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World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....

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Posted: #676

Doesnt it seem like Brazil only -.5 is begging you to take Brazil.  I like the IC +.5 bet.

 
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Posted: #677
 
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Posted: #678
Paraguay ALL OVER IT.5k! biggest bet of Tourney so far!!
 
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Posted: #679
winnah winnah chicken dinnah on paraguay
 
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Posted: #680
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

3-0 today, 10 wins in last 12 

Current Record 14-7
Up 27.48 units, Down 11.5 units
TOTAL - Up +15.98 units

Previous games...

1.  SA / Mex over 2 -122 (1.5 units) -  PUSH
2.  Uruguay +.5 -109 (2 units) - WIN
3.  SK / Greec under 2 -103 (2 units) and 0-0 at +600 (.5 unit) - PUSH (lose .5 unit)
4.  Argentina -200 (2 units to win 1 unit) - WIN
5.  USA / Eng over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6.  SLV / ALG - no bet
7.  Serbia +116 (2 units) - LOSS
8.  Australia +1 +106 (1 unit) - LOSS
9.  Netherlands -180 (1 unit) - WIN
10.  Cameroon +112 (.5 unit) - LOSS
11.  Paraguay +.5 (2.5 units) - WIN
12.  Slovakia -.5 -200 (risked 1 unit) - LOSS
13.  Ivory Coast / PTGL - no bet
14.  Bzl / NK - no bet
15.  Chile (2 units) - WIN
16.  Switz +1.5 (.5 unit) - WIN
17.  Uruguay PK -140 (5 units) - WIN
18.  Arg / SK over +108 (1 unit) - WIN
19.  Greece +.5 (2 units) - WIN
20.  France +138 (3 units) - LOSS
21.  Serbia +.5 +140 (1 unit) - WIN
22.  Slovenia +.5 -116 (1unit) - WIN
23.  Eng / Alg over 2.5 +108 (1 unit) - LOSS
24.  Netherlands -200 (2 units) - WIN
25.  Australia +.5 -112 (3 units) - WIN
26.  Denmark PK -122 (3 units) - WIN

Futures...

1.  Uruguay to advance +110 (2 units)
2.  Uruguay to win group A +400 (.5 unit)
3.  Argentina to win group B -220 (2 units)
4.  Nigeria NOT to advance -118 (2 units)
5.  England to win group C -320 (2 units)
6.  USA NOT to advance +112 (3 units)
7.  Serbia to win group D +330 (.5 unit)
8.  Germany NOT to advance +387 (.5 unit)
9.  Netherlands to win group E -145 (4 units)
10.  Denmark to advance +105 (1 unit)
11.  Japan zero points +360 (1 unit) - LOSS
12.  Paraguay win group F +340 (1.5 units)
13.  NZ no poings +100 (1 unit) - SICK LOSS
14.  Portugal to advane -110 (1.5 units)
15.  NK zero points -140 (2 units)
16.  Switz to advance +160 (1 unit)
17.  Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18.  Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)
19.  No african team to advance +1200 (1 unit)
20.  No african team qtr finals +165 (2 units)

Sunday June 20

27.  Paraguay / Slovakia - Paraguay +112 (3 units) - All things point to Paraguay here for me - the devastating way Slovakia dropped points to New Zealand at the death - along with a Paraguayan team that must be feeling very good about themselves after holding the world champs to a draw.  There is talk that Roque Santa Cruz might start, and Cordozo is ready too.  Marek Hamsik will see much of the same close marking and frustration he found against NZ in Paraguay - and Paraguay will wear down Slovakia - a team that is desperate for a win and will not settle for a draw here with Italy on deck - which will open them up at the back.  Only worry here is that Paraguay would probably be happy with a draw. Predicted Final score - Paraguay 2-0.

28.  Italy / New Zealand - No Bet - I dont see much to bet here - I thought about a small play on Italy -1.5 but I came to my senses.  Buffon is definitely out, and Italy love to play in 1 goal games - I just cant see them not winning here - but by how much?  Predicted final score - Italy 2-0.

29.  Brazil / Ivory Coast - Ivory Coast +.5 +130 (.5 unit) - This is a straight value play - just think this price is a little high.  Im not sure Brazil is clicking yet, and if the IC plays a full 90 they might just hold them here.  The scary part is that I think the IC would be happy with a 1 goal loss - as they really are battling it out with Portugal for the 2nd spot and might have to beat them on goal differential - so just a mini bet for me - and I wouldnt bet this any lower than about +120 or so.  Predicted final score - Brazil 1 IC 1.

