I know it's just mid July and the midsummer classic is now upon us. I'm excited to make some more loot betting in these baseball games, but I'm beyond excited to start betting on the upcoming college football games. So my question is do you guys have any profitable systems that you use during the ncaa football!?!?

I finished the NCAA season from last year. At $100 per parlay, if I have this figured correctly: wk 1: 8-7, -$120 wk 2: 10-4, $800 wk 3: 11-6, $560 wk 4: 10-5, $600 wk 5: 7-4, $320 wk 6: 9-1, $1,240 wk 7: 6-4, $160 wk 8: 6-4, $160 wk 9: 8-4, $480 wk 10: 6-7, -$440 wk 11: 7-5, $120 wk 12: 10-5, $600 wk 13: 9-6-1, $230.90 (the push would be -$9.10) wk 14: 9-5, $440 Total: 116-67-1 = $5150.90 profit / $36,800 bet = 14% ROI I like these numbers. Going to have to backtest other seasons.

[Quote: Originally Posted by Bart_] +1 I think most don't allow both parlay plays to be on the same game. [/Quote] Use multiple books - one for the fave and over, the other book for dog and under.

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Daydreaming of college football

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traderjoe13

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 696

Posted: Jul. 13, 2014 - 9:43 PM ET #1

I know it's just mid July and the midsummer classic is now upon us. I'm excited to make some more loot betting in these baseball games, but I'm beyond excited to start betting on the upcoming college football games. So my question is do you guys have any profitable systems that you use during the ncaa football!?!?

Pallymage

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 7

Posted: Aug. 9, 2014 - 11:46 AM ET #2

Yes, I have several college football betting systems. Each one can be proven using covers historical record of matchups and lines.
First system
Divide the over/under by 3 if the number is less than or equal to the point spread then bet the fav and over and the underdog and under in 2 desperate parlays. For example, if LSU is a 22 point fav over Alabama and the total is 60 then 60/3 is 20 so u would parlay LSU and over and parlay Bama and the under.
One more rule is that u must bet a minimum of ten games a week. Last year the first 14 weeks qualified. The only negative with the system is that u must rusk a lot of money to win a little. However, it is as sure money as u can get. If u r betting $100 per parlay and 10 games qualify then u will be risking over 2k.
Another college rule is to bet the team coming off a bye.
Also always bet the home underdog on Thursday nights.
NFL rule is to always bet the home team coming off an embarrassing road loss the week prior.

traderjoe13

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 696

Posted: Aug. 9, 2014 - 12:00 PM ET #3

Quote Originally Posted by Pallymage:

Yes, I have several college football betting systems. Each one can be proven using covers historical record of matchups and lines.
First system
Divide the over/under by 3 if the number is less than or equal to the point spread then bet the fav and over and the underdog and under in 2 desperate parlays. For example, if LSU is a 22 point fav over Alabama and the total is 60 then 60/3 is 20 so u would parlay LSU and over and parlay Bama and the under.
One more rule is that u must bet a minimum of ten games a week. Last year the first 14 weeks qualified. The only negative with the system is that u must rusk a lot of money to win a little. However, it is as sure money as u can get. If u r betting $100 per parlay and 10 games qualify then u will be risking over 2k.
Another college rule is to bet the team coming off a bye.
Also always bet the home underdog on Thursday nights.
NFL rule is to always bet the home team coming off an embarrassing road loss the week prior.

traderjoe13

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 696

Posted: Aug. 9, 2014 - 12:04 PM ET #4

Thanx for the info pally. I know fading ncaa teams going into a bye week has been profitableble as well. Also betting against a team that beat the same opponent the previius year by 40+ points has also been extremely profitable for me over the past few seasons. Please keep them coming!!!

