World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....

Argentina -1/2 -242 -> 12.10u/5u

England -1/2 -182  ->9.10u/5u

Just following the guidelines laid out by Van...

Casual poster to Covers and casual fan to international soccer but had to add the props to Van for the picks and write ups!

Good day so far.  Just need a shootout for the final game!

Thanks again!

Argentina -1/2 -242 -> 12.10u/5u

England -1/2 -182  ->9.10u/5u

Just following the guidelines laid out by Van...

Billy!! Your Argi bet cashed, which means you hit your target of 15K after the first two days!!  Time to stop buddy, you can still cancel that England bet...

That's not how I roll HC...besides I lost that England match and now am only up 6.30 units.......ROBERT GREEN should be embarressed and ashamed..LOL!!!

Group B:  Argentina has the most individual talent in the tournament.  The are loaded with players who have big game experience, and they have playmakers that can single handedly take over games.  Just look at the forwards:  Messi, Milito, Tevez – now that is firepower – and it doesn’t stop there – with a rock solid defense and world class players at every postion – on paper this is the best team at the WC.  Now enter their coach – Maradona.  The team is as erratic as their coach’s personality – as shown by their 4^th place finishing in qualification and barely even making this tournament.  They lost to Bolivia a year ago 6-1.  Im banking on them overcoming their coaching shortcomings – and making the finals.  Argentina get 9 points out of this group.  The three other teams in the group are pretty similar in terms of talent and capabilities.  Greece plays their usual attempt to knock off Italian soccer – by playing defensive all game and trying to steal goals in transition.  This led to scoring 10 goals in 10 qualification games, but only giving up 10.  But they did ride this to success in winning one of the biggest upsets in any major soccer tournament ever in the Euro 04.  Nigeria is overrated and riding on their reputation.  They will still try to outscore you, but I don’t see them matching up well against Greece or even South Korea.  6 months ago they went to PK’s with Zambia and lost to Ghana and Egypt in the ACON.   They will be playing 3 disciplined teams – Nigeria bows out early.  South Korea has done little outside of their home WC – and I don’t expect much more from them here – will not be advancing.

 Handicapping analysis and bets:  I will be on Argentina to win the group at -220 (2 units), and Nigeria NOT to advance at -118 (2 units).  Just cant see any other result except Argentina winning, and I will take Greece and SK against Nigeria at almost even to advance.

Predicted Group B Finish (country, points):

1.  Argentina 9

2.  Greece 6

3.  Nigeria 3

4.  South Korea 0

One note before I post day 3 picks....

I make specific bets, at specific odds.  If I post that I have a team +1 goal, that is exactly what I have.  If you choose to only take +.5 because of whatever reason, I cant control that - and is the main reason I dont post soccer plays throughout the year - too many people get confused about the multiple betting options - and I dont like dealing with all of the mess it creates.

Anyway - I better post Sundays games now - because I plan on being shitfaced by 10am tomorrow......

1.  SA / Mex over 2 -122 (1.5 units) -  PUSH
2.  Uruguay +.5 -109 (2 units)
3.  SK / Greec under 2 -103 (2 units) and 0-0 at +600 (.5 unit)
4.  Nigeria -200 (2 units to win 1 unit)
5.  USA / Eng over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units)

SUNDAY:

6.   Slovenia / Algeria - no bet.  I see this as being a defensive game, and I think it is priced about right.  Slovenia should be a slight favorite, and the total should be low - so I dont see a betting opportunity on this one other than maybe a draw at +230.  I will go to school on this one for future games.  Predicted final score Algeria 1 Slovenia 1.

7.  Serbia / Ghana - Serbia to win +116 (2 units).  Serbia should be able to open up Ghana with constant pressure in the midfield, and expose a defensive lapse or two.  I dont see Ghana getting many chances on net without Essien as the quarterback - and the rock solid defense of Serbia will frustrate the Ghana offense all day.  I see this as being one of those 1-0 or 2-0 games you look back and think that Ghana never had a chance - Serbia gets the first goal and locks it up on D....  Predicted final score Serbia 1-0.

8.  Germany / Australia - Australia +1 +106 (1 unit).  Im not thrilled about this one, Australia is largely untested coming out of their new qualification group - but they are basically a very similar team that made a run 4 years ago - against a German squad that might lack punch.  Add that to this being the first game for both sides - and I will take a small shot here that Germany wont win by multiple goals.  Better chance of a draw here than multiple goal win IMO, but most likely result is....  Predicted final score Germany 2 Australia 1.

GL ALL AND GO USA!!!