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2011 Opening Game Favorite

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Prospect
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Posted: #76

Rizz looks like angels aren't a play since Chatwood replaced Haren!!!! Good call on seattle not worth the risk considered they lost the last seven.

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #77
mother F&(king Red Sox! Anyone else have a bad feeling about this TB series? Maybe I'm over reacting but the Red Sox stress me out.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #78

confirm?

g1 kc@MINN -143 ****o/u 8

g1 balt@NYY -175 o/u 9.5

g2 tam@BOS -172

g1 fla@ATL  -172 o/u 8

**** 2 game series (Not sure if therizz is playing this. Therizz played 2 game series last year but i believe it was much later in the season when interleague was going on????)

 

 
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Posted: #79
I would hold off on MINN unless therizz says otherwise since post 1 says we're playing 3 game chases only. I can't remember if it was interleague 2 game chases that did well last year.
 
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Posted: #80
Should be

Boston gm2
LAA gm 2
NYY game 1
Atlanta gm1
 
Prospect
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Posted: #81

Quote Originally Posted by disco20:

Should be

Boston gm2
LAA gm 2
NYY game 1
Atlanta gm1

Are we playing LAA? There was a pitching change so the line dropped way down. So if Chatwood was declared the pitcher from the start, it would not have have made the -145 opening line and we would have skipped the series.  I don't remember if this occurred last year?

 
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Posted: #82
Good point Rogue... I'm not sure then on the system, but I played it y'day, so I'm in. If you didn't then sit this one out, i guess.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #83

Quote Originally Posted by disco20:

Good point Rogue... I'm not sure then on the system, but I played it y'day, so I'm in. If you didn't then sit this one out, i guess.

I played them too yesterday because i liked the game, not because it was system play. I'm play them again as a personal play. Good Luck to us both!

 
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Posted: #84

Confirm?

gm3 Tam@BOSTON -150

Atlanta won last nite (add another win to system record), NYY rain ppd so not a play today since no longer 3 game series, If you played LAA as gm2 bet you won, If you played Minn despite it being a 2 game series you won. BTW Boston blows

 
Prospect
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by roguewager:

Confirm?

gm3 Tam@BOSTON -150

Atlanta won last nite (add another win to system record), NYY rain ppd so not a play today since no longer 3 game series, If you played LAA as gm2 bet you won, If you played Minn despite it being a 2 game series you won. BTW Boston blows

Yes on both counts...

  • Boston is a Play
  • Boston Blows!
  • And thanks for pointing out the Yanks are a 2 game series.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #86
Boston Game Postponed. Tomorrow maybe?
 
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Posted: #87

Crap guys, sorry.  My computer died this week.  Just got a new one this evening.  Either way, BOS definitely sucks.  I did not play LAA after the pitching change but did play the two games series on MIN and NYY tonight as they still met criteria for game 2.  I will update everything as I have been able to see the board on my phone but can't post for whatever reason.  Looks like a play on OAK tomorrow. Hopefully the Yankees take care of business tonight.

 
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Posted: #88

Plays for 4/11:

System record 16-1-0                        +0.7U with labby

o/uFilter plays 5-1 (5-0 home teams)                                      

All Series 15-1   (played series only, not incl road o/u filter)

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

*Series#17 (G1) 7:10             tb @ BOS -146     9   

##Series#18 (G1) 10:10           tor  @ SEA -163     6.5  

-to win 1.5U, see below re:  SEA

 

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 10

Game 2 wins = 5

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

+0.7 U aggressive labby updated 4/9 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: x-x-x-26         -22, +0

G2's: x-5-32-x        

G3's: 5-5-15-15   

 
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Posted: #89

Plays for 4/12:

System record 17-1-0                        +2.9U with labby

o/uFilter plays 5-1 (5-0 home teams)                                      

All Series 18-2   (played series only, not incl road o/u filter)

2 game series: 1-1   (G1=1, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

*Series#17 (G2) 7:10             tb @ BOS RL+120        

Series#19 (G1) 7:10           fla  @ ATL -163       8    

Series#20 (G1)                   kc @ MIN -149        8    

-to win 2.6U on G1's, 3.6U for BOS

 

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 11

Game 2 wins = 5

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

+2.9 U aggressive labby updated 4/12 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: x-x-x-x         +52

G2's: x-5-21-x         -30      (took extra 26 here add half Bos loss)

G3's: 5-5-15-30   

 
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Posted: #90

Plays for 4/13:

System record 17-1-0                        +2.9U with labby

o/uFilter plays 5-1 (5-0 home teams)                                      

All Series 18-2   (played series only, not incl road o/u filter)

2 game series: 1-1   (G1=1, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

**Series#21 (G1) 7:10             bal @ NYY -173 RL+110  9.5      

-to win 1.6U

 

            

*2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 11

Game 2 wins = 5

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

+2.9 U aggressive labby updated 4/12 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: 5-5-11-11         shuffled lines since line 1 was cleared

G2's: 5-5-11-11        

G3's: 5-5-11-11   

 
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Posted: #91
Wasn't sure what to do with BOS so included it as a 2G series loss.  If you have the bankroll to be more aggressive with your lines feel free to do so.  I have been splitting things out a little bit more than I did last year since we started a little bit rough.  I think there are value in these two game series.  There were a bunch at the beginning of May last year that we did pretty well with.  I will play those that meet criteria at least until those are done this season.  Congrats to those that played the LAA series.  In hindsight, it would have met the opening odds criteria I backtested against....
 
