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College hoops system......give it a look

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Posted: #151
Week 5 starts today, two plays:

538 DePaul +11
562 NC State +5

Public very heavy on both Xavier and Miami, good luck today guys!
 
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Posted: #152
what about 576 lsu
 
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Posted: #153
James, LSU/Okie was a non- conference game, a no play for this system.
 
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Posted: #154
Good morning to all, 1-1 yesterday; ML players made a few bucks on NC St. with the straight up win.

Sunday 1/31; three plays:

848   St. John's +20
850   Ohio St. +5
864   Evansville +4

Note the early tip time in the St. John's game. Good luck today!!
 
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Posted: #155
Ken,  Is Arizona State a no play tonight? Or are we waiting to see which way the money leans?

GL everyone 
 
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Posted: #156
Ken it shows public is on St John's with us...? About 58% is on St John's still should we take it ?
 
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Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by NYJ33:

Ken it shows public is on St John's with us...? About 58% is on St John's still should we take it ?
NY, the spots I trust the most are showing 60-65% on Nova......a close call, but I am on St. John's.
 
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Posted: #158
Quote Originally Posted by dawgtennis07:

Ken,  Is Arizona State a no play tonight? Or are we waiting to see which way the money leans?

GL everyone 
Yes sir, starting to see public moving on Oregon, I will check the %'s mid afternoon.....looks like it will be a play, thanks.
 
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Posted: #159
Sunday 1/31; one late play:

880   Arizona St. +3

80% + pounding Oregon........good luck tonight!
 
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Posted: #160

St Johns+20 covers another 'double-digit' WIN Vs. #6 Villanova (Big East)

 

 
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Posted: #161
Quote Originally Posted by kenkean89:

 "the spots I trust the most are showing 60-65% on Nova......a close call, but I am on St. John's"
the stats of this thread clearly indicate home double digit dogs are the premier plays, yesterday's St John's+20 WIN continues to trend in that direrction consistently throughout....
 
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Posted: #162
Alright, 1-2 yesterday, a less than spectacular 2-3 weekend. Back this afternoon with Monday action

On a brighter note, for the month of January, system went 41-24, or 63%. $100 per game would have netted a +$1,460 profit for the month. Lets see what February brings.
 
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Posted: #163
Monday 2/01; one play:

Houston +6

Good luck tonight.....
 
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Posted: #164
nice hit
 
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Posted: #165
Alright, 1-0 last night, bringing us to 3-3 for the week. Good pop for the ML players as well, back later with Tuesday's action.......
 
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Posted: #166
Tuesday 2/02; three plays:

726   Tennessee +8
728   Georgia +1.5
754   DePaul +8

Lets get it, good luck tonight!
 
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Posted: #167
Quote Originally Posted by kenkean89:

Tuesday 2/02; three plays:
726   Tennessee +8  WIN  +330 ML
728   Georgia +1.5    WIN  +112 ML
754   DePaul +8        WIN  +315 ML

Let's get it, good luck tonight!

Chalk it up; 6-3 (4-0 LTD all ML ) congratulations to those playing the ML 'dogs' excellent read on TENN +330 & DePaul +315, exceptional value WINS

 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by dawgtennis07:

Everything from completed games so far.

ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (21-11-3) 14 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (23-12) 15 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (17-17-1) 11 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (19-16)
1st Half: (17-18)
2nd Half: (23-12)
Appreciate the stats, can you post a YTD update? thanks 
 
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Posted: #169
Great night, 3-0 for the evening with all three pups cashing the ML as well; that brings us to 6-3 for the week. Hope everybody made a few bucks.......back later with Wednesday action.
 
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Posted: #170
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Appreciate the stats, can you post a YTD update? thanks 


S_N,  I have been working on separating the bets based on spread ranges. +.5 to +3, +3.5 to +5 and so on because I'd like to develop a better MM strategy than flat betting them all. I'm going to flat bet them through february, but it may be something to try next year as well. Here is the link to the google drive sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P7zGI5Qz83cIZxtrEE9vp-0EYwoJ6MIX-glhHdu7yZQ/edit#gid=0

Note that I am tracking all games without regard to where the public money is, so there are games in my stats that ken has left out of the system.  Also, I use the lines when they close, so some of us have lost a game or 2 by a half point or a point, but the closing line was a winner, so I've used the closing line as a control. With this system one thing is clear, the later you wait to place the bet, generally the better line you get.

As far as pure stats from January 1,2016 to present is:

ATS:
Game: (50-33-1) 32 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (52-31-1) 30 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (45-37-2) 32 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (41-43)
1st Half: (42-42)
2nd Half: (44-38-2)

Spread is .5>3
ATS:
Game: (12-7-1) 12 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (11-9)  10 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (10-9-1) 10 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (8-12)
1st Half: (9-11)
2nd Half: (11-9)

Spread is 3.5>5
ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (8-6-4) 7 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (11-7)  10 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (8-10)  8 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (11-7)
1st Half: (11-7)
2nd Half: (13-5)

Spread is 5.5>10
ATS:
Game: (20-12)  10 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (19-13)  7 ML wins and 3 push for dogs
2nd Half: (19-12-1) 11 ML and 1 push wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (17-15)
1st Half: (18-14)
2nd Half: (13-17-2)

Spread is 10.5>15

ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (7-3) 3 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (8-1-1)  3 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (7-3)  3 ML wins and 1 pushfor dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (3-7)
1st Half: (2-8)
2nd Half: (5-5)

Spread is 15+
ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (3-1)  0 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (3-1)  0 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (1-3)  0 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (2-2)
1st Half: (2-2)
2nd Half: (2-2)
 
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Posted: #171
Wednesday 2/03; two plays:

554   Nebraska +6
562   Wash. St. +10

Public bangin the crap out of Maryland and Arizona.....good luck tonight!
 
