Anyone have any more info/strategy around consensus?
3rd time in a row a good streak of mine (5+) gets knocked due to consensus
the other 2 prior had over 65% so It made sense but today I wanted to do a total and the consensus was 62%. Then before puck drop Colorado wasn’t available. Turns out my 2nd backup was the only pick that resulted in a loss.
I make a lot of my picks right before game time so it probably impacts me a lot more then others.
Just seeing if anyone that knows some strategy around this or if your streak gets high is there less games for you to choose from. I find beating consensus is basically another game in itself if you want to go all the way.
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Anyone have any more info/strategy around consensus?
3rd time in a row a good streak of mine (5+) gets knocked due to consensus
the other 2 prior had over 65% so It made sense but today I wanted to do a total and the consensus was 62%. Then before puck drop Colorado wasn’t available. Turns out my 2nd backup was the only pick that resulted in a loss.
I make a lot of my picks right before game time so it probably impacts me a lot more then others.
Just seeing if anyone that knows some strategy around this or if your streak gets high is there less games for you to choose from. I find beating consensus is basically another game in itself if you want to go all the way.
Not sure I understand what your saying or asking, but I would not rely on consensus to make an educated guess on who will cover. I would use all the research then if it also backs it go with it.
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@F-Orrell
Not sure I understand what your saying or asking, but I would not rely on consensus to make an educated guess on who will cover. I would use all the research then if it also backs it go with it.
Sometimes when you go to the matchup page you can make a pick on a game that's not available on the main page. It's not all the time but it does work sometimes.
1
@SanJoseCupWin
Sometimes when you go to the matchup page you can make a pick on a game that's not available on the main page. It's not all the time but it does work sometimes.
I use to think do the opposite of most people or the consensus. It worked great in the NFL during my years in college 83-87. Then in 88 lost my ass. Now I'm a firm believer in x drives y or how the independent variable affects the dependent variable. Look at every sport from that angle and you will capture the data you think are the key drivers in a particular sport. One key driver - ensure you are looking at the opening lines in all the sports you evaluate. BOL to you.
1
@F-Orrell
I use to think do the opposite of most people or the consensus. It worked great in the NFL during my years in college 83-87. Then in 88 lost my ass. Now I'm a firm believer in x drives y or how the independent variable affects the dependent variable. Look at every sport from that angle and you will capture the data you think are the key drivers in a particular sport. One key driver - ensure you are looking at the opening lines in all the sports you evaluate. BOL to you.
Some of the OG's of the $25 Dime Club know that I'm pretty damn good at predicting Football from our friends North of the Border. It's become an tradition for me before the NFL starts to make money on the CFL. I can't explain it but I've been watching the CFL since I was kid in San Diego when they showed CFL games on TV every year. Anyways this year is no different. I'm already 2-0 on my CFL picks and today I'm going with Winnipeg-Calgary Under 46.5. Follow me on your Survivor picks and your favorite Sports Books as we cash in on the CFL.
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Some of the OG's of the $25 Dime Club know that I'm pretty damn good at predicting Football from our friends North of the Border. It's become an tradition for me before the NFL starts to make money on the CFL. I can't explain it but I've been watching the CFL since I was kid in San Diego when they showed CFL games on TV every year. Anyways this year is no different. I'm already 2-0 on my CFL picks and today I'm going with Winnipeg-Calgary Under 46.5. Follow me on your Survivor picks and your favorite Sports Books as we cash in on the CFL.
Sure. Basically it's cause and affect. If you can look at sports from that angle it will help you hone in on the key drivers of that sport. For example, In Basketball the goal is to win the game (dependent variable) - what do the teams that win do that other teams don't do (that becomes your Independent Variable).
My son played on a team when he was 14 (youth league) - they hadn't won a game the whole season. The head coach didn't understand the game or how to relate to the players. He wasn't going to be there for the playoff game - we had to play the best team. He asked me to coach - i said okay. Here we are down to 6 players. I said kids - what wins basketball games - they said points, I said okay but how do you get points - they said put the ball in the basket - i said i got it i got it. I said how do we give ourselves opportunities to get points - move without the ball, set picks, and pass to the open man (Assists - key driver). I asked what is the problem thus far - they said everytime Johnnie dribbles the ball up the court he loses it - I said we gotta take care of the ball and you need to help Johnnie out when he's in trouble so we can eliminate Turnovers (turnovers another key driver). Finally, we have to play great defense (another key driver). We had the lead until 10 seconds left and this kid hit a 3 pointer and they won by 2 pts.
