chances which they have already proven to be lethally effective. I wanted to like Chile here - they clearly have been an easy team to watch and the popular thought is that Brazil is not as good overall as advertised - but this is not the spot. Predicted final score is a repeat of WC 2010 - Brazil 3 Chile 0.
Colombia / Uruguay - Colombia to win in 90 mins +103 (2 units) - Age and experience vs youth and speed. That about sums this one up. Oh - and one other small thing - no Luis Suarez.
Colombia and Uruguay are no strangers splitting their two qualifiers against each other - each winning at home.
Colombia won their 3 group games impressively - but it has to be said - they were in a relatively easy group - possibly the easiest 3 games of anyone still in the tournament - not so much from talent although that argument can be made - but more that the three sides they faced were very similar tactically and Colombia could play basically the same throughout. But they did win - and looked good doing it. Their speed down the flanks is frightening with most of their 9 goals so far coming from wide positions due to speed.
Uruguay have prospered for much different reasons - being able to stay in close games and taking advantage of finishing at key moments late in games. I hate to sound cliché like and ESPN reporter - but it has to be said - the loss of Suarez is just huge. And it isn't speculation - we have clear evidence of this from the difference in their first game against CR without Suarez (they scored only on a PK), and then their games against England and Italy with him. Its no coincidence. Uruguay without Suarez is a slow build side - with little surprise in any way that they play - hoping to just outgrind their opposition. The defense is limited and immobile. Look at their first 3 games defensively - CR picked them apart in the air and ground, England should have scored more only missing wide open chances, and Italy is just the same type of team as Uruguay which greatly benefitted them - along with Italy playing for basically a draw. I fear for this defense against Colombia.
Uruguay are close to the bottom of the pack in shots on goal - even with Suarez - with only 10 in 3 games - amazingly scoring on 4 of the 10. But this has to be considered problematic - considering Suarez accounted for most of them.
I am aware that this is somewhat of a "square" or popular play. It is the obvious side. I get that. But the narrative is there for me to support it. I just don't see Uruguay having the guns or the stamina (lets not forget this is the 4th game in 2 weeks in extreme conditions). Predicted final score Colombia 2 Uruguay 0
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Brazil / Chile - Brazil -1 in 90 mins -105 (2 units) - Brazil have won, but haven't impressed. Its not good enough that Brazil wins, they have enormous pressure to win impressively. Their defense is playing very well giving up only 2 goals in their first 3 games - but the offense has sputtered. But look closer - have they really?
They dominated their performance against Mexico while not being able to score, and blitzed Cameroon. Their real struggle was against Croatia scoring 3 very weak goals. If you look in to some team stats so far, Brail are only 10th out of 32 in shot totals - but first in shots on target by a very long way (70% on target) and first in goals / shots ratio - all of this with the performance of Mexico GK Ochoa. This opposed to Chile who have produced the 29th out of 32 in the tournament in shots and only slightly better in shots on target. Chile benefitted from a perfect team for them to play in Spain, which created lots of turnovers in key positions.
Chile play the 3 man defense I mentioned above with 2 wingbacks getting in to wide positions in attack. I just feel that the Brazil defense is more than capable of handling the wide attack and forcing Chile to attack up the center - which doesn't suit them. Chile will also keep up with the high press - which for example worked to perfection against a slow Spanish side and created turnovers and chances - but I don't see it working against Brazil. And when it doesn't work - you see what happens like in the Netherlands / Chile game - if their opposition can get it out of the back with one or two exit passes you have man advantages on the counterattack. Brazil should exploit this - and this is the key to the game.
Brazil have the skill and speed to make the connections between the back 4 and the attack quickly to beat the press - and create lots of scoring chances which they have already proven to be lethally effective. I wanted to like Chile here - they clearly have been an easy team to watch and the popular thought is that Brazil is not as good overall as advertised - but this is not the spot. Predicted final score is a repeat of WC 2010 - Brazil 3 Chile 0.
Colombia / Uruguay - Colombia to win in 90 mins +103 (2 units) - Age and experience vs youth and speed. That about sums this one up. Oh - and one other small thing - no Luis Suarez.
Colombia and Uruguay are no strangers splitting their two qualifiers against each other - each winning at home.
Colombia won their 3 group games impressively - but it has to be said - they were in a relatively easy group - possibly the easiest 3 games of anyone still in the tournament - not so much from talent although that argument can be made - but more that the three sides they faced were very similar tactically and Colombia could play basically the same throughout. But they did win - and looked good doing it. Their speed down the flanks is frightening with most of their 9 goals so far coming from wide positions due to speed.
