Don't know i anyone has made a similar system/thread before. Mostly going to track it for now. Forgot about a thread related to this til just recently. Simple system. Bet the Under in games where the wind is 20+mph for 1 Unit 20+mph w/crosswinds 2 units 30+mph 3-4 units.
Thinking of Filtering teams ranked in the top 20 or 10 in Rushing yards per game. Gusts might have an effect as well.
On average you lose 6.5 PPG with 20+ mph winds. -12 PPG with 20+mph & crosswinds. @ 30+mph -20 PPG!!
Don't know i anyone has made a similar system/thread before. Mostly going to track it for now. Forgot about a thread related to this til just recently. Simple system. Bet the Under in games where the wind is 20+mph for 1 Unit 20+mph w/crosswinds 2 units 30+mph 3-4 units.
Thinking of Filtering teams ranked in the top 20 or 10 in Rushing yards per game. Gusts might have an effect as well.
On average you lose 6.5 PPG with 20+ mph winds. -12 PPG with 20+mph & crosswinds. @ 30+mph -20 PPG!!
I'm n the east coast and its ~1230 here. So I hope I dont make too many mistakes. here is the thread I mentioned earlier. Thanks tep I'm going to do some backtesting now starting with the games on that thread and whatever else I can find.
@JoshLewis - Lines come out before weather reports. If a game is set with an O/U or 45 (which is quite close to the average PPG of games with little/no wind) and in that game you have 20+mph winds then the total for that game should be set at 38.5. I see it as a free tease on the total. In the same game if you get 30+mph winds than your talking about a 20pt teaser. I would gladly take that without paying the juice to tease.
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I'm n the east coast and its ~1230 here. So I hope I dont make too many mistakes. here is the thread I mentioned earlier. Thanks tep I'm going to do some backtesting now starting with the games on that thread and whatever else I can find.
@JoshLewis - Lines come out before weather reports. If a game is set with an O/U or 45 (which is quite close to the average PPG of games with little/no wind) and in that game you have 20+mph winds then the total for that game should be set at 38.5. I see it as a free tease on the total. In the same game if you get 30+mph winds than your talking about a 20pt teaser. I would gladly take that without paying the juice to tease.
People create models where they use weather as a factor. I am just testing this to see what kind of effect winds would have
?Counter for filter is if the D of the other team is within the top 25? I'm including my thoughts in here :D
Wk3 NO plays Wk4 Can't find - im tired Wk 5 Minn vs Mich O/U 54.5 Tot 58 L Akron vs E.Mich O/U 47.5 Tot 54 L Wk 6 Mizz vs. Kan.St NOT a Play W (Both teams in top 20 in Rushing) Wk7 Tol vs BG O/U 61.5 Tot 49 W Utah vs. Pitt O/U 45 Tot 40 W Mich vs. MichSt O/U 47.5 tot 42 W E.Mich vs C.Mich O/U 51. tot 63 L (36pts in 4th) Miami(O) vs Kent St O/U 41 Tot 12 W Wk 8 NO Plays Wk9 OKl vs. Kan.St O/U 57.5 Tot 75 L (5 TD's through the air for Ok) Wk 10 Kansas vs Iowa O/U 60 Tot 23 W A&M vs Okla O/U 67 Tot 66 W (tot in first half was 23; noticing that some games the second half scores are ridiculous compared to 1st hf. Maybe wind died down - would first half unders be a better bet?) TCU vs Wyo O/U 56 Tot 51 W Neb vs. NWest O/U 62.5 Tot 53 W Kan.St vs Okl St O/U 70 tot 97 L purdue vs Wis O/U 58 tot 79 L
I am getting a record of 9-6. The top 10/20 in rush offense filter is no good. need something else. On top of that don't know what were the direction/speed of wind for these games.
Anyone wanna chip in with some ideas feel free.
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People create models where they use weather as a factor. I am just testing this to see what kind of effect winds would have
?Counter for filter is if the D of the other team is within the top 25? I'm including my thoughts in here :D
Wk3 NO plays Wk4 Can't find - im tired Wk 5 Minn vs Mich O/U 54.5 Tot 58 L Akron vs E.Mich O/U 47.5 Tot 54 L Wk 6 Mizz vs. Kan.St NOT a Play W (Both teams in top 20 in Rushing) Wk7 Tol vs BG O/U 61.5 Tot 49 W Utah vs. Pitt O/U 45 Tot 40 W Mich vs. MichSt O/U 47.5 tot 42 W E.Mich vs C.Mich O/U 51. tot 63 L (36pts in 4th) Miami(O) vs Kent St O/U 41 Tot 12 W Wk 8 NO Plays Wk9 OKl vs. Kan.St O/U 57.5 Tot 75 L (5 TD's through the air for Ok) Wk 10 Kansas vs Iowa O/U 60 Tot 23 W A&M vs Okla O/U 67 Tot 66 W (tot in first half was 23; noticing that some games the second half scores are ridiculous compared to 1st hf. Maybe wind died down - would first half unders be a better bet?) TCU vs Wyo O/U 56 Tot 51 W Neb vs. NWest O/U 62.5 Tot 53 W Kan.St vs Okl St O/U 70 tot 97 L purdue vs Wis O/U 58 tot 79 L
I am getting a record of 9-6. The top 10/20 in rush offense filter is no good. need something else. On top of that don't know what were the direction/speed of wind for these games.
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