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2010 JM NFL System

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Posted: #151
Well that's probably true, but keep in mind Dallas doesn't have the same QB that they've had for the first 3 losses of the ATS/SU streak.  I'm rather sure a new QB can easily lose 3 ATS/SU in a row, especially Jon Kitna

That's what scares me
 
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Posted: #152
Nice win on the Bears guys!
 
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Posted: #153
Da Bears! Sum1 had to say it.
 
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Posted: #154
If Dallas isn't at least a 21 point underdog next week, I'm just going to take my loss on the Dallas series and move on.

Dal +9
 
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Posted: #155
Dal  has given up. Grade "A" ass whoopin.
 
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Posted: #156
Dallas was BRUTAL again! That hurt trying to recover the ML bet from last week...OUCH!

For any NCAA followers. This past week went 6-6 which to me sucks. There are 11 more plays this coming week:

Fri B on Buffalo   (good chance to cash here against a bad team)
C on Memphis
B   Vanderbilt
B   UNLV
A   Wake Forest

Modified
B   Texas
B   Purdue  (+13 against no Def Mich)
A   East Carolina
A   West Virginia
A   Missouri
A   Florida St.

I personally expected A bets to be doing better than they are, but I don't know what the A, B, C breakdown was to begin with.


In the pros...hopefully grab the ca$h with Cincinnati tonight. 
And I need 39 stinkin yds from Ochocinco to win my Fantasy game (no fumbles of course!)
 
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Posted: #157
Cincy
 
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Posted: #158

reg system record: 4-0 (2 series pending)



reg system week 10 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS):

B - Denver
C - Dallas



mod system week 10 plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS, .500+ record):

A - Seattle

A - Houston

mod system record: 3-0

 

reg system week 11 potential plays (lost 2 SU & 2 ATS)

Carolina



mod system week 11 potential plays (.500 or better record, lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

Kansas City

New England

 

Let me know if I missed any..

 
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Posted: #159
I know that line was flying around yesterday, but how do you count Cincy a Win?

The highest I saw it was 6, then it came back down. I got it at 5.5 and bought a 1/2 point back up to 6 (which saved me) for the push. I just don't see any rule saying you buy past a 6. Help me out here...
 
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Posted: #160
The line I got in for the Cincy game was +4.5. That's a loss for me.

When back testing these scenarios, is a range tested or just the best possible line for the scenario?

...nothing in the rules state buying points. Are we modifying strategy to create wins?

I like these systems - this one and the road NHL system - but I'm becoming suspect of the back testing of lines and which lines have actually been tested, the ones that fit, or a range?

Would you want to back test the worst line instead of the best line to be realistic/safe?


 
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Posted: #161
I got Cincy at +7 yesterday at roughly 8:00 AM eastern time. I wasn't aware it was that low!  +4.5 ?!?!  Holy shit..
 
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Posted: #162
Quote Originally Posted by spatt02:

The line I got in for the Cincy game was +4.5. That's a loss for me.

When back testing these scenarios, is a range tested or just the best possible line for the scenario?

...nothing in the rules state buying points. Are we modifying strategy to create wins?

I like these systems - this one and the road NHL system - but I'm becoming suspect of the back testing of lines and which lines have actually been tested, the ones that fit, or a range?

Would you want to back test the worst line instead of the best line to be realistic/safe?



I always thought it was the "best line" that was released.  In this case, I'm assuming that was +6.5

I just looked back and I actually got it at +6.5, and bought a half point to make it 7.  So the best line so far must have been +6.5
 
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Posted: #163
 
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Posted: #164
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:


I always thought it was the "best line" that was released.  In this case, I'm assuming that was +6.5

I just looked back and I actually got it at +6.5, and bought a half point to make it 7.  So the best line so far must have been +6.5


...soooo... even though you won that bet and posted a win here, it's actually a loss for the system -  you bought the half point which is not part of the system. 

I'm just trying to follow the system and trying to read through the adjustments. Not trying to bust balls.

I'll post a follow up to Cincy in the coming weeks. Let's hope to close it out against Indy or Buffalo. Right now Cincinati is 0-5 ATS/SU over their last 5 games on vegasinsider.
 
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Posted: #165
Quote Originally Posted by spatt02:



...soooo... even though you won that bet and posted a win here, it's actually a loss for the system -  you bought the half point which is not part of the system. 