Uruguay have prospered for much different reasons - being able to stay in close games and taking advantage of finishing at key moments late in games. I hate to sound cliché like and ESPN reporter - but it has to be said - the loss of Suarez is just huge. And it isn't speculation - we have clear evidence of this from the difference in their first game against CR without Suarez (they scored only on a PK), and then their games against England and Italy with him. Its no coincidence. Uruguay without Suarez is a slow build side - with little surprise in any way that they play - hoping to just outgrind their opposition. The defense is limited and immobile. Look at their first 3 games defensively - CR picked them apart in the air and ground, England should have scored more only missing wide open chances, and Italy is just the same type of team as Uruguay which greatly benefitted them - along with Italy playing for basically a draw. I fear for this defense against Colombia.
Uruguay are close to the bottom of the pack in shots on goal - even with Suarez - with only 10 in 3 games - amazingly scoring on 4 of the 10. But this has to be considered problematic - considering Suarez accounted for most of them.
I am aware that this is somewhat of a "square" or popular play. It is the obvious side. I get that. But the narrative is there for me to support it. I just don't see Uruguay having the guns or the stamina (lets not forget this is the 4th game in 2 weeks in extreme conditions). Predicted final score Colombia 2 Uruguay 0
I totally agree with Columbia beating Uruguay I,m thinking 2-0 Columbia but I think the Brazil game will go into extra time and Chile pulling out the victory. Cha Baby!
DM
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I totally agree with Columbia beating Uruguay I,m thinking 2-0 Columbia but I think the Brazil game will go into extra time and Chile pulling out the victory. Cha Baby!
It's funny how , throughout much of my youth, Brazil used to impress a lot and not win much. Now they impress less but win more. I have Chile to win the whole thing at 40-1, but they aren't winning tomorrow.
Colombia sure feels like the sucker's side, and Uruguay seem to be able to muck up games like almost nobody else. Those old legs would look like an asset in PK's.
I think the US is under-valued, the Swiss even more so. Argentina has looked like doo-doo.
I gather Van has never been a big fan of mine, but I do want to thank him for sharing his insights into these games. If nothing else, I feel like I'm watching more intelligently. To put that another way, I'm losing my money far more responsibly this Cup than in Cups past.
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It's funny how , throughout much of my youth, Brazil used to impress a lot and not win much. Now they impress less but win more. I have Chile to win the whole thing at 40-1, but they aren't winning tomorrow.
Colombia sure feels like the sucker's side, and Uruguay seem to be able to muck up games like almost nobody else. Those old legs would look like an asset in PK's.
I think the US is under-valued, the Swiss even more so. Argentina has looked like doo-doo.
I gather Van has never been a big fan of mine, but I do want to thank him for sharing his insights into these games. If nothing else, I feel like I'm watching more intelligently. To put that another way, I'm losing my money far more responsibly this Cup than in Cups past.
It's funny how , throughout much of my youth, Brazil used to impress a lot and not win much. Now they impress less but win more. I have Chile to win the whole thing at 40-1, but they aren't winning tomorrow.
Colombia sure feels like the sucker's side, and Uruguay seem to be able to muck up games like almost nobody else. Those old legs would look like an asset in PK's.
I think the US is under-valued, the Swiss even more so. Argentina has looked like doo-doo.
I gather Van has never been a big fan of mine, but I do want to thank him for sharing his insights into these games. If nothing else, I feel like I'm watching more intelligently. To put that another way, I'm losing my money far more responsibly this Cup than in Cups past.
You "gather" totally incorrectly. I am actually a fan of yours - in that you are one of several here that I recognize and read.
Sorry I gave you that impression.
(Other than your affection for ManCity)
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Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:
It's funny how , throughout much of my youth, Brazil used to impress a lot and not win much. Now they impress less but win more. I have Chile to win the whole thing at 40-1, but they aren't winning tomorrow.
Colombia sure feels like the sucker's side, and Uruguay seem to be able to muck up games like almost nobody else. Those old legs would look like an asset in PK's.
I think the US is under-valued, the Swiss even more so. Argentina has looked like doo-doo.
I gather Van has never been a big fan of mine, but I do want to thank him for sharing his insights into these games. If nothing else, I feel like I'm watching more intelligently. To put that another way, I'm losing my money far more responsibly this Cup than in Cups past.
