World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....

Thanks all......

Only 4 years until Brazil.

I feel very lucky to escape that S Korea game....

And now my Africa not to advance is really down to Ghana and Algeria - I could hit +1200 on that one....

Good day.

Another sweep! Good job Van!

I can't wait to see who you have tomorrow.

Once again, great run thus far, Van.

I'm very much looking forward to your write ups for tomorrow's games.

You mean you're not worried that Ivory Coast is going to beat N. Korea 10-0????

Hey Van- nice job so far. One quick question about Engalnd to win their group. Played them small -300 to win 100.  Whats the best way to minimize my losses here and get out of the bet?

tailed your plays and leans today, good job

Current Record 17-8 (futures not included until after all group games are finished)
Up 36.34 units, Down 12 units
TOTAL - Up +24.34 units

Previous games...

1.  SA / Mex over 2 -122 (1.5 units) -  PUSH
2.  Uruguay +.5 -109 (2 units) - WIN
3.  SK / Greec under 2 -103 (2 units) and 0-0 at +600 (.5 unit) - PUSH (lose .5 unit)
4.  Argentina -200 (2 units to win 1 unit) - WIN
5.  USA / Eng over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6.  SLV / ALG - no bet
7.  Serbia +116 (2 units) - LOSS
8.  Australia +1 +106 (1 unit) - LOSS
9.  Netherlands -180 (1 unit) - WIN
10.  Cameroon +112 (.5 unit) - LOSS
11.  Paraguay +.5 (2.5 units) - WIN
12.  Slovakia -.5 -200 (risked 1 unit) - LOSS
13.  Ivory Coast / PTGL - no bet
14.  Bzl / NK - no bet
15.  Chile (2 units) - WIN
16.  Switz +1.5 (.5 unit) - WIN
17.  Uruguay PK -140 (5 units) - WIN
18.  Arg / SK over +108 (1 unit) - WIN
19.  Greece +.5 (2 units) - WIN
20.  France +138 (3 units) - LOSS
21.  Serbia +.5 +140 (1 unit) - WIN
22.  Slovenia +.5 -116 (1unit) - WIN
23.  Eng / Alg over 2.5 +108 (1 unit) - LOSS
24.  Netherlands -200 (2 units) - WIN
25.  Australia +.5 -112 (3 units) - WIN
26.  Denmark PK -122 (3 units) - WIN
27.  Paraguay -.5 +112 (3 units) - WIN
28.  Italy/NZ - No Bet
29.  CIV +.5 +130 (.5 unit) - LOSS
30.  Portugal / NK - No bet
31.  Switz / Chile - No bet
32.  Spain / Honduras - No bet
33.  S Africa PK +135 (2 units) - WIN
34.  Urg / Mex No Draw +130 (2 units) - WIN
35.  Argtna / Grc - No bet
36.  S Korea PK -123 (2 units) - PUSH

Futures...  (Not included in total record until next round)

1.  Uruguay to advance +110 (2 units) - WIN 
2.  Uruguay to win group A +400 (.5 unit) - WIN 
3.  Argentina to win group B -220 (2 units) - WIN 
4.  Nigeria NOT to advance -118 (2 units) - WIN  
5.  England to win group C -320 (2 units)
6.  USA NOT to advance +112 (3 units)
7.  Serbia to win group D +330 (.5 unit)
8.  Germany NOT to advance +387 (.5 unit)
9.  Netherlands to win group E -145 (4 units)
10.  Denmark to advance +105 (1 unit)
11.  Japan zero points +360 (1 unit) - LOSS
12.  Paraguay win group F +340 (1.5 units)
13.  NZ no poings +100 (1 unit) -  LOSS
14.  Portugal to advane -110 (1.5 units)
15.  NK zero points -140 (2 units)
16.  Switz to advance +160 (1 unit)
17.  Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18.  Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)
19.  No african team to advance +1200 (1 unit)
20.  No african team qtr finals +165 (2 units)