GL all



Great call with Paraguay.  Exact score was 2-0, continue on this hot roll Van....thanks for your picks and insights
 
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Posted: #681


Come on Van.  Give us an Italy/New Zealand play.  No bases to bet yet
 
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Posted: #682
YOU ARE THE MANNN
 
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Posted: #683

 
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Posted: #684

this van guy doesn't know much about soccer............

 

 

 
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Posted: #685

FANTASTIC CALL ON THAT FIRST GAME!!

...Now if Italy can get their crap together!!!!!

......I also need 3rd game to stay u/3!!

         If you are a father.....HAPPY FATHERS DAY!!!!!!!

 
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Posted: #686
[Quote: Originally Posted by billyloco]

FANTASTIC CALL ON THAT FIRST GAME!!

...Now if Italy can get their crap together!!!!!

......I also need 3rd game to stay u/3!!

         If you are a father.....HAPPY FATHERS DAY!!!!!!!

[/Quote]ITALY SCORES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #687
Van great job man, Thanks for the ride.


 
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Posted: #688
 
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Posted: #689

Van DA MAN superb job all tournament. To cap such a difficult sport is VERY impressive. You deserve the plaudits you are getting. I have been tailing you, saying nothing and making serious money. Can't thank you enough ..

Maybe if you come to the boxing section I can repay you? I hit around 75% for the past 3 years on covers in boxing, so hopefully I can help you, the way you have helped me..

 
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Posted: #690

Count me in with all the other happy tailers, VZ

And thanks especially for so much posting iin advance. I had to away and away from computer but was still able to get bets down and build up the bankroll.

 
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Posted: #691
keep it up van
 
Legend
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Posted: #692

Thanks all for the nice words - too many to list - but thanks to all.

Lets keep on winning, only about halfway through the games.....

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #693

Current Record 15-8
Up 30.84 units, Down 12 units
TOTAL - Up +18.84 units

Previous games...

1.  SA / Mex over 2 -122 (1.5 units) -  PUSH
2.  Uruguay +.5 -109 (2 units) - WIN
3.  SK / Greec under 2 -103 (2 units) and 0-0 at +600 (.5 unit) - PUSH (lose .5 unit)
4.  Argentina -200 (2 units to win 1 unit) - WIN
5.  USA / Eng over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6.  SLV / ALG - no bet
7.  Serbia +116 (2 units) - LOSS
8.  Australia +1 +106 (1 unit) - LOSS
9.  Netherlands -180 (1 unit) - WIN
10.  Cameroon +112 (.5 unit) - LOSS
11.  Paraguay +.5 (2.5 units) - WIN
12.  Slovakia -.5 -200 (risked 1 unit) - LOSS
13.  Ivory Coast / PTGL - no bet
14.  Bzl / NK - no bet
15.  Chile (2 units) - WIN
16.  Switz +1.5 (.5 unit) - WIN
17.  Uruguay PK -140 (5 units) - WIN
18.  Arg / SK over +108 (1 unit) - WIN
19.  Greece +.5 (2 units) - WIN
20.  France +138 (3 units) - LOSS
21.  Serbia +.5 +140 (1 unit) - WIN
22.  Slovenia +.5 -116 (1unit) - WIN
23.  Eng / Alg over 2.5 +108 (1 unit) - LOSS
24.  Netherlands -200 (2 units) - WIN
25.  Australia +.5 -112 (3 units) - WIN
26.  Denmark PK -122 (3 units) - WIN
27.  Paraguay -.5 +112 (3 units) - WIN
28.  Italy/NZ - No Bet
29.  CIV +.5 +130 (.5 unit) - LOSS

Futures...

1.  Uruguay to advance +110 (2 units)
2.  Uruguay to win group A +400 (.5 unit)
3.  Argentina to win group B -220 (2 units)
4.  Nigeria NOT to advance -118 (2 units)
5.  England to win group C -320 (2 units)
6.  USA NOT to advance +112 (3 units)
7.  Serbia to win group D +330 (.5 unit)
8.  Germany NOT to advance +387 (.5 unit)
9.  Netherlands to win group E -145 (4 units)
10.  Denmark to advance +105 (1 unit)
11.  Japan zero points +360 (1 unit) - LOSS
12.  Paraguay win group F +340 (1.5 units)
13.  NZ no poings +100 (1 unit) - SICK LOSS
14.  Portugal to advane -110 (1.5 units)
15.  NK zero points -140 (2 units)
16.  Switz to advance +160 (1 unit)
17.  Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18.  Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)
19.  No african team to advance +1200 (1 unit)
20.  No african team qtr finals +165 (2 units)

Monday June 21....

