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Back Testing Scenarios Wanted

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by irage:

Based on a lead after the 5th. If only one could bet on games after the 5th.

2014 = 86.6%
2013 = 88.3%
2012 = 90.5%
2011 = 89.0%
2010 = 89.8%


Nice, can you backtest it a few years before 2010 please? Thanks a bunch.
 
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Posted: #27
How about...


What is the % of wins when an NHL team has a lead after the 1st period?
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Good info, thanks for sharing your time, apreciate the effort


Now this is what I am talking about. I'm working on it and will post the results when I have it.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Baath887:

How about...


What is the % of wins when an NHL team has a lead after the 1st period?


I can only do MLB!
 
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Posted: #30
where's my one run games by totals
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by irage:



2014 = 45.6%

The Dodgers today was the last one to be ahead by 1 after 5 and win the game.


Can you backtest this going a few years back?
 
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Posted: #32
Forgot to mention: please? lol. Thanks for your efforts and help.
 
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Posted: #33
bump
 
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Posted: #34
Check this stat out.

Dodgers since 2005 win 74.1% of home games following a loss of more than 5 runs.

Too bad it only happens a couple times each year.
 
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Posted: #35
Irage... if you don't mind me asking again: do you think you can backtest this for a few years back: If a team has a 1 run lead after 5 innings, what is the win % of those teams?

Thanks for your help again.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Burly:

how about home teams -150 or higher first game of a series?


Took me a little while to get the filters right on this one. Some searches are just harder than others.

Home Favorite with -150 juice or greater winning the first game of 3 game series.

Since 2004 = 47.1%

The run line only hits 26.9%, the down side is I only found one game in 2014 that met this criteria.
 
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Posted: #37
one run games by totals?
 
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Posted: #38

irage back check this only need 2 years i know the % is high to fade teams in game.

 

Heres the sceneario when a team is losing 3 -0 or 2-0 and hasnt answered back with a run within 5 innings they almost always wind up losing the game like i think it's high 90%

 

Heres another one i like to see back checked when two teams have both #1 starters facing off how many times the DOGGED team won the game s/u

NO matter if team is on a losing streak of 3 or 4 games it dosent matter just results how many times the DOGGED ace starter won the game.

 

 

 
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Posted: #39
Has there always been a "under" recorded in a 7 game homestand of these 5 Parks : LA Dodgers , Oakland A's , SF Giants, Sea Mariners, & San Diego Padres?  Reasoning: Heavy air because near water and small parks.  Thanks.
 
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Posted: #40
Thanks irage
 
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Posted: #41

Can you check with filters of win streaks?

ex. -150 team on a 3+ game winning streak home or away

 
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Posted: #42
Irage, I don't know if you saw my request, but I will ask you for a third time, please:

Do you think you can backtest this for a few years back: If a team has a 1 run lead after 5 innings, what is the win % of those teams?

Thanks and please let me know if that would be possible for you to figure out.
 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by Baath887:

Irage, I don't know if you saw my request, but I will ask you for a third time, please:

Do you think you can backtest this for a few years back: If a team has a 1 run lead after 5 innings, what is the win % of those teams?

Thanks and please let me know if that would be possible for you to figure out.

I think this site hates me. I have posted the results back to 2006 twice now, but either I am not clicking submit or it's just not posting. There from 06 - 2010 there was nothing above 49.1%, in fact 2007 I believe was 36.8%

 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by Baath887:

Irage, I don't know if you saw my request, but I will ask you for a third time, please:

Do you think you can backtest this for a few years back: If a team has a 1 run lead after 5 innings, what is the win % of those teams?

Thanks and please let me know if that would be possible for you to figure out.

Help me understand how this useful?

  • 2014 = 86.6%
  • 2013 = 88.3%
  • 2012 = 90.5%
  • 2011 = 89.0%
  • 2010 = 89.8%
  • 2009 = 87.7%
  • 2008 = 88.2%
  • 2007 = 89.1%
  • 2006 = 87.6%
  • 2005 = 88.6%
  • 2004 = 87.7%
 
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Posted: #45

6/3/2014 - Pick of the Day

Tampa Bay -115

 
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Posted: #46
Any team +.500 coming off a loss playing at home, you could also check for road.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by irage:

Help me understand how this useful?

  • 2014 = 86.6%
  • 2013 = 88.3%
  • 2012 = 90.5%
  • 2011 = 89.0%
  • 2010 = 89.8%
  • 2009 = 87.7%
  • 2008 = 88.2%
  • 2007 = 89.1%
  • 2006 = 87.6%
  • 2005 = 88.6%
  • 2004 = 87.7%


Oh crap... I think there is a misunderstanding here... I don't think I gave you a proper explanation.

I meant, when a team has a one run lead after 5 innings, what % of the time does that team go on to win the game?

That's what I meant.
Really sorry for the confusion bro, but do you think you could still give me the numbers per year? :S
 
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Posted: #48
I understood it correctly.

The numbers above are based on the the team that is ahead by 1 or more after 5 innings and goes on to win.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by irage:

I understood it correctly.

The numbers above are based on the the team that is ahead by 1 or more after 5 innings and goes on to win.


Oh ok great, thanks a lot. But what did you mean in post #43, when you said:

"There from 06 - 2010 there was nothing above 49.1%, in fact 2007 I believe was 36.8%"

What do these numbers represent?

And to answer your question: I know some books offer live bets, so I figured I might give it a shot.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by irage:

I understood it correctly.

The numbers above are based on the the team that is ahead by 1 or more after 5 innings and goes on to win.



Oohh hold on a sec! I wanted the stats to represent teams that were ahead by one run specifically after 5 innings lol, not ahead by more than one run. I think that might considerably change the numbers you posted! If you have the time to find these specific stats, I'll be very grateful.
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