World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....

7.  Serbia +116 (2 units)

Germany to score in both halves +157 ->3u/3.71u

Germany/Austrailia u/3 -243 -> 7.29/3

+6.30 units for WC...

YUCKOOOOOOOOO-->lost 3.58 units...didn't expect Germany to score that much!!

Now +2.72 units for WC

Been a Superb start for me so far (4 wins, 1 push and 1 loss). My predicated results for the next 4 Games are below:                         

My actual Bets are:

1) Germany - 175 (not overly confident)

2) Holland v Denmark over 1.5 Goals @ -300 (very big bet).  3) Cameron to win to nil @ +220.

4) Italy Draw no Bet -200 (another big bet, if game is drawn you get your money back).

Predicted scores:

Germany 1 Australia 0

Holland 3 Denmark 1

Cameron 2 Japan 0

Italy 1 Paraguay 0

Just recovering from yesterday.  What a great result for the USA.

As far as the over is concerned - I just rewatched the game on DVR and there could have been many more goals - so not too upset with the wager.....

Relatively quiet day today - picks for Monday up soon.

Group D:  For my money, Group D is the closest matched group from top to bottom of them all.  Germany is the favorite to take the group and advance for the millionth time in a row, but it wont be a cakewalk for them.   Captain Ballack is out, but more importantly is depth and talent – this squad just isn’t as talented as previous German squads – and I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see them get squeezed out of advancing – but then again they always advance and almost always far – so on pedigree alone they are worth a look.  They qualified easily from a group that really only included Russia as any competition – only giving up 5 goals in 10 games – but Im not sold on them having the goods to go very far.  Serbia have the potential to leave their mark on this tournament – and that starts with a very solid defense led by Vidic of ManU.  They came out of a tough qualification group that included France, Romania, Austria, and Lithuania – coming out on top – and only giving up 8 goals in 10 games (2 of which were against Lithuania after they qualified and were resting players).  They are also fairly potent up front, and can open up the offense through midfield possession quite nicely.  I like the balance of this side.  Australia is very similar to the side that got screwed 4 years ago on a dubious penalty call on a patented Italian dive in extra time.  This team is also dangerous, and could easily make a run with Kewell, Emerton, Schwartzer, and Cahill anchoring a side that is pretty loaded with international players.  Ghana is probably the best talented African team from top to bottom – but can never seem to pull it together.  They did well 4 years ago – and made it to the final of the ACN in January.  Essien is out – and you cant underscore how big of a deal that is.  I think they fall victim to a very tough group – and have moments of lack of concentration and typical harsh play which will cost them.

Handicapping Analysis and Bets:  I will take a small shot on Serbia stealing the group at +330 for .5 unit, and Germany NOT to advance at +375 for .5 unit.  Otherwise – I don’t see much to bet here.

Predicted Group D Finish (country, points):

1.  Germany 5

2.  Serbia 5

3.  Ghana 2

4.  Australia 2