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College hoops system......give it a look

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Posted: #176
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

excellent work, and tracking technique, unsurpassed to say the least. I believe Ken is using the 'flat-betting' concept to simplify tracking WINS, based on the value of the thread. The link to the google-drive-sheet is all anyone really needs who is interested in the tracking this system, appreciate your effort immensely, recommended advice: to those consistently flat betting this system, you need to convert your MM technique to a 4 unit cover denomination attached to a 2 unit ML WIN denomination; equative to a 6 unit recovery formula... At 53-31 (63%) with 30 ML WINS; first half wagering should be given strong consideration as an additional daily play, although not connected to the system, the stats speak for themselves, and gives a solid read to 'home dog first half wagering when playing a top 25 AP conference team'...
 
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Posted: #177
A 1-1 evening, looks like we'll end the week at 7-4. Unless the Vandy line takes a dramatic turn, no plays today or tomorrow. Week 6 will start Saturday; back later with an update.





 
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Posted: #178
Thanks for the feedback guys. S_N, I wasn't sure if anyone liked those stats, or would find use in them, so I had to work it all out again. Now I have a separate sheet for the varying spreads and a sheet for the stats to update daily.  If anyone can think of any other pieces of information they'd like to see, let me know and I'll do my best to make it happen.  Thanks again for getting this thread going, and lets gear up for a big weekend!
 
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Posted: #179
No play tonight guys, Vandy 1-2 point fave across multiple books. Dawg, thanks for the stats, first half plays look enticing!
 
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Posted: #180
After five weeks; here is how we stand:

Week 1:   11-7   61%
Week 2:   12-5   71%
Week 3:     7-6   54%
Week 4:     9-3   75%
Week 5:     7-4   64%

Overall, 46-25, or 65%

Double digit dogs are 13-5 to this point

Small pups (4 points or less) are now 17-8

$100 per game on the ML would have you up approx $2300 through week five

Very satisfying to see we've now had five winning weeks in a row. Thanks for everyone's input and comments, see you Saturday morning............
 
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Posted: #181
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

excellent work, and tracking technique, unsurpassed to say the least. I believe Ken is using the 'flat-betting' concept to simplify tracking WINS, based on the value of the thread. The link to the google-drive-sheet is all anyone really needs who is interested in the tracking this system, appreciate your effort immensely, recommended advice: to those consistently flat betting this system, you need to convert your MM technique to a 4 unit cover denomination attached to a 2 unit ML WIN denomination; equative to a 6 unit recovery formula... At 53-31 (63%) with 30 ML WINS; first half wagering should be given strong consideration as an additional daily play, although not connected to the system, the stats speak for themselves, and gives a solid read to 'home dog first half wagering when playing a top 25 AP conference team'...

s_N
Can you elaborate or shed some insight on a recommended recovery formula?

Thanks for your contributions here, always a worthy read
 
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Posted: #182
Been doing something with home dogs+4 to +8, coupled with some stats from Kenpom the last few weeks going 8-2.

Got Youngstown St +5.5  on Saturday and not real comfortable with this one but will play it out.

GL
 
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Posted: #183
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:


s_N
Can you elaborate or shed some insight on a recommended recovery formula?

Thanks for your contributions here, always a worthy read
Yes, when hedging a pointspread/ML play: recovery is based on assurance, to equate the ML LOSS and the pointspread WIN, Initiating Martingale²_Agression on your proceeding hedged wager involving taking the spread, and playing the ML on the same game
 
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Posted: #184
Week 6 starts now, four early games:

526   Pitt +1.5
530   TCU +13
552   Okie St. +4.5
562   Michigan +4

At the moment, public is on Providence, so we will pass that game. If that changes prior to tip, I will post it. Back in a few hours with later games. Good luck guys!!

 
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Posted: #185
Saturday 2/06; part two, six plays:

608   Wash +4
624   G Mason +10
628   Kansas St. +6
640   ND +3
676   Penn St. 8.5
692   Illinois St. +13

Good luck!!
 
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Posted: #186
Damn 0-4 early plays, hope 2nd group does better bud
 
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Posted: #187
Ouch...should have been 1-3 but OSU choked and turned the ball over with 20 seconds left. Then they could not score on their final drive.  
 
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Posted: #188
Ugh Washington and George Mason fall, but Kansas state looks prosperous.  Let's gain some momentum from K state and win out the rest of the night
 
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Posted: #189
What a crazy day, terrible in the early action, but system finished with four covers and four ML wins. I was officially 4-5-1, catching Okie St. +5.......I was not a fan of having ten plays, but sooner or later you knew we would have a Saturday like that. I played a some Labby lines, which worked out well with the late winners. Back in a bit with Sunday action.
 