Danrules24

Captain

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 5921

Posted: Aug. 9, 2014 - 1:44 PM ET #5

I backtested the first 3 weeks of last college football season. At $100 per parlay, if I have this figured correctly:

Wk 1: 8-7, -$120

Wk 2: 10-4, $800

Wk 3: 11-6, $560

That would be $200 bet per game, $9200 bet, $1240 won, 13.5% ROI. So far so good. I'll test more later.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll

Danrules24

Captain

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 5921

Posted: Aug. 10, 2014 - 4:36 AM ET #6

I finished the NCAA season from last year. At $100 per parlay, if I have this figured correctly:

wk 1: 8-7, -$120
wk 2: 10-4, $800
wk 3: 11-6, $560
wk 4: 10-5, $600
wk 5: 7-4, $320
wk 6: 9-1, $1,240
wk 7: 6-4, $160
wk 8: 6-4, $160
wk 9: 8-4, $480
wk 10: 6-7, -$440
wk 11: 7-5, $120
wk 12: 10-5, $600
wk 13: 9-6-1, $230.90 (the push would be -$9.10)
wk 14: 9-5, $440

Total: 116-67-1 = $5150.90 profit / $36,800 bet = 14% ROI

I like these numbers. Going to have to backtest other seasons.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll

Kababayan

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 114

Posted: Aug. 10, 2014 - 1:13 PM ET #7

This sounds great but, unless I'm wrong, many books won't allow you to parlay a pointspread and a total from the same game. I forgot the term for it but it was very profitable from a few years ago and books caught on. Again, I may be thinking of something else. Thanks for the info.

Pallymage

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 7

Posted: Aug. 10, 2014 - 9:45 PM ET #8

Trade, what do u mean by fading a team going into a bye? I am excited to try your 40 point rule, that's a new one for me.
Dan, thanks for the back test. It's true that many bookies will not allow these types of bets.

Bart_

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2008

Posts: 3549

Posted: Aug. 10, 2014 - 10:00 PM ET #9

Quote Originally Posted by Kababayan:

This sounds great but, unless I'm wrong, many books won't allow you to parlay a pointspread and a total from the same game. I forgot the term for it but it was very profitable from a few years ago and books caught on. Again, I may be thinking of something else. Thanks for the info.

I think most don't allow both parlay plays to be on the same game.

Danrules24

Captain

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 5921

Posted: Aug. 10, 2014 - 10:15 PM ET #10

Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:

I think most don't allow both parlay plays to be on the same game.

Use multiple books - one for the fave and over, the other book for dog and under.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll

traderjoe13

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 696

Posted: Aug. 11, 2014 - 12:58 AM ET #11

Quote Originally Posted by Pallymage:

Trade, what do u mean by
fading a team going into a bye? I am excited to try your 40 point rule, that's a new one for me. Dan, thanks for the back test. It's true that many bookies will not allow these types of bets.

I'm not sure of the exact numbers but I remember the past couple of years teams playing in the week before their bye week didn't cover about 60% of the time. The 40 pt system has around 9 plays this year if I remember correctly

Danrules24

Captain

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 5921

Posted: Aug. 11, 2014 - 2:19 AM ET #12

One part of this that has bothered me was betting the two parlays. You know you will lose one and possibly both. So, I went back and ran the numbers for betting just one way or the other. The parlay betting on the Fave and over would have won $5910 while the dog and under lost $760. Adding these together gets you the total of $5150 that I had in post 6.

The interesting part about this is that you only bet 1/2 the amount as you would if you bet both parts since you are only doing one $100 parlay. $5910 won on $18,400 bet = 32% ROI.

Of course I'll have to check previous years to see if the fave and over angle holds up. If it varies from year to year vs dogs and under, you'd be better of hedging and betting both. Will post when I do more testing.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll

Danrules24

Captain

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 5921

Posted: Aug. 11, 2014 - 3:14 AM ET #13

Just ran through the 2012 season.

Betting both: $1720 (on $27,800 bet = 6% ROI)

Faves/Over: $3020 (on $13,900 bet = 21.7% ROI)

Dogs/Under: Lost $1300

Will check more years later.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll

Danrules24

Captain

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 5921

Posted: Aug. 11, 2014 - 9:39 PM ET #14

2011 season:

Betting both: $1360

Faves/Over: $1760

Dogs/Under: Lost $400

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll

traderjoe13

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 696

Posted: Aug. 11, 2014 - 10:46 PM ET #15

Thank you for tge hard work dan!