You "gather" totally incorrectly. I am actually a fan of yours - in that you are one of several here that I recognize and read.
Mr ZAk good luck with all your "knockout" round picks..
BRAZIL definitely has the "HF" advantage and surely will be tough to beat down "THE STRETCH"....... You know who I love, DUTCH and frenchmen......GL w /25-1
More importantly, fellow degen's..........UNDERSTAND the wagering lines, totals, 90 MINUTE/END OF REGULATION...lala... lines...draws..extra time rules..etc..... I'm just trying to INFORM you how these lines work..
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Mr ZAk good luck with all your "knockout" round picks..
BRAZIL definitely has the "HF" advantage and surely will be tough to beat down "THE STRETCH"....... You know who I love, DUTCH and frenchmen......GL w /25-1
More importantly, fellow degen's..........UNDERSTAND the wagering lines, totals, 90 MINUTE/END OF REGULATION...lala... lines...draws..extra time rules..etc..... I'm just trying to INFORM you how these lines work..
Van, interested to hear how you decide or cap between 90 min and "to advance" lines. My decision is made easy because 5dimes has 20 to 25 cent "to advance" lines but what if they're both affordable?
Also USA 100-1 or Swiss 150-1 are on the right side of the bracket could be worth a stab.
Good luck rest of way.
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Van, interested to hear how you decide or cap between 90 min and "to advance" lines. My decision is made easy because 5dimes has 20 to 25 cent "to advance" lines but what if they're both affordable?
Also USA 100-1 or Swiss 150-1 are on the right side of the bracket could be worth a stab.
James Rodriguez on Columbia is a rare talent. Can't believe he is only 22. He has the skills of a Ronaldo or Messi and yet plays with the freedom and carefreeness of someone kicking the ball around in his backyard. I'm hoping he continues his magical run against the stingy Uruguayans.
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James Rodriguez on Columbia is a rare talent. Can't believe he is only 22. He has the skills of a Ronaldo or Messi and yet plays with the freedom and carefreeness of someone kicking the ball around in his backyard. I'm hoping he continues his magical run against the stingy Uruguayans.
Couldn't agree more with you on both Van. Brazil will be looking to make a statement here and I think Chile's open style will play right into their hands. They may give one up and win 3-1 but I see a clear win for them.
Suarez's absence just kills Uruguay IMO and Columbia looks in very good form. Can you imagine them with Falcao?! I like a 2-0 game.
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Couldn't agree more with you on both Van. Brazil will be looking to make a statement here and I think Chile's open style will play right into their hands. They may give one up and win 3-1 but I see a clear win for them.
Suarez's absence just kills Uruguay IMO and Columbia looks in very good form. Can you imagine them with Falcao?! I like a 2-0 game.
Van, interested to hear how you decide or cap between 90 min and "to advance" lines. My decision is made easy because 5dimes has 20 to 25 cent "to advance" lines but what if they're both affordable?
Also USA 100-1 or Swiss 150-1 are on the right side of the bracket could be worth a stab.
Good luck rest of way.
Honestly - there is a lot of gut feel involved. I certainly don't want to be involved in a "to advance" on a to advance with a favorite that gets in to ET or a shootout - so I generally take dogs on the to advance line more than favs.
I don't have a formula though...
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Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:
Van, interested to hear how you decide or cap between 90 min and "to advance" lines. My decision is made easy because 5dimes has 20 to 25 cent "to advance" lines but what if they're both affordable?
Also USA 100-1 or Swiss 150-1 are on the right side of the bracket could be worth a stab.
Good luck rest of way.
Honestly - there is a lot of gut feel involved. I certainly don't want to be involved in a "to advance" on a to advance with a favorite that gets in to ET or a shootout - so I generally take dogs on the to advance line more than favs.
Mexico / Netherlands - Mexico PK and +.5 +102 (1 unit), Mexico to advance +160 (1.5 units) - I said this at the beginning of the tournament in my preview: "I don’t really see how Mexico just suddenly flips a switch from their horrendous qualifying campaign." It is clear now that that was misguided.
Mexico's success can be largely attributed - once again - to their 3 man defense with speedy wing play. It is concerning that they only scored 4 goals - although they probably had 2 in the Cameroon game that should have counted. But they didn't score against Croatia until late when Croatia was in attack at all costs mode, but eventually got 3 goals.