These are some of the key drivers in basketball - that I look at which would be classified as the Independent Variable. Basically teams with high assists low turnovers and great defense can win a lot of games. It's not the only thing i look at but what i've determined to be part of the key drivers i'm going to look at along with some other things.
Hope that helps.
1
@smoothd20
Sure. Basically it's cause and affect. If you can look at sports from that angle it will help you hone in on the key drivers of that sport. For example, In Basketball the goal is to win the game (dependent variable) - what do the teams that win do that other teams don't do (that becomes your Independent Variable).
My son played on a team when he was 14 (youth league) - they hadn't won a game the whole season. The head coach didn't understand the game or how to relate to the players. He wasn't going to be there for the playoff game - we had to play the best team. He asked me to coach - i said okay. Here we are down to 6 players. I said kids - what wins basketball games - they said points, I said okay but how do you get points - they said put the ball in the basket - i said i got it i got it. I said how do we give ourselves opportunities to get points - move without the ball, set picks, and pass to the open man (Assists - key driver). I asked what is the problem thus far - they said everytime Johnnie dribbles the ball up the court he loses it - I said we gotta take care of the ball and you need to help Johnnie out when he's in trouble so we can eliminate Turnovers (turnovers another key driver). Finally, we have to play great defense (another key driver). We had the lead until 10 seconds left and this kid hit a 3 pointer and they won by 2 pts.
These are some of the key drivers in basketball - that I look at which would be classified as the Independent Variable. Basically teams with high assists low turnovers and great defense can win a lot of games. It's not the only thing i look at but what i've determined to be part of the key drivers i'm going to look at along with some other things.
Interesting points. So for example in Baseball the reason my Yankees are doing much better is great defense, less reliability on HR's except for Judge of course and aggressive base running IE more Steals. Those would be considered Dependent variables. Now how do you relate these variables to sports betting. Let's take Baseball for example since it's baseball season. How would you Cap the Minnesota-San Diego game this afternoon using this strategy? Just as a hypothetical, to give us a real world application of your theory.
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@TheBuddah
Interesting points. So for example in Baseball the reason my Yankees are doing much better is great defense, less reliability on HR's except for Judge of course and aggressive base running IE more Steals. Those would be considered Dependent variables. Now how do you relate these variables to sports betting. Let's take Baseball for example since it's baseball season. How would you Cap the Minnesota-San Diego game this afternoon using this strategy? Just as a hypothetical, to give us a real world application of your theory.
I'll play along. The beauty of sportsbetting - we all have our opinions of what works and what doesn't so everything i'm stating is my humble opinion:
1. To me the key driver in baseball is the starting pitcher - as they set the tone for the game. Art Manteris a sportsbook manager in a book he wrote I beleive Superbookie - stated the opening line of a baseball game is based on who the starting pitcher is. He stated 95% of the opening line is based on that. One year they dropped it to 90% and he said they got killed. Thus I look at starting pitchers. I don't worry about defense, home or away, left vs right, who is hitting home runs etc. All of that may or may not be in the opening line.
2. Let's look at this game:
8.5 Minn Bundy 113
160 Sd Manaea 28
The game opened up at 160 for SD and 8.5 for Minn Sportsmemo.com The opening line of the game is very important - no one in here knows exactly what makes up the oddsmakers lines including myself - we speculate and have our reasons but no one knows the exact weights they give to the starting pitcher hitters etc. I beleive a majority of that line comes from who is starting (based on what Manteris said but don't know for sure).
I have a formula i use to give each starting pitcher a rating - based on my methodology i give Bundy 113 and Manaea 28. I keep track of these ratings and lines in a spreadsheet. In my spreadsheet i look to find where the opening line is 160 and the ratings are similar or identical. I do what history tells me. I track over and unders as well. My numbers are telling me to take the under thus I'm taking the under in this game. I basically follow the definition of statistics - A science which involves collecting, organizing, summarizing, analyzing and interpreting data in order to facilitate the decision-making process.
Does it work everytime of course not or i would have already won the contest. It's constant process improvement. However, it's better than gut feel. Hope it helps.
