World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....

Well that was a big fucking win.  Huge for me.

Thanks all for the nice words.

Picks for Friday coming up in a few mins....

GREAT DAY FOR YOU VAN!!!

      CONGRATS!!!!!!!

20-14 if I bet all Ties and unders and 18-10 before todays games . I think this is a good formula to start betting with the better teams starting to play each other until the round of 16. There will be less goal scoring and even more draws

Current Record 7-5
Up +6.5 units

Previous games...

1.  SA / Mex over 2 -122 (1.5 units) -  PUSH
2.  Uruguay +.5 -109 (2 units) - WIN
3.  SK / Greec under 2 -103 (2 units) and 0-0 at +600 (.5 unit) - PUSH (lose .5 unit)
4.  Argentina -200 (2 units to win 1 unit) - WIN
5.  USA / Eng over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6.  SLV / ALG - no bet
7.  Serbia +116 (2 units) - LOSS
8.  Australia +1 +106 (1 unit) - LOSS
9.  Netherlands -180 (1 unit) - WIN
10.  Cameroon +112 (.5 unit) - LOSS
11.  Paraguay +.5 (2.5 units) - WIN
12.  Slovakia -.5 -200 (risked 1 unit) - LOSS
13.  Ivory Coast / PTGL - no bet
14.  Bzl / NK - no bet
15.  Chile (2 units) - WIN
16.  Switz +1.5 (.5 unit) - WIN
17.  Uruguay PK -140 (5 units) - WIN

Futures...

1.  Uruguay to advance +110 (2 units)
2.  Uruguay to win group A +400 (.5 unit)
3.  Argentina to win group B -220 (2 units)
4.  Nigeria NOT to advance -118 (2 units)
5.  England to win group C -320 (2 units)
6.  USA NOT to advance +112 (3 units)
7.  Serbia to win group D +330 (.5 unit)
8.  Germany NOT to advance +387 (.5 unit)
9.  Netherlands to win group E -145 (4 units)
10.  Denmark to advance +105 (1 unit)
11.  Japan zero points +360 (1 unit) - LOSS
12.  Paraguay win group F +340 (1.5 units)
13.  NZ no poings +100 (1 unit) - SICK LOSS
14.  Portugal to advane -110 (1.5 units)
15.  NK zero points -140 (2 units)
16.  Switz to advance +160 (1 unit)
17.  Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18.  Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)
19.  No african team to advance +1200 (1 unit)
20.  No african team qtr finals +165 (2 units)

Thursday June 17

18.  Argentina / Korea - Over 2.5 +108 (1 unit) - I guess you have to have balls or stupidity to bet an over on this tournament, but this might be a good spot to start.  Argentina should have scored a bunch against Nigeria - good goalkeeping kept them from converting - along with first game mistakes.  I fully expect to see S Korea playing for a draw here - as that result would greatly help them qualify for the next round - and I think that style will hurt them here.  Once the Argentines score - the game will open up greatly - but as we saw today with N Korea a team that wants to play defensively can often keep a team at bay for long periods of time.  Im banking on an Argentina goal in the first half, and open play from there - I do think Argentina wins this game but the price is too steep for me - so a small bet on the over for me.  Final score prediction Argentina 2-1.

19.  Nigeria / Greece - Greece +.5 -109 (2 units) - Once again, sticking to my pretournament guns on this one.  I dont think Greece is as bad as they looked against SK, and I dont think Nigeria is as good as they looked against Argentina.  And that presents a good betting line.  I am most concerned that Greece might press out of their usual defensive tactic and try to be something they are not - but Nigeria will be doing the same as both of these teams need a win - a draw wont suit either terribly well (although it is better for NIgeria than Greece).  This is another hold my balls and cough plays - Predicted final score Greece 1 Nigeria 1.

20.  France / Mexico - France +138 (3 units risked) - I think the line has finally risen above value for France - based on the perception (rightfully so) that they cant play together.  But I think that Mexico's defensive lapses will provide the open door that France needs to pull it together.  Mexico will be overmatched - and the lack of playmaking that we saw against S Africa will kill them here - France is disciplined on defense and will not let up a goal like S Africa did because of lack of concentration.  France individual talent lifts them here - Predicted final score France 2-0.

NOTE - I HAVE BUMPED UP FRANCE FROM 1.5 UNITS TO 3 UNITS.  I THINK THEY THRASH MEXICO TOMORROW.

Friday June 18

21.  Germany / Serbia - Serbia +.5 +140 (1 unit) - This line has crept down, mostly because it started way too high based on Germany's first performance (which was undeniably great), and Serbia's first performance (which was undeniably awful).  Germany is everyones "best team" at the WC so far - a label that often does not translate in to long term success (ask the Dutch, or the Italians).  So Im going with my pretournament feeling on this one - and betting in to a value line that is way too high.  If Germany come out and control the possession like they did against Australia and pass at 85%+, they will win, but I look for a desperate Serbia team to come out with something to prove and look to be more offensive and not just sit back like they did much of the Ghana game.  Next week, everyone will have a new "best team".  Predicted final score Germany 1 Serbia 1.

22.  USA / Slovenia -   Slovenia +.5 (1 unit) - I will go against my heart here, and gladly lose this one to see the USA go on to win.  I just dont see how the USA wins this game outright 56 out of 100 times.  Both teams will think they have to win - the USA really could get a draw out of this and feel OK about their chances to advance, but Slovenia needs a win here - a draw doesnt suit them so well with England on deck.  I just dont buy in to the USA being able to create enough open play to create chances on net - and I still feel that they are very vulnerable at the back - even with Howards tremendous play.  I hope the USA win, but my head tells me that taking the odds here is the right play.  Final predicted score - USA 1 Slovenia 1

23.  England / Algeria - Over 2.5 +108 (1 unit) - At the risk of repeating myself, England dont have a defense, and on top of that Ledley King is now out of the tournament, leaving a back line that is plugging holes and bailing water.  England can and will score, and Algeria will feel a sense of urgency with their first round loss - and cant afford to sit back and defend.  There should be lots of open play in this one.  After this one, everyone will think England is back.  Predicted Final score - England 3 Algeria 1.

GL all

BTW - a few interesting stats....

**African teams have 1 win, 2 draws, 4 losses and have scored 2 goals in 7 games.

**South American teams have 4 wins, 0 losses, and 2 draws and have scored 8 goals in 6 games.

Very interesting stats indeed.  Coming into the tournament you were about the only afrosceptic that I saw on the internet and in the soccer media---almost everybody had one or more of the African teams making a big statement at World Cup 2010.  There's still a long way to go in this tournament, but so far it could hardly be going much worse for the African countries. 

I heard a TV commentator the other day--can't remember which one--say that a possible reason for the extremely low scoring of WC 2010 is that none of the teams want to lose their opening match because it just about kills your hopes of advancing,  Teams will gladly settle for draws---as a result very few teams took chances moving forward and played not to lose rather than to win.  Do you think we're about to see a marked increase in goal output the rest of the group stages? 

Thanks for the 3-0 day, VZ.

Best ofluck the rest of the way.

Good luck Van

Another Interesting stat

Out of 17 games played so far....

7 favorites have won

6 ties  (out of which 2 were upset ties...USA, NZ) notice I didn't include the SA Tie as host team in first game hasn't lost in how many WC

4 Upsets

Leads to believe that the safest bet is +0.5 depending on the odds

As well out of the 17 games only 3 have gone over the 2.5 goals... guess just like in basketball defence rules!