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College hoops system......give it a look

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:


Guilty as charged, I did not back test and used a previous posters numbers as correct. 
Okay...your sentence is 12 continous hours of community service at  Sheri's Ranch in Pahrump, Nevada...
 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Okay...your sentence is 12 continous hours of community service at  Sheri's Ranch in Pahrump, Nevada...

I'll have to do that when I am there in the fall for the grape stomp!

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

There are 221 games that fit the prescribed criteria from last season where the results are unaccounted for, I ask the contributors "how could 3 posters post three different W/L statistics pertaining to the exact assessment of a past trend  and eliminate 221 occurances? somebody didn't do their homework..or were just plain lazy

bottom line: 5-5 with momentum


I quickly skimmed through this thread yesterday, and came back today to check the status. So you're saying playing all the home dogs in these matchups would have been profitable last year even though the original post indicates a loss? So I should start tailing these bets. I ask because I actually bet unc -3.5 last night and I guess I just got lucky there?

 
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Posted: #29
You should never bet any system until you have confirmed the numbers and positive value bet expectancy for yourself.
 
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Posted: #30
Tuesday 1/05; three plays:

Auburn +7
DePaul +9.5
LSU +3.5

Public on Kentucky, but line moving down...good luck tonight guys.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Ken, all conference games (221) last season where the visiting team was ranked in the AP Top 25 and the home team was listed as the 'dog'  the dog WON 164 games, and LOST 57 (74.2%)

this information is readily available on Covers.com NCAAB Scores & Matchups, click: archives 2014-2015



There seems to be an issue here SN.

When you are looking at past results, the ranking number that appears is the ranking number from TODAY, not from when the match occurred.

We would need to find archived ranking numbers to accurately back test this.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

You should never bet any system until you have confirmed the numbers and positive value bet expectancy for yourself.
absolutely
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:



There seems to be an issue here SN.

When you are looking at past results, the ranking number that appears is the ranking number from TODAY, not from when the match occurred.

We would need to find archived ranking numbers to accurately back test this.
I understand what you're saying.. this was my major concern, going back to last season, I not only had to dig out the home dog WINS, I also had to confirm the AP Top 25 rankings  of the visiting favorite, not an easy chore, as I had to use no alternative other than a manual research mode, I don't know how many college games are played yearly; but in the Big Ten conference alone they play 350+ games per year, meaning the entire NCAAB season including all conferences has to be aprx close to 2,700 games 'at least' per year, and Iam low balling it..however, when going into last seasons results on Covers NCAAB matchups & Scores 2014-2015 the AP ranking is visible in the boxscore. on top of the results, this goes back 6 years; if need be..
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by dawgtennis07:


I quickly skimmed through this thread yesterday, and came back today to check the status. So you're saying playing all the home dogs in these matchups would have been profitable last year even though the original post indicates a loss? So I should start tailing these bets. I ask because I actually bet unc -3.5 last night and I guess I just got lucky there?

I am not saying 'all' the home dogs, pick and choose your own plays, tailing will get you nowhere when betting sports. and yes, if you played all the home dogs that beat an AP Top 25 team you would have made a hefty profit last season. congratulations on your UNC -3.5 WIN, no, you didn't "just got lucky there" you capped a winner, UNC was the better team last night, luck had nothing to do with it.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by kenkean89:

Tuesday 1/05; three plays:

Auburn +7      LOSS
DePaul +9.5   WIN
LSU +3.5       WIN

Public on Kentucky, but line moving down...good luck tonight guys.
2-1 a profitable night in college hoops, valued play on LSU +3.5 who trounced Kentucky
 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by kenkean89:


1. Must be a conference game (only)
2. You always play on the home team  (dog)
3. Visitor must be ranked in the top 25  (AP)
4. Visitor must be favored

 
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Ken, all conference games (221) last season where the visiting team was ranked in the AP Top 25 and the home team was listed as the 'dog'  the dog WON 164 games, and LOST 57 (74.2%)

this information is readily available on Covers.com NCAAB Scores & Matchups, click: archives 2014-2015

a key element is in reference to Conference games, there were/are an abundance of Top 25 (AP) favorites playing home dogs (that are non-conference games) last season 221 games fell under the conference, home dog criteria, as described by the rules set forth within this thread
 
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Posted: #38
2-1 Tuesday, putting us at 7-6 to this point. Back later with today's plays.
 
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Posted: #39
Wednesday 1/06; three plays:

Wake Forest +8
Miss St. +7
St. John's +15.5

Let's keep the momentum going, good luck tonight guys........
 
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Posted: #40
Hey Ken,
Are you still planning to play the dogs that are greater than 14.5?
I started back checking last night, it doesn't look good for teams that are dogged so heavily.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

Hey Ken,
Are you still planning to play the dogs that are greater than 14.5?
I started back checking last night, it doesn't look good for teams that are dogged so heavily.

I am, as long as they are receiving <50% of spread bets. At the moment, almost 80% of all bets are on Xavier. I'm a big fade the public guy and won't have any "public plays" in this thread. 
 
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Posted: #42
Nice call on that one Ken!

I think it will be a good idea to record the margin of victory against the spread too, which will hopefully assist us in determing how solid this system really is.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by kenkean89:

 
"I am, as long as they are receiving <50% of spread bets. At the moment, almost 80% of all bets are on Xavier. I'm a big fade the public guy and won't have any "public plays" in this thread" 

That's how it works, well said

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by kenkean89:

Wednesday 1/06; three plays:

Wake Forest +8  LOSS
Miss St. +7         WIN
St. John's +15.5   WIN

Let's keep the momentum going, good luck tonight guys........
Money & Momentum, another profitable evening of 'pick and play'.....
 
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Posted: #45
Loving this thread. I plan to do some back checking of my own. I'm relatively new to covers and generally just bet football. But after a solid season I wanted to get better at Basketball too. Can anyone provide some resources to check this system, along with any over valuable sources for handicapping college ball?
 
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Posted: #46
Alright, 2-1 Wednesday, as Duke bites us for the second time in five days. That leaves us at 9-7 for the week.
 
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Posted: #47
Thursday 1/05; two plays:

NC State +6
UCLA +3

This will conclude week 1, as there will be no plays tomorrow. Week 2 starts Saturday. Lets end it on a winning note! Good luck on all plays today guys.
 
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Posted: #48
BOL everyone!
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by kenkean89:

Thursday 1/05; two plays:

NC State +6
UCLA +3

This will conclude week 1, as there will be no plays tomorrow. Week 2 starts Saturday. Lets end it on a winning note! Good luck on all plays today guys.

Nice 2-0 night, 11-7 for the week. Benn playing this on a labby line and doing well.

Also, I did a little back checking and found that taking non-ranked AWAY dogs vs ranked conference team has gone 13-10 since Dec 30. I'll keep tracking this to see if it holds up.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
 
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Posted: #50
2-0 Thursday, leaving us at 11-7 for the week. A flat bettor at $100 per game made $330 profit; or even more with a labby or Stoffo type set up as Dan mentioned above. 
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