This in an average of 84.3% hit on A&B games combined
A) 59.7%
B) 24.6%
C) 10%
D) 4.1%
E) 1.1%
F) .4 %
Now if I'm not mistaken at a -150 average a 4 game loss is 30.20 units so if you wanted to make this a 4 game chase you would still make 381 units a season on average. Remember this chase only plays 5/6th's of the season to.
That's 76 units a month that way not bad.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hello fellow chasers and to all who want to follow, these are the results of my almost 1000 hours of going blind on my IPad creating this system.
Total for the system 3689-0 this is a 6 game chase. This an average of 738 units a season!
This in an average of 84.3% hit on A&B games combined
A) 59.7%
B) 24.6%
C) 10%
D) 4.1%
E) 1.1%
F) .4 %
Now if I'm not mistaken at a -150 average a 4 game loss is 30.20 units so if you wanted to make this a 4 game chase you would still make 381 units a season on average. Remember this chase only plays 5/6th's of the season to.
just so i understand,in the second post that is just flat betting every single play that you normally play in a chase series,but no increase ever in wager size??thanks jeff the hat
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just so i understand,in the second post that is just flat betting every single play that you normally play in a chase series,but no increase ever in wager size??thanks jeff the hat
No, it would be the same increase in bet size as the chase. I was just showing a different way of looking at it. You know you see a lot a posters saying 25 unit play 50 unit lock there is no difference persay. As you can see only 1.5% of the games went past the 4th game which at -150 odds is 30.20 units. basically what I'm saying is this is a very solid chase with small chance of going past "D" game. When 94.3% of the chases end after "C" game I think that is solid!
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No, it would be the same increase in bet size as the chase. I was just showing a different way of looking at it. You know you see a lot a posters saying 25 unit play 50 unit lock there is no difference persay. As you can see only 1.5% of the games went past the 4th game which at -150 odds is 30.20 units. basically what I'm saying is this is a very solid chase with small chance of going past "D" game. When 94.3% of the chases end after "C" game I think that is solid!
yep,agree totally...so,based on historical evidence it shud definitely be profitable to play 3 game chases???and it wud be fine start A,B,C's at the point where you are in an D,E,F phase also??assuming the hit rate is the same or better the the second half of your chases historically.....sorry,i know you have the numbers rite there,im just crappy with digits and math...thank you
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yep,agree totally...so,based on historical evidence it shud definitely be profitable to play 3 game chases???and it wud be fine start A,B,C's at the point where you are in an D,E,F phase also??assuming the hit rate is the same or better the the second half of your chases historically.....sorry,i know you have the numbers rite there,im just crappy with digits and math...thank you
Jeff, you willing to give us something, anything, any kind of basic info about this? Or if I were to PM you, would you possibly be willing to explain it to me? If it is about confidentiality, I wouldn't go around spreading it by any means, as if it is what you say it is, then in reality I want as few people knowing about it as possible. Keep it in the family, keep it in just this covers forum.
Been trying myself to come up with something as fool proof as this, and although I have gotten close, nothing has come up with numbers quite as astounding as what you have shared. Much respect for the time and effort you must have put into backtesting! Believe me I did it for 9 years for something else I came up with, that had much fewer chases, and it took me nearly a month. I'm guessing this must have taken you an unfathomable amount of time.
Anyways, looking forward to your response, and I'd love to help you with possible backtesting if my services could be used in this manner, as until baseball season starts up, and actually until the summer, I currently have a lot of free time on my hands. Also, for some reason, must be a sickness, but I actually enjoy pouring through numbers to prove something this ground breaking.
Thanks either way in advance
Brian
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Jeff, you willing to give us something, anything, any kind of basic info about this? Or if I were to PM you, would you possibly be willing to explain it to me? If it is about confidentiality, I wouldn't go around spreading it by any means, as if it is what you say it is, then in reality I want as few people knowing about it as possible. Keep it in the family, keep it in just this covers forum.
Been trying myself to come up with something as fool proof as this, and although I have gotten close, nothing has come up with numbers quite as astounding as what you have shared. Much respect for the time and effort you must have put into backtesting! Believe me I did it for 9 years for something else I came up with, that had much fewer chases, and it took me nearly a month. I'm guessing this must have taken you an unfathomable amount of time.
Anyways, looking forward to your response, and I'd love to help you with possible backtesting if my services could be used in this manner, as until baseball season starts up, and actually until the summer, I currently have a lot of free time on my hands. Also, for some reason, must be a sickness, but I actually enjoy pouring through numbers to prove something this ground breaking.
What about if u chase first 3 games and the start another 3 game chase to game 6. It would cut potential loss in a 6 game chase. Does anyone know if such a system would work? All these numbers just mess my head :)
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What about if u chase first 3 games and the start another 3 game chase to game 6. It would cut potential loss in a 6 game chase. Does anyone know if such a system would work? All these numbers just mess my head :)
Jeff does this system go into September, or does it end at the end of August? Just curious. On a separate note trying to figure out a way to have separate labby lines going with this since it seems we will have 5+ chases going at once.
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Jeff does this system go into September, or does it end at the end of August? Just curious. On a separate note trying to figure out a way to have separate labby lines going with this since it seems we will have 5+ chases going at once.
Jeff does this system go into September, or does it end at the end of August? Just curious. On a separate note trying to figure out a way to have separate labby lines going with this since it seems we will have 5+ chases going at once.
I backtested stopping when there was only 3 series left in the season. Gets ugly about then!
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Quote Originally Posted by stickbit:
Jeff does this system go into September, or does it end at the end of August? Just curious. On a separate note trying to figure out a way to have separate labby lines going with this since it seems we will have 5+ chases going at once.
I backtested stopping when there was only 3 series left in the season. Gets ugly about then!
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