Through 105 system games this season, I’ve found a 70% NBA
Against the Spread winner. 73 Wins and 32 Losses. I actually found this
accidentally and just backtested the results on this season’s games so far. It’s
remarkably simple once you understand it but at first it might not make sense.
What we’re looking for are FAVORITES that were UNDERDOGS in their last game.
Those teams pass the first test of the system. Once we have those teams we’re
looking for the ones that the point spread from the last game to this game has
shifted by MORE THAN 10 POINTS, which is confusing as hell to explain without
an example:
Jan. 25 Spurs +1.5 at Mavericks (W)
Jan. 26 Spurs -9.5 vs. Suns (L)
In those back to back games the Spurs went from a DOG to a
FAV and the spread moved by 11 points. If that’s still difficult to comprehend just
remove the plus and minus and add the spreads together.
Now, when the Spurs line came out at -9.5 (or -9 for that
matter) we had a system trigger. The system is to take the opposite ATS result
of the previous game. Since the Spurs covered against the Mavericks, our bet
would have been on the Suns +9.5. Like I said it’s fairly confusing at first
glance but after a while you’re just looking for a FAV following a DOG and then
it’s pretty easy. I’ll explain why this makes logical sense in the next post.
BOL.
CAP
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