A very quiet Monday ahead for me.... On Monday, we reach the midway point of this tournament in terms of number of games - already.....

30.  Portugal / North Korea - No Bet - At first glance, I thought Portugal was cheap here at about -250, but Im going to go to school on NK first game and pass on this one.  I rewatched the Brazil / NK game - and was actually quite impressed with NK discipline and shape - and to be honest - they are an unknown entity to almost everyone (including me) and Im not willing to bet my own money on reputation alone.  Based on their performance against Brazil - if Portugal plan on being one dimensional with Ronaldo trying to beat 5 players and shoot - the Koreans should be able to stop that.  Deco is out - he is the Portuguese playmaker - and we have seen how teams struggle against disciplined defensive sides with a lack of a playmaker.  I would guess that the Portuguese win here - but that is all that it is - a guess - and I dont see how anyone handicapping this game could honestly say differently - I will save my money for better opportunities ahead.  Predicted Final score - Portugal 1-0.

31.  Chile / Switzerland - No Bet - From a handicapping standpoint, this might be the most interesting game of the tournament to analyze.  You couldnt have 2 teams with more opposite styles of play.  The Swiss Red Brick Wall comes in to this game with 5 successive shutouts (yes, no goals allowed in 5 previous WC games).  But there are some issues in that defense - with Senderos getting hurt and out of the tournament - the Swiss will be without their best defender and possibly their best player.  I think the Swiss might have punched above their weight in the first game against Spain - they are very limited on offense - but I dont want to bet against a team that has gone 480 successive minutes without conceding - even if they have injuries to their top 2 players.  Chlie on the other hand is soccers version of the run and gun - they will try to outscore you.  So if the Swiss are likely to score on anyone - it would be this Chilean side.  I wrote in my original preview that this would be the game to decide who advances - but with the Swiss winning against Spain, they would be thrilled with a draw in this game with Honduras on deck.  Chile on the other hand will be gunning for a win here, with Spain on deck - the result is much more important for Chile.  So every time I come up with a reason to bet one side, it is counterbalanced by the other - style, talent, injuries, motivation - they all even out for me in the end - so the only possible bet for me would be to bet the Swiss because they are a small dog - but it worries me that the Swiss could lose this game and easily advance by beating Honduras in their last game - so Im going to pass.  Predicted final score - Chile 1 Switzerland 1 

32.  Spain / Honduras - No Bet - another game where initially I wanted to lay 2 goals with an angry Spain against a JV Honduras squad - but then thought better of it.  But honestly - that is the only possible play I see here - and I think Spain might just lay it on them - but the prospects of having to win by 3 goals in this tournament just dont let me do it.  I think the key to the margin for Spain will be when they score the first goal - if they score in the first half hour - look out......  Predicted final score - Spain 3 Honduras 0.

Lots of nothing from me today - but more to come for the final games starting Tuesday.

GL all.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #694
Van I am going to tail you here. Thinking of playing Portugal to win to Nil @evens. I like Chile and Switzerland to draw as well BUT the South Americans have been coping better then the European teams so might look at Chile Draw no bet @ -175. Think I would prefer to be on Chile's side here..I agree with Spain v Honduras might play on the 3-0 scoreline. As always great stuff
 
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Posted: #695

Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:

Van I am going to tail you here. Thinking of playing Portugal to win to Nil @evens. I like Chile and Switzerland to draw as well BUT the South Americans have been coping better then the European teams so might look at Chile Draw no bet @ -175. Think I would prefer to be on Chile's side here..I agree with Spain v Honduras might play on the 3-0 scoreline. As always great stuff

Well, thats not really tailing me - if you tailed me you wouldnt put a single bet in on Monday.....

But good luck with whatever you choose - thanks for the compliments....

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #696
Thanks for the post - "no Plays" can be just as valuable as picking a side or a total
 
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Posted: #697
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Well, thats not really tailing me - if you tailed me you wouldnt put a single bet in on Monday.....

But good luck with whatever you choose - thanks for the compliments....

 

lol, that's funny.

 
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Posted: #698
btw van, keep up the good work.  love reading your takes on the games, and many of your future bets seem right on. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #699
i think this van guy is just lucky with his picks.












Actually, i'm kidding. Been reading the past four-five days, and his analysis is spot on. So good i had to register and post here for this: great job, Van!
 
 
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Posted: #700
not sure if anyone else has noticed, and it is common in all sports bets, but every game has been opening with better lines for favorites (van has been picking mostly favs, albeit well done picking) that eventually drop to much worse prices.

just a guess, and van you can tell me if i'm wrong, but the USA (around -110) and especially Serbia (-117) seem like two games you would like that might be best served locking in early
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