Wednesday June 23

37. USA / Algeria - USA +100 (3 units) - NOTE - This is a bailout game for my USA not to advance bet at +118 for 3 units - If I didnt have that bet I would be on the USA for 1 unit - this is not a 3 unit wager for me.  Im doing this because I do think the USA has a better than 50/50 chance to win tomorrow - I like the momentum and belief they have after coming back against Slovenia - and there is nothing like the motivation the USA has after feeling like they were screwed.  The difference in Algeria this game will be that they have to win - dont forget that they havent scored yet in their 2 games - zero goals and not many chances - and they will have to abandon that strategy against the US because a draw means bye bye for them.  I am still worried about the US defense, I still think Onyewu is capable of being scored on by a high school girls team - but Im going to take my chances here that the US will come out to play and keep so much possession that the defense wont have a chance to be exposed.  US wins tomorrow, and on to Saturday (not fair to only have 2 days rest - I almost hope they come in 2nd in the group to get an extra day) or Sunday to play either Germany or Serbia.  Final score prediction USA 2 Algeria 0

38.  England / Slovenia - Under 2.5 (1 unit)- I really dont know what to do with this game.  Take "England" off of the jersey and I think Slovenia should be favored based on form, state of mind, and team play - but something keeps me from betting them on an obviously overinflated line.  This is value - I cant see why England is a -215 favorite in this spot.  But I still dont trust Slovenia - especially after what happened against the USA.  They might come out flat and get smoked - but they know that a draw gets them through - and I think they will return to a 5 man defensive wall and dare England to try and break it down.  Based on the last 2 games - England has no hope of doing it - but we will see.  Rooney played like he was drunk against Algeria, and there was no cohesion getting the ball from the midfield to the front line - and obviously no quality finishing in the final third - and that was against Algeria.  Im banking on a scoreless game for as long as possible, because any goal opens it up.  Final score prediction England 0 Slovenia 0

39.  Serbia / Australia - Serbia -107 (3 units) - Serbia enter this game coming off of their big win against Germany, and must feel pretty good about their chances to advance from Group D.  If they beat Australia, they are through no matter what happens in the other game.  I think Australia shot their wad against Ghana - a gritty hard fought performance that had the 10 men Aussies in exhastion at the end of the game - but more importantly losing 2 of their best players in Craig Moore in the center of their defense and Harry Kewell.  Tim Cahill returns, which should help - but this team must be spent after playing most of this world cup defending after getting a man sent off in both games.  The Socceroos will need to go for goals in this one as a high margin win is the only thing that helps them - and this will be their downfall.  Serbia will sit back and counterattack - and play a slow build up from the back.  I have been disappointed with Zigic in the first two games - he seemed to be at the center of most offensive blunders - but he is a very tall and hard to handle in the box and in the air.  Stankovic will control the midfield - and the plays all go through him - and he is one of the best.  After the first one, a desperate Aussie side gets demoralized and there will be Serbian chances.  Predicted final score Serbia 2 Australia 0

40.  Germany / Ghana - Germany -185 (to win 3 units) and Germany -1 -103 (to win 2 units) - This is right up there for me with Uruguay / RSA as my biggest bet of the tournament so far, but I cant help myself.  Ghana has scored 2 goals in 2 games, both on penalties.  The most striking (pun intended) part of their game has been the lack of quality finishing, wasting their opportunities in front of net.  They are young, athletic, and can shine at times with short passes full of flair - but they havent been able to cash that in to goals.  Germany come in off of their loss to Serbia - going from the team of the first game of the tournament - to also ran in the course of one week.  That sets up a great betting opportunity here as the Germans almost have to win to advance - and I think you will see a return to the German side that wasted the Aussies - not the one that had the misfortune of losing a man and a penalty kick and still almost got goals against Serbia.  This has bloodbath written all over it for me, and I dont mind giving the goal because if Ghana lose they will need a miracle to advance.  Klose is out on suspension - but I see no loss in bringing in Mario Gomez as his replacement - and that wont slow down the accurate passing game of the Germans that should open the Ghanaians up time and time again.  Germany scores before half, and keeps on rolling.  Final score prediction Germany 3 Ghana 0

GL ALL!!