For Fun - Anything but favorite win by 1 run chase

So..inspired by Supereagles martingale chase, and looking for a little fun .. I have set aside $500 for my own all or nothing chase..  but a little different. I am sure you have all heard of  betting both sides of a game, on the Dog  and the Favorite -1.5 at plus money so that the only losing outcome is a fave win by exactly one run.. over the season its a losing bet.. but i am gonna chase this hoping that for the rest of the season i can avoid 2 losses in a row ( that is avoid picking 2 games in a row where the fave wins by exactly one run).. the plan is to divide the roll by 10  ..and that equals the total amount of my 1st bet  (i.e 5% per side) ..if the 1st bet loses.. double down the rest of the roll on the 2nd..  so its simple..avoid 1 run games !!!

If i can make it to the end of the year.. increasing my roll on avg 2% per day ..my $500 will be almost 10k ..  so basically i am betting $500 at 20-1 that i can do this ..suckerbet ? ..we'll see

so ...lets get it on

starting roll $500

7pm bet     Pirates  +113     $25 to win $53.25

                Brewers -1.5   +123     $25 to win  $55.75

If this game is done in time my 2nd bet will be the  Yanks/Oakland game..

4/21/2010 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 905 Milwaukee Brewers* -1½ +125 vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Y Gallardo - R Listed   Z Duke - L Listed
Risking $25.00 To Win $31.25

4/21/2010 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 906 Pittsburgh Pirates* +118 vs Milwaukee Brewers
Y Gallardo - R Listed   Z Duke - L Listed
Risking $25.00 To Win $29.50

not being a smart ass, but how do you get $25 wins $55 + ???

rizz..about 15% of the time the fave wins by 1 run ..

assuming milwuakee doesnt score 6 in the last 2 innings..looks like 1-0

next play tonite gonna be

Baltimore +170   25.28 to win 40.26

Seattle - 1.5  +110  25.28 to win 28.09

ya i meant Pitt .. rizz .. simple query on sportsdatabase  ..done it all the way back to 2004.. always in the 85% range

Hectar  . not playing full series.. just tryin to pick my spots..

Okay,

Ran the numbers for 2009.  330 games the favored team won by 1 run out of around 2350 games = 14%.  The odds of picking two games in a row is 1.97%

sounds good to me !  ..

I have an opening game favorite chase where we chase based on opening odds > -145.  Here are the numbers for 2009.

ML = 178-75,   RL = 140-113, so in 38 of these games the favorite would win by 1 run.  30/253 games lose = 11.9 %.  Odds of losing two in a row = 1.4%.  You may want to stick to these kinds of plays.

I get that percentage by taking the chance to lose one game 11.9% and multiplying it by the chance to lose another game.

.119 x .119 = .014.

So you have about 49:1 to not hit the landmine!  This should be interesting...  You are going to make two plays per day??

most days..somedays 3 ...there may be no plays somedays.. depending on the lines,, has to be + money on both sides...generally my strategy is to try and pick home dogs as much as possible.. (should narrow down the 1 run games).and otherwise look at the teams recent form .and get lucky !!

2-0 tonite..1 day down..149 to go..lol

starting roll = $500

current roll = $508.56

Game 1 record : 2-0

Game 2 record  0-0

looks like it will just be one game today

Cubs +137   $25.43 to win  $34.84

Mets  - 1.5  +136   $25.43 to win  $34.51

Here is an idea Neilsy.  Start with higher bet amounts to make it worth while and do a 3 game Martingale just randomly picking 1 game like this each day.  Or if there are games with staggered time slots you could get multiple games.  What would be the odds of losing taking this approach rizz?

i looked at a 3 gamer  ..but if I truly want to martingale..and using an average getting +120 on each side ..roughly you need to 10X the bet for each next level .. i.e .. to chase 3 games with $500 ..first bet total is  $5 ..2nd $50 ..and 3rd $500 .. would take a while to build a roll like this,..

also i am definetely playing multiple games per day..if the odds are there..unfortunately today both early games do not have plus odds on the ML...nor does the late one..