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Posted: #92

Plays for 4/13:

System record 17-1-0                        +2.9U with labby

o/uFilter plays 5-1 (5-0 home teams)                                      

All Series 19-2   (played series only, not incl road o/u filter)

2 game series: 2-1   (G1=2, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

**Series#21 (G1) 7:10             bal @ NYY -173 RL+110  9.5      

-to win 1.6U

 

            

*2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 11

Game 2 wins = 5

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

+4.5 U aggressive labby updated 4/13 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: x-5-11-x         +16

G2's: 5-5-11-11        

G3's: 5-5-11-11   

 
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Posted: #93

Plays for 4/14:

System record 17-1-0                        +4.5U with labby

o/uFilter plays 5-1 (5-0 home teams)                                      

All Series 19-2   (played series only, not incl road o/u filter)

2 game series: 2-1   (G1=2, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

Series#22 (G1) 10:10             det @ OAK -145  7.5    

-to win 1.6U

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 11

Game 2 wins = 5

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

+4.5 U aggressive labby updated 4/13 PM

Labby Lines

G1's: x-5-11-x        

G2's: 5-5-11-11        

G3's: 5-5-11-11   

 
Prospect
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Posted: #94
Great work guys. System really works. I was thinking about how to make the system more profitable, and wondering if we could cash in on the same series twice. I believe every team that won game 1, of the series lost once in that series, so why not try and cash in on the dog in the same series after the favorite wins in the first game. For example in the NYY series vs baltimore NY won the first game but is loosing the second game today. Another example being the Minnesota vs KC series, Minny won game one, but KC won the second game. Does anybody else notice these tendencies? Just a thought! Would love to get some feedback.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #95

Im late to the thread are you playing oak or detroit? or the over or the under thanks for your help

 

 
Prospect
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Posts: 423
Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by Jattdoit:

Great work guys. System really works. I was thinking about how to make the system more profitable, and wondering if we could cash in on the same series twice. I believe every team that won game 1, of the series lost once in that series, so why not try and cash in on the dog in the same series after the favorite wins in the first game. For example in the NYY series vs baltimore NY won the first game but is loosing the second game today. Another example being the Minnesota vs KC series, Minny won game one, but KC won the second game. Does anybody else notice these tendencies? Just a thought! Would love to get some feedback.


That seems like a great idea...reverse it on a 2 game chase. Rizz seems to have limited time these days...but happens to be the KING of backtesting. Rizz....thoughts?
 
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Posted: #97

Quote Originally Posted by stickbit:



That seems like a great idea...reverse it on a 2 game chase. Rizz seems to have limited time these days...but happens to be the KING of backtesting. Rizz....thoughts?

I can't remember specifics,but when I backtested for 2009 the record was 246-7.  There were 50 or more sweeps by the favored team in game 1.  This year it seems to be a trend that the team doesn't make the sweep, but did not hold true in backtesting when I originally looked at this system.  The new system I posted this year has all low odds plays and has started pretty well also if that is more your comfort in making plays....

 
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Posts: 2304
Posted: #98

Plays for 4/14:

System record 17-1-0                        +2.1U with labby

o/uFilter plays 5-1 (5-0 home teams)                                      

All Series 19-2   (played series only, not incl road o/u filter)

2 game series: 2-1   (G1=2, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

Series#22 (G1) 10:10             det @ OAK -145  7.5    

-to win 1.6U

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 11

Game 2 wins = 5

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

+2.1 U aggressive labby updated 4/15 AM

Labby Lines

G1's: x-5-11-12           -24

G2's: 5-5-11-23        

G3's: 5-5-11-11   

 
Veteran
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Posts: 2304
Posted: #99

Plays for 4/15:

System record 17-1-0                        +2.1U with labby

o/uFilter plays 5-1 (5-0 home teams)                                      

All Series 19-2   (played series only, not incl road o/u filter)

2 game series: 2-1   (G1=2, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff             

Series#22 (G2) 10:10             det @ OAK -130  7.5    

-to win 2.8U

*Series#23 (G1) 7:05              tex @ NYY -145         10

*Series#24 (G1) 7:10               tor @ BOS -177         9.5

Series#25 (G1) 7:05               fla @ PHI -200, RL ?  8.5

Series#26 (G1) 7:10               nym @ ATL -177        8

Series#27 (G1) 8:40               chc @ COL -150         8.5

-to win 1.7U, I am most likely not playing BOS which means they will probably win

            

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

 

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 11

Game 2 wins = 5

Game 3 wins =1

*Losses = 1

+2.1 U aggressive labby updated 4/15 AM

Labby Lines

G1's: x-5-11-12          

G2's: 5-5-11-23        

G3's: 5-5-11-11   

 
 
Veteran
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Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 2304
Posted: #100
will be out of town until sunday and wont be able to post.  GL
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