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Posted: #172
 Nebraska +6 / -110  WINNER
 
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[Quote: Originally Posted by dawgtennis07]

S_N,  I have been working on separating the bets based on spread ranges. +.5 to +3, +3.5 to +5 and so on because I'd like to develop a better MM strategy than flat betting them all. I'm going to flat bet them through february, but it may be something to try next year as well. Here is the link to the google drive sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P7zGI5Qz83cIZxtrEE9vp-0EYwoJ6MIX-glhHdu7yZQ/edit#gid=0

Note that I am tracking all games without regard to where the public money is, so there are games in my stats that ken has left out of the system.  Also, I use the lines when they close, so some of us have lost a game or 2 by a half point or a point, but the closing line was a winner, so I've used the closing line as a control. With this system one thing is clear, the later you wait to place the bet, generally the better line you get.

As far as pure stats from January 1,2016 to present is:

ATS:
Game: (50-33-1) 32 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (52-31-1) 30 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (45-37-2) 32 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (41-43)
1st Half: (42-42)
2nd Half: (44-38-2)

Spread is .5>3
ATS:
Game: (12-7-1) 12 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (11-9)  10 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (10-9-1) 10 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (8-12)
1st Half: (9-11)
2nd Half: (11-9)

Spread is 3.5>5
ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (8-6-4) 7 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (11-7)  10 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (8-10)  8 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (11-7)
1st Half: (11-7)
2nd Half: (13-5)

Spread is 5.5>10
ATS:
Game: (20-12)  10 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (19-13)  7 ML wins and 3 push for dogs
2nd Half: (19-12-1) 11 ML and 1 push wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (17-15)
1st Half: (18-14)
2nd Half: (13-17-2)

Spread is 10.5>15

ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (7-3) 3 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (8-1-1)  3 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (7-3)  3 ML wins and 1 push for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (3-7)
1st Half: (2-8)
2nd Half: (5-5)

Spread is 15+
ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (3-1)  0 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (3-1)  0 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (1-3)  0 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (2-2)
1st Half: (2-2)
2nd Half: (2-2)
[/Quote] excellent work, and tracking technique, unsurpassed to say the least. I believe Ken is using the 'flat-betting' concept to simplify tracking WINS, based on the value of the thread. The link to the google-drive-sheet is all anyone really needs who is interested in the tracking this system, appreciate your effort immensely, recommended advice: to those consistently flat betting this system, you need to convert your MM technique to a 4 unit cover denomination attached to a 2 unit ML WIN denomination; equative to a 6 unit recovery formula... At 53-31 (63%) with 30 ML WINS; first half wagering should be given strong consideration as an additional daily play, although not connected to the system, the stats speak for themselves, and gives a solid read to 'home dog first half wagering when playing a top 25 AP conference team'...
 
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Posted: #174
Quote Originally Posted by dawgtennis07:



S_N,  I have been working on separating the bets based on spread ranges. +.5 to +3, +3.5 to +5 and so on because "I'd like to develop a better MM strategy than flat betting them all". I'm going to flat bet them through february, but it may be something to try next year as well. Here is the link to the google drive sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P7zGI5Qz83cIZxtrEE9vp-0EYwoJ6MIX-glhHdu7yZQ/edit#gid=0

Note that I am tracking all games without regard to where the public money is, so there are games in my stats that ken has left out of the system.  Also, I use the lines when they close, so some of us have lost a game or 2 by a half point or a point, but the closing line was a winner, so I've used the closing line as a control. With this system "one thing is clear, the later you wait to place the bet, generally the better line you get"

As far as pure stats from January 1,2016 to present is:

ATS:
Game: (50-33-1) 32 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (52-31-1) 30 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (45-37-2) 32 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (41-43)
1st Half: (42-42)
2nd Half: (44-38-2)

Spread is .5>3
ATS:
Game: (12-7-1) 12 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (11-9)  10 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (10-9-1) 10 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (8-12)
1st Half: (9-11)
2nd Half: (11-9)

Spread is 3.5>5
ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (8-6-4) 7 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (11-7)  10 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (8-10)  8 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (11-7)
1st Half: (11-7)
2nd Half: (13-5)

Spread is 5.5>10
ATS:
Game: (20-12)  10 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (19-13)  7 ML wins and 3 push for dogs
2nd Half: (19-12-1) 11 ML and 1 push wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (17-15)
1st Half: (18-14)
2nd Half: (13-17-2)

Spread is 10.5>15

ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (7-3) 3 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (8-1-1)  3 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (7-3)  3 ML wins and 1 pushfor dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (3-7)
1st Half: (2-8)
2nd Half: (5-5)

Spread is 15+
ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (3-1)  0 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (3-1)  0 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (1-3)  0 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (2-2)
1st Half: (2-2)
2nd Half: (2-2)
first half stats a key element
 
 
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Posted: #175
kenkeane89, dawgtennis07, sports_Network

Kudos to you guys for a great combined effort here in bringing a nice system to the forum, great tracking and a new MM strategy.

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