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Posted: #190
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Yes, when hedging a pointspread/ML play: recovery is based on assurance, to equate the ML LOSS and the pointspread WIN, Initiating Martingale²_Agression on your proceeding hedged wager involving taking the spread, and playing the ML on the same game

Thanks s_N.  I require clarification on how to apply this with multiple losses in a day, as we saw yesterday.  Luckily for me I was only on the late games and profited overall.

For the games that lost, is the recovery formula applied to when the winning AP team plays again?  For example wait for Arizona[AP 23] to play again and fade them applying the recovery formula? or apply the recovery formula to the next set of games kenkean89 releases?  I was up on the day overall, so my conservative self says don't worry about the losses and carry on.. More concerned for the future days ahead.  Hopefully we don't have to many days with 10 plays.  Less games is more manageable

I'm sure there are several ways to do it, just looking for some clarification/advice.

 
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Posted: #191
It would be the next set of games that ken picks, not wait until Arizona plays again.
 
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Posted: #192
Sunday 2/07; three plays:

862   Illinois +11
864   GT +4.5
868   S. Florida +16

Lets get it today guys, good luck in hoops and any Super Bowl plays you may have!!
 
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Posted: #193
Was this the first Saturday with a losing record?  I'll go through my stuff and get a daily breakdown later on. But my theory is these home dogs likely do better on Wednesdays and Thursdays, because I feel your home court advantage is stronger.  Being the home team on Saturday has these negative effects.  

--You're at home, you are likely to get out and stay out past curfew because this is your town. Maybe you drink/party, or even just chill with friends. You may not be as well rested
--Lots of fans are hungover for the noon local time games, and are therefore less involved in the energy.  I know that energy from the fans means a lot.  I went to a commuter college, and never went to weekend games but I went nuts for games during the week.
--The away team has more time to get to town, rest, and focus on this game as their school and personal responsibilities are taken care of during the week.  Also, for a rivalry, the away fans have an easier time making the trip also helping combat the home crowd energy.

There are plenty of other reasons that a weekend lessens a school's home court advantage, but I find those to be the strongest factors.  I'll work on the daily breakdowns this week, and at the end of the year I'm going to be doing a conference breakdown.

GL today guys, Lets sweep it!
 
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Posted: #194
DT, don't have the #'s with me, but our weekday record is far better than the wekend plays. I will post what I have tomorrow......GL today.
 
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Posted: #195
Quote Originally Posted by SUPEREAGLE43:

It would be the next set of games that ken picks, not wait until Arizona plays again.

I didn't apply recovery to yesterday's set as I don't fully comprehend how to execute the method mentioned by sports_Network.  How does the loss get spread out over the days wagers?  Spread it out equally across all bets, ATS|ML|ATS FIRST HALF?  Good thing I didn't because the system got pounded again yesterday.
 
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Posted: #196
Alright, 0-3 Sunday wraps up a crappy 4-8 weekend. We have some ground to make up by Friday to avoid what would be our first losing week of the season. Back later with Monday plays.
 
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Posted: #197
Monday 2/08; no plays

Back on Tuesday
 
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Posted: #198
I'm just going to chime in here , take it or leave it.
I followed this system Ken thanks for sharing, but decided to leave it after the 4-0 day we had. Thought for a system so simple to be up quite a few units was very nice. Betting 1% of bankroll per bet, increased the bankroll by 10% in a month.
In my opinion a 10 unit profit in a month is great in anyone's book.
If you continue to play out the season, good luck! But I'd suggest taking your money and having a breather before MLB starts up.
 
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Posted: #199
Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

I'm just going to chime in here , take it or leave it.
I followed this system Ken thanks for sharing, but decided to leave it after the 4-0 day we had. Thought for a system so simple to be up quite a few units was very nice. Betting 1% of bankroll per bet, increased the bankroll by 10% in a month.
In my opinion a 10 unit profit in a month is great in anyone's book.
If you continue to play out the season, good luck! But I'd suggest taking your money and having a breather before MLB starts up.
Hey River, while I certainly respect your opinion, I will respectfully disagree. This silly little "system" I came up with was just on a whim, and I thought it might work. We stood at 46 wins and 25 losses after five weeks, plus a gain of approx 23 units on the money line. This past weekend was an absolute disaster, but I can't let two days worth of plays convince me that its time to bail. This may sound stupid, but I would rather stay with it and lose a few bucks than abandon the system and see it continue to win. There may come a time when we abandon ship, but for me that time has not arrived. Moving forward, we have about four weeks remaining in the regular season and I plan on taking the entire body of work and seeing where we can improve upon it for next season. Thanks for your input and insights, and remember everyone on this forum is in this together to beat the books. And yes, I am ready for baseball season! Cheers 
 
 
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Posted: #200
 Ken, a very well thought out response to ludicrous  commentary. (many would have ripped rivermonsterz a new azzhole) May I add, this past weekend was far from being a 'disaster' 4 high value ML WINS (Kansas State +650 ML being one of them)  you also listed a PUSH that was a WIN in the majority of books, making it 5-5 of ten, a disaster? I don't think so...
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