This is going to be an extremely interesting tactical matchup as Louis Van Gaal has proven to be the tournaments chameleon - and to great success - altering his tactics drastically in every game and changing personnel to match the style. We might see both sides take the 3 man defense approach - which will be decided down the flanks - but I think the Netherlands will come out with a high line with 4 in the back and challenge Mexico to get in behind them - like they played against Spain.
The Netherlands weakness is clearly on defense - and although they swept their group play - you can point to the Australia game to show just how much trouble the Dutch had defending outside in attacks. If the Mexicans can get space and speed down the wings - which I believe they will - they should have lots of success against a Dutch defense that struggles against this exact type of play. On the opposite side of the pitch - RVP is back and so is Robben - and they have proven to be very dangerous - but the key to stopping them is playing a little bit more compact and central on defense and not allowing the 50 yard runs that they have been able to make on defenses allowing them space by playing high lines. I assume Mexico will know this - and will be well scouted on not allowing the Robben cut ins or RVP to have space inside the box. Let the other guys beat you - and let the Dutch beat you by either crosses - but do not let them get in behind you.
I see this as a very even match, and possibly extra time and PK's. Just think the Dutch are getting too much love in the betting line based on their 3 impressive wins.... Predicted final score 1-1 in 90, Mexico advance in ET or PK's.
Greece / Costa Rica - Greece PK +116 (.5 unit) and Greece to advance +110 (.5 unit) - What can you say about this one? It is definitely the stinker of the round of 16, and should be a very tight low scoring game decided by one or two events. There is not a big tactical battle in this one - it is going to be defense first and counterattack second for both.
This is a line play for me on a coinflip type of game. CR has a speed advantage up front but Greece have the experience at sitting back and counterattacking - so if CR get too adventurous they could easily get punished. Just cant see this being anything but a 1 goal game. There are better wagers ahead.... Predicted final score Greece 1 CR 0
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Mexico / Netherlands - Mexico PK and +.5 +102 (1 unit), Mexico to advance +160 (1.5 units) - I said this at the beginning of the tournament in my preview: "I don’t really see how Mexico just suddenly flips a switch from their horrendous qualifying campaign." It is clear now that that was misguided.
Mexico's success can be largely attributed - once again - to their 3 man defense with speedy wing play. It is concerning that they only scored 4 goals - although they probably had 2 in the Cameroon game that should have counted. But they didn't score against Croatia until late when Croatia was in attack at all costs mode, but eventually got 3 goals.
This is going to be an extremely interesting tactical matchup as Louis Van Gaal has proven to be the tournaments chameleon - and to great success - altering his tactics drastically in every game and changing personnel to match the style. We might see both sides take the 3 man defense approach - which will be decided down the flanks - but I think the Netherlands will come out with a high line with 4 in the back and challenge Mexico to get in behind them - like they played against Spain.
The Netherlands weakness is clearly on defense - and although they swept their group play - you can point to the Australia game to show just how much trouble the Dutch had defending outside in attacks. If the Mexicans can get space and speed down the wings - which I believe they will - they should have lots of success against a Dutch defense that struggles against this exact type of play. On the opposite side of the pitch - RVP is back and so is Robben - and they have proven to be very dangerous - but the key to stopping them is playing a little bit more compact and central on defense and not allowing the 50 yard runs that they have been able to make on defenses allowing them space by playing high lines. I assume Mexico will know this - and will be well scouted on not allowing the Robben cut ins or RVP to have space inside the box. Let the other guys beat you - and let the Dutch beat you by either crosses - but do not let them get in behind you.
I see this as a very even match, and possibly extra time and PK's. Just think the Dutch are getting too much love in the betting line based on their 3 impressive wins.... Predicted final score 1-1 in 90, Mexico advance in ET or PK's.
Greece / Costa Rica - Greece PK +116 (.5 unit) and Greece to advance +110 (.5 unit) - What can you say about this one? It is definitely the stinker of the round of 16, and should be a very tight low scoring game decided by one or two events. There is not a big tactical battle in this one - it is going to be defense first and counterattack second for both.
This is a line play for me on a coinflip type of game. CR has a speed advantage up front but Greece have the experience at sitting back and counterattacking - so if CR get too adventurous they could easily get punished. Just cant see this being anything but a 1 goal game. There are better wagers ahead.... Predicted final score Greece 1 CR 0
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You know who I love, DUTCH and frenchmen......GL w /25-1 
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