3
@smoothd20
I'll play along. The beauty of sportsbetting - we all have our opinions of what works and what doesn't so everything i'm stating is my humble opinion:
1. To me the key driver in baseball is the starting pitcher - as they set the tone for the game. Art Manteris a sportsbook manager in a book he wrote I beleive Superbookie - stated the opening line of a baseball game is based on who the starting pitcher is. He stated 95% of the opening line is based on that. One year they dropped it to 90% and he said they got killed. Thus I look at starting pitchers. I don't worry about defense, home or away, left vs right, who is hitting home runs etc. All of that may or may not be in the opening line.
2. Let's look at this game:
8.5 Minn Bundy 113
160 Sd Manaea 28
The game opened up at 160 for SD and 8.5 for Minn Sportsmemo.com The opening line of the game is very important - no one in here knows exactly what makes up the oddsmakers lines including myself - we speculate and have our reasons but no one knows the exact weights they give to the starting pitcher hitters etc. I beleive a majority of that line comes from who is starting (based on what Manteris said but don't know for sure).
I have a formula i use to give each starting pitcher a rating - based on my methodology i give Bundy 113 and Manaea 28. I keep track of these ratings and lines in a spreadsheet. In my spreadsheet i look to find where the opening line is 160 and the ratings are similar or identical. I do what history tells me. I track over and unders as well. My numbers are telling me to take the under thus I'm taking the under in this game. I basically follow the definition of statistics - A science which involves collecting, organizing, summarizing, analyzing and interpreting data in order to facilitate the decision-making process.
Does it work everytime of course not or i would have already won the contest. It's constant process improvement. However, it's better than gut feel. Hope it helps.
MLB isn’t my go-to sport but cap it to get me some seasonal entertainment and I have to start somewhere and it’s with the opening lines and they must be under -150 then I look at the probable starting pitchers because the opening lines are set on exactly who the books figure is to be the confirmed pitchers. If there’s a big rise or fall in the line then I’ll go see why.
After eliminating all the over -150 games I’ll look at pitchers’ records under -150 opening line and for the category they facing today and then go from there.
I’m the same as far as yourself “I don't worry about defense, home or away, left vs right, who is hitting home runs etc. All of that may or may not be in the opening line.” I have a starting point based on the opening lines and then go from there.
I used to look at everything possible and found out that there were too many ingredients in the recipe. I spend way too much time going through it all and not worth the extra time as I was second guessing myself and it was costly. Was getting caught between the switches, horrible. EXAMPLE: Seeing a team had great numbers against lefties but opposition pitcher had a great team record. Hmmm which way to go? and went wrong way more often than I won then add the mental strain after of “why didn’t I go with lefties etc. Next time I go with lefties and better team record won. Then add some other stats to that and the recipe bowl was over flowing and not worth the time and effort and at this stage of my life I’m fine with putting in as little effort as possible and use the extra time by getting out and trying to get healthy again.
My record for MLB this regular season is 75-89-8 (-$690.35) not including my two ALL-STAR wins of $362.00. Not being my go-to sport I have a regular season loss limit of -$1000 so if I hit -$1000 I’ll call it a season and with $362.00 ALL-STAR win I’ll only be down $700-$800 which isn’t what I want but is totally OK.
My best go-to has been the NBA. It could change but it’s been really good for me in the past few years and I can’t name who is who on teams, don’t watch any games, don’t even like the game, (used to and reason why I cap the game) but I’ll have my numbers to play and hit CONFIRM once spread lines are posted. I don’t second guess anything, if my numbers fit, I hit CONFIRM. Of course, I don’t win every game and lines have gone against me but they have also worked out for me, they balance out plus or minus a bit but nothing to stop me from swaying from my numbers.
Doesn’t mean your way, my way, or anybody’s way is the right or wrong way. It’s everyone’s personal way of how, what they do to come to their plays.
Best to you
Cap, confirm, then try to get out enjoy life, time waits for no one.
1
@TheBuddah
MLB isn’t my go-to sport but cap it to get me some seasonal entertainment and I have to start somewhere and it’s with the opening lines and they must be under -150 then I look at the probable starting pitchers because the opening lines are set on exactly who the books figure is to be the confirmed pitchers. If there’s a big rise or fall in the line then I’ll go see why.
After eliminating all the over -150 games I’ll look at pitchers’ records under -150 opening line and for the category they facing today and then go from there.
I’m the same as far as yourself “I don't worry about defense, home or away, left vs right, who is hitting home runs etc. All of that may or may not be in the opening line.” I have a starting point based on the opening lines and then go from there.