I'm just trying to follow the system and trying to read through the adjustments. Not trying to bust balls.

I'll post a follow up to Cincy in the coming weeks. Let's hope to close it out against Indy or Buffalo. Right now Cincinati is 0-5 ATS/SU over their last 5 games on vegasinsider.

Yep you should definitely go by what vegasinsider says, not what happened with my bet.  I suppose I just got lucky, but they will remain as a (C) bet for week 10

Sorry for the confusion.  I should have check vegasinsider first
 
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Posted: #166

reg system record: 3-0 (3 series pending)



reg system week 10 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS):

B - Denver
C - Dallas

C - Cincy



mod system week 10 plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS, .500+ record):

A - Seattle

A - Houston

mod system record: 3-0

 

reg system week 11 potential plays (lost 2 SU & 2 ATS)

Carolina



mod system week 11 potential plays (.500 or better record, lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

Kansas City

New England
 
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Posted: #167
Good win with Chicago on the modified system and Cincy at +5 should have been bought to +7 or +7.5 as the rules dictate. Cincy was a win as far as the system goes.

system record: 3-0 (2 series pending)

system week 10 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS):

B - Denver
C - Dallas

system week 11 potential plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS):

Carolina

mod system record: 3-0

mod system week 10 plays (.500 or better record, lost 2 SU and 2 ATS):

A - Seattle
A - Houston

mod system week 11 potential plays (.500 or better record, lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

Tennessee
New England
Kansas City

LWL .500 system record: 4-1 (no chasing)

Washington
 
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Posted: #168
The rules dictate to buy points to push the spread over/under a key number (3, 7, 10, 14, 17, 21)."

I was looking at a +5.5 and a +6 line all week at my book. I bought the line up to +7. The rules say to buy points past a key number, 7 being the key number.

This isn't my system, so I am not trying to defend my own work here, I just want to make sure that the people who are following this dont get shafted.

 
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Posted: #169
The rules are on page 1 of this thread. Buying points is DEFINITELY part of the system when it comes to key numbers.
 
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Posted: #170

Does indeed say buy up to a full point

And I missed Tennessee, nice job

 
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Posted: #171
Quote Originally Posted by on3:

The rules are on page 1 of this thread. Buying points is DEFINITELY part of the system when it comes to key numbers.


Absolutely. My mistake.  Thanks for setting me straight gentlemen. I took a look again at the system - as I have it printed out in front of me - I absolutely shat the bed on this one. We are buying points.

With that said, is there some clarification in order?  To clarify, the rules say 'Buy a half point to a full point to push the spread over/under a key number' - not 'buy points to push the spread over/under a key number'  If you take that literally, and you got in at 5(vegasinsider), you would still not be buying points because you'd be buying up to 1 full point to move the line to 6 - not a key number, and you'd still have a loser.

I understand you guys got in at 6, but many did not I'd imagine, including myself, and I am still sitting on the C bet for Cincinnati. 

...we are splitting hairs here discussing spreads, I guess my question to you is, are you buying points up to those key numbers regardless if it is more than 1 point away.  Response? Thoughts?


 
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Posted: #172
Spatt, I took Cincy early last week at +4.5 and saw it get steamed up to +7.  I put down a 2nd bet on Cincy and bought it up to +7.5.  Overall, I ended up losing the juice, but I consider it a "system win".  I am moving on from this play and won't be playing the Cincy as a C play. 

Let's keep a sharp eye on the lines for these upcoming system plays this week.  Below is what I'm seeing now:

Bengals +7 -120 - Public will back the Colts, should steam up.
Cowboys +14 -110 - Public will back the Giants, should steam up.
Broncos pk  even money - Won't be bet by the public, any moves in the line should be considered sharp
Seahawks +3 +110 - See above
Texans +1 even money - See above

Just my 2 cents.

 
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Posted: #173
Spatt - you are right on. This first page states to buy either a 1/2 point or up to a full point to push the spread over/under a key number. Based on that you would not have bought points even if the line was 6. Because buying a full point would only get your line to 7 and not past 7. So that game is a loss in the system unless you found it somewhere at +6.5. My interpretation...
 
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Posted: #174
In NCAA:

East Carolina would qualify as a Modified A Bet tonight.
 
 
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Posted: #175
On ECU ML tonight.  This is a good bounce back spot for them
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