Ordinaryday6

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2013

Posts: 190

Posted: Aug. 12, 2014 - 12:25 AM ET #16

yeah, thanks for backtesting, Dan. how are you going about doing it? i've heard of this strategy before (betting both parlays - though the strategy recommended betting when the spread = 41%+ of the total), and i started to backtest, but it was incredibly tedious, the way i was doing it.

Danrules24

Captain

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 5921

Posted: Aug. 12, 2014 - 1:24 AM ET #17

I went through the games listed on covers, week by week. Didn't take too long per season.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll

Danrules24

Captain

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 5921

Posted: Aug. 13, 2014 - 1:56 AM ET #18

2010 season:

Betting both: $4400

Faves/Over: $4900

Dogs/Under: Lost $500

4 year results:

Betting both: $12,630

Faves/Over: $15,590

Dogs/Under: Lost $2,960

Given that betting on the dogs and under lost money each of the last 4 years, if I played this system, I'd only bet the faves and over parlay.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll

Ordinaryday6

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2013

Posts: 190

Posted: Aug. 14, 2014 - 4:50 AM ET #19

awesome. i'm so ready for football.

Ordinaryday6

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2013

Posts: 190

Posted: Aug. 14, 2014 - 4:51 AM ET #20

that post was supposed to include a "thanks again for backtesting, Dan." lol

traderjoe13

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 696

Posted: Aug. 15, 2014 - 3:54 PM ET #21

Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

2010 season:
Betting both: $4400

Faves/Over: $4900
Dogs/Under: Lost $500
4 year results:
Betting both: $12,630
Faves/Over: $15,590
Dogs/Under: Lost $2,960
Given that betting on the dogs and under lost money each of the last 4 years, if I played this system, I'd only bet the faves and over parlay.

Dan do you use any systems in college football?

Danrules24

Captain

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 5921

Posted: Aug. 15, 2014 - 5:42 PM ET #22

Quote Originally Posted by traderjoe13:

Dan do you use any systems in college football?

I cannot handicap a football game, pro or college, if my life depended on it. I tend to stay away from betting on football exept when Gratefulbets produces hi college bowl picks.

That being said, I just did 5 years of backtesting on this system so it would almost be criminal not to put that to good use. What I'm going to do is start with $1000 and flat bet $25 per parlay (2.5%) on the fave and over as described above and adjust the amount for each week.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll

traderjoe13

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 696

Posted: Aug. 16, 2014 - 3:44 PM ET #23

Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Quote Originally Posted by traderjoe13:

Dan do you use any systems in college football?

I cannot handicap a football game, pro or college, if my life depended on it. I tend to stay away from betting on football exept when Gratefulbets produces hi college bowl picks.
That being said, I just did 5 years of backtesting on this system so it would almost be criminal not to put that to good use. What I'm going to do is start with $1000 and flat bet $25 per parlay (2.5%) on the fave and over as described above and adjust the amount for each week.

Im with you dan. I got 16 games for week 1 feel free to see if i missed any games

Byu-17 over 50.5
Zona-24 over 60
Michigan -35 over50.5
Ucla -22 over 59.5
Nc state -23 ovee 53
Brasky -22 ovee51
Marshal -24 ovee60
Domers -21 over 52
Bama -26 over55
Auburn-19 over55
FloridA-35 over 51.5
Oklahoma -38 over52
Usc-21 over57.5
Miss state -31 over55
Texasb-24 over50.5
Baylor -33 over74.5

Danrules24

Captain

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 5921

Posted: Aug. 16, 2014 - 4:09 PM ET #24

Joe, what book are you using? I will wait until much closer to actual kick-off to do any bets. The lines I see at Cantor are pretty close to what you show, except no line for Notre Dame yet.

Once all the books have their lines I will line shop each game. Most do not have totals yet.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll

traderjoe13

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 696

Posted: Aug. 16, 2014 - 6:20 PM ET #25

I actually just took those lines all from covers I use bookmaker and 5dimes but totals aren't up yet on all games so I will wait till game week also.

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