I used to look at everything possible and found out that there were too many ingredients in the recipe. I spend way too much time going through it all and not worth the extra time as I was second guessing myself and it was costly. Was getting caught between the switches, horrible. EXAMPLE: Seeing a team had great numbers against lefties but opposition pitcher had a great team record. Hmmm which way to go? and went wrong way more often than I won then add the mental strain after of “why didn’t I go with lefties etc. Next time I go with lefties and better team record won. Then add some other stats to that and the recipe bowl was over flowing and not worth the time and effort and at this stage of my life I’m fine with putting in as little effort as possible and use the extra time by getting out and trying to get healthy again.
My record for MLB this regular season is 75-89-8 (-$690.35) not including my two ALL-STAR wins of $362.00. Not being my go-to sport I have a regular season loss limit of -$1000 so if I hit -$1000 I’ll call it a season and with $362.00 ALL-STAR win I’ll only be down $700-$800 which isn’t what I want but is totally OK.
My best go-to has been the NBA. It could change but it’s been really good for me in the past few years and I can’t name who is who on teams, don’t watch any games, don’t even like the game, (used to and reason why I cap the game) but I’ll have my numbers to play and hit CONFIRM once spread lines are posted. I don’t second guess anything, if my numbers fit, I hit CONFIRM. Of course, I don’t win every game and lines have gone against me but they have also worked out for me, they balance out plus or minus a bit but nothing to stop me from swaying from my numbers.
Doesn’t mean your way, my way, or anybody’s way is the right or wrong way. It’s everyone’s personal way of how, what they do to come to their plays.
I can definitely relate to paralysis by analysis. I used to collect left vs right, day of week, era, etc etc etc. Part of what your doing is trying to interpret the data and it's not easy so i find what i'm doing now addresses that issue. At the end of the day it's what works for you that is the key thing. It's good to have discipline which is hard for me sometimes but glad you have it and best of luck to ya. Thanks for your well wishes.
2
@ShortAsssSam
I can definitely relate to paralysis by analysis. I used to collect left vs right, day of week, era, etc etc etc. Part of what your doing is trying to interpret the data and it's not easy so i find what i'm doing now addresses that issue. At the end of the day it's what works for you that is the key thing. It's good to have discipline which is hard for me sometimes but glad you have it and best of luck to ya. Thanks for your well wishes.
I sports bet mostly college football, I would like to hear more about that line movement and how you feel it will affect the outcome of the game. What do you see in that orioles game tonight ? I believe the orioles should win thr game. Please share your analysis. Also I would like to chat offline to go over different things for the NFL season and real sportsbetting. You seem to pay attention amd I would appreciate picking your brain.
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@ShortAsssSam
I sports bet mostly college football, I would like to hear more about that line movement and how you feel it will affect the outcome of the game. What do you see in that orioles game tonight ? I believe the orioles should win thr game. Please share your analysis. Also I would like to chat offline to go over different things for the NFL season and real sportsbetting. You seem to pay attention amd I would appreciate picking your brain.
whoohoo just started amd im on W1 lol im leaning towards houston astros with verlander on the mound! just dont see him losing another one and lock of the day should be new york mets! any thoughts?!?!?
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whoohoo just started amd im on W1 lol im leaning towards houston astros with verlander on the mound! just dont see him losing another one and lock of the day should be new york mets! any thoughts?!?!?
Look for Reverse Line Movements (RLM) and games no one is talking about, like the Bears last night! Not much on the board tonight but like Pistons +6 because everyone is on Wizards. Warriors looked great last game and all the money and talk is on them so lean Suns ML Have to study for sure but knowing each game situation everyday matters a lot
charlie1226
1
@smoothd20
Look for Reverse Line Movements (RLM) and games no one is talking about, like the Bears last night! Not much on the board tonight but like Pistons +6 because everyone is on Wizards. Warriors looked great last game and all the money and talk is on them so lean Suns ML Have to study for sure but knowing each game situation everyday matters a lot
You guys ever look at the print sheets on Covers daily? Overall Points against and Overall points for each team is a good guideline that works well for me! Pretty sure that's how the lines are determined for each game. If over 80% of team leaders are on a game, is a good system also! GL to all
charlie1226
2
@MIZUNO22
You guys ever look at the print sheets on Covers daily? Overall Points against and Overall points for each team is a good guideline that works well for me! Pretty sure that's how the lines are determined for each game. If over 80% of team leaders are on a game, is a good system also! GL to all
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thanks yankees
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