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Basketball over / under system

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Prospect
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Posted: #176
u seemed to do good with it. if that isant it tell me your system cause you are making money
 
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Posted: #177
 
boist-nmexs over 156.5
no-phi under 189.5
 
2-0 last night 12-5 last 3 days.
 
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Posted: #178
Tuesday:
 

virg-clem under

mchst-ind under

fsu-duke under

webst-monst over

 

 
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Posted: #179
Calin,
 
Do you mind sharing your system or spreadsheet?
 
 
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Posted: #180
keepem coming gl dog
 
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Posted: #181
Nice Going Caline...
 
 
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Posted: #182
Quote Originally Posted by jbrent95:

Calin,
 
Do you mind sharing your system or spreadsheet?
 

The odds for basketball totals are usually -110, right? That means 52% in terms of probability.

So if we play the totals where the chances are higher than 53% we have value and we should make some profit in the long term.

So I am estimating the chances (roughly estimate) for over/under using the overall over/under statistics and play the games where the chances are 55% and higher.

If chances are between 46-54% but I find a major trend that points out 65% chances or higher for over or under I play that total. Major trends means a trend that's significant (long period of time and big number of situations, at least 30).

For instance, under is 41-17 in Virginia's last 58 (70%) as an underdog and 36-17 (83%) in Virginia's last 43 as a road underdog. For the home team (Clemson) I haven't found a significant trend going against under so I'll take the under.

 
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Posted: #183
Other example: Weber St. at Montana St.
Weber is 16-7 over in overall games (69% over)
Montana is 11-13 over in overall games (45%).
Roughly estimate would be 57% chances for over and if the bookie pays 100 for 110, why not?
And besides these roughly estimates I also found that Weber is 39-15 over (72%) in its last 54 versus Big Sky and they are also 23-11 over (67%) in its last 34 as a favourite of -0.5 to -6.5 points.
These numbers are telling me: PICK THE OVER!
 
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Posted: #184
... adding NBA games:
 

chi-cha over

pho-orl under

den-det under

nj-mil over

gs-min over

tor-hou under

 

 
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Posted: #185
... adding 4 more NCAAB...
 

gt-stj under

kanst-oklst over

utah-nm over

aub-alab over

 

 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #186
Good work
 
Prospect
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Posted: #187
tough night in the nba.

like the system tho keep up the good work.


 
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Posted: #188
great night in college tho...6-2

do you have updated records?

Thanks,

BOL to you JonnyS
 
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Posted: #189
Hey Calin...good work on your system!! I like the way in which how simple it is. In optimizing it, have you found anything wrong with it versus the old?
 
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Posted: #190

virg-clem under

mchst-ind under

fsu-duke under

webst-monst over

gt-stj under

kanst-oklst over

utah-nm over

chi-cha over

pho-orl under

den-det under

nj-mil over

gs-min over

tor-hou under

aub-alab over

 

7- 7 last night.

NCAAB: 6-2 last night

NBA: 1-5 last night ()

Overall: 19-12

 

 
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Posted: #191
WEDNESDAY:
 

bc-ncsta over

stl-duq under

rice-mars under

marq-pitt over

fla-misst over

byu-wyom over

mem-hou under

wisc-min under

okl-misso under

txam-col under

 

 
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Posted: #192
Gl today
 
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Posted: #193
...and one NBA game...
 
MEM-LAC OVER
 
 
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Posted: #194
Calinreddog,
 
how are you getting the over for mem-lac.  i thought i calculated your system to work the under.  i got 186 which is well below the total they are providing.  where am i wrong (or do you have another philosophy on this one)?  thanks.
 
 
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Posted: #195
Quote Originally Posted by Hondo05:

Calinreddog,
 
how are you getting the over for mem-lac.  i thought i calculated your system to work the under.  i got 186 which is well below the total they are providing.  where am i wrong (or do you have another philosophy on this one)?  thanks.
 

Yeah, the philosophy is different, just read some posts above (#182 and #183)

 
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Posted: #196
you are much better when you pick 3 to for games the more games you go after the odds get worse i respect do whatu want
 
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Posted: #197

bc-ncsta over

stl-duq under

rice-mars under

marq-pitt over

fla-misst over

byu-wyom over

mem-hou under

wisc-min under

okl-misso under

txam-col under

MEM-LAC OVER
 
6-5 last night
25-17 overall
 
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Posted: #198
THURSDAY:
 

stjoe-temp under

buf-kst under

frsno-boist over

lbst-calpo over

cal-arz over

 

 
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Posted: #199
... and NBA...
 
DAL-NO under
 
 
 
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Posted: #200

stjoe-temp under

buf-kst under

frsno-boist over

lbst-calpo over

cal-arz over

DAL-NO under
 
3-3 last night
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