Does anyone know where I can find winning percentages based on point spreads? Meaning how often -2 favs or -4 favs, -6 favs, etc, win? The reason that I ask is because I have been doing very well this college basketball season playing two-team ML parlays using favs. I began pairing up -12 favs or higher but the juice was so high that I began looking for -9 to -10 favs only. I chase the parlays until I win, which hasn't gone past a C game. I am wondering, though, if I am playing too high of favorites. I hope that I am explaining it clearly. Any idea where I can find that type of info? I would like to find the info for all sports, but CBB would be a great start. Thanks in advance.
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Does anyone know where I can find winning percentages based on point spreads? Meaning how often -2 favs or -4 favs, -6 favs, etc, win? The reason that I ask is because I have been doing very well this college basketball season playing two-team ML parlays using favs. I began pairing up -12 favs or higher but the juice was so high that I began looking for -9 to -10 favs only. I chase the parlays until I win, which hasn't gone past a C game. I am wondering, though, if I am playing too high of favorites. I hope that I am explaining it clearly. Any idea where I can find that type of info? I would like to find the info for all sports, but CBB would be a great start. Thanks in advance.
Hey Kaba, I found a great website with sports statistics from another post on this forum, killersports.com and also sportsdatabase.com, I think they use the same database. Its a bit difficult to input the query info but if you read the pdf manuals for whichever sport you want you should be able to pick it up, it helps if you know a little bit about databases and querying. I'm still figuring out the sites and tinkering around with it, like how to show more than 50 results in a query result and also if the data is able to be extracted for download. I'm not sure what you get for registering so I might do that. I hope you will be able to post your system and picks, Good luck!
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Hey Kaba, I found a great website with sports statistics from another post on this forum, killersports.com and also sportsdatabase.com, I think they use the same database. Its a bit difficult to input the query info but if you read the pdf manuals for whichever sport you want you should be able to pick it up, it helps if you know a little bit about databases and querying. I'm still figuring out the sites and tinkering around with it, like how to show more than 50 results in a query result and also if the data is able to be extracted for download. I'm not sure what you get for registering so I might do that. I hope you will be able to post your system and picks, Good luck!
hi Kababayan, Dragonbets is definitely right about sportsdatabase/killersports being your best bet. i learned how to use it about a years ago and now i use it religiously. just to get you started, because i employ a system using this info as well:
take the time period you want to see + the spread you want to look at + whichever other parameters you want to use. for instance,
season>=2011 (or season=2014, etc) and line=-10 and AF (or HF or no other parameter)
it will give you the ML WP, but it won't give you the ML odds.
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hi Kababayan, Dragonbets is definitely right about sportsdatabase/killersports being your best bet. i learned how to use it about a years ago and now i use it religiously. just to get you started, because i employ a system using this info as well:
take the time period you want to see + the spread you want to look at + whichever other parameters you want to use. for instance,
season>=2011 (or season=2014, etc) and line=-10 and AF (or HF or no other parameter)
it will give you the ML WP, but it won't give you the ML odds.
Thank you both for your help. I greatly appreciate it. I'll post my findings. My goal is to find that "sweet spot" of a high winning % with not too high of juice. I began parlaying -1100+ favs but the occasional losses became to much to chase, so I am focusing on the -450 to -550 range. I try to only lay 2.5-1 unit to win ratio. That way it is low enough for me to comfortably chase. I am up close to 100 units in three months, but I am wagering a very small amount per unit size. Thanks again.
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Thank you both for your help. I greatly appreciate it. I'll post my findings. My goal is to find that "sweet spot" of a high winning % with not too high of juice. I began parlaying -1100+ favs but the occasional losses became to much to chase, so I am focusing on the -450 to -550 range. I try to only lay 2.5-1 unit to win ratio. That way it is low enough for me to comfortably chase. I am up close to 100 units in three months, but I am wagering a very small amount per unit size. Thanks again.
As I reread my post I did make it seem as though it was mostly cbb, but it was actually a mix of whatever I could find with high money lines (soccer, cricket, boxing, cbb.) I started just wagering on any high ML but soon realized that it wasn't the most efficient, as high ML teams will still lose (especially soccer and boxing). My worst wager was to bet 65 units to win 15 and it lost. I saw that I was winning 3 out of 4 parlays, but that 1 loss took out all of the winnings, so I set some parameters for myself. 1) I only wager to win one unit. That way I am putting equal importance on every parlay. 2) I bet two-team parlays, with an occasional three team. No more 7 team -3500 ML parlays. 3) I only wager 2.5 max to win 1 unit. That way I don't have to put up too many units to chase a win. 4) My goal is to win 1 unit a day. 5) I am only wagering to win .25% of my bankroll. That way I don't stress while chasing. I don't always follow my own rules, as I just lost a 4 unit parlay.
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As I reread my post I did make it seem as though it was mostly cbb, but it was actually a mix of whatever I could find with high money lines (soccer, cricket, boxing, cbb.) I started just wagering on any high ML but soon realized that it wasn't the most efficient, as high ML teams will still lose (especially soccer and boxing). My worst wager was to bet 65 units to win 15 and it lost. I saw that I was winning 3 out of 4 parlays, but that 1 loss took out all of the winnings, so I set some parameters for myself. 1) I only wager to win one unit. That way I am putting equal importance on every parlay. 2) I bet two-team parlays, with an occasional three team. No more 7 team -3500 ML parlays. 3) I only wager 2.5 max to win 1 unit. That way I don't have to put up too many units to chase a win. 4) My goal is to win 1 unit a day. 5) I am only wagering to win .25% of my bankroll. That way I don't stress while chasing. I don't always follow my own rules, as I just lost a 4 unit parlay.
A big thank you to Ordinaryday6 for giving me the formula to type into killersports. It saved me a lot of much time. Thanks again to Dragonbets for steering me to killersports. Below is the info that I found. To me, the sweet spot seems to be -8 to -10. The winning percentage is higher with the -11+ range, but the cost is so much more and make it more difficult to chase. I began parlaying high money teams, but when they did lose, it made it too high of a cost to chase the loss. Parlaying two teams in the -8 to -10 range means a bet of 1.50 to 1 to 2.75 to 1, depending on what your book has as the moneyline for those ranges. I am going by memory with those numbers, and can give some exact numbers when I research them more. Also, I'll give you my exact parlay record for this season when I have the time to go back and calculate. Below is the SU winning percentage based on the spread:
A big thank you to Ordinaryday6 for giving me the formula to type into killersports. It saved me a lot of much time. Thanks again to Dragonbets for steering me to killersports. Below is the info that I found. To me, the sweet spot seems to be -8 to -10. The winning percentage is higher with the -11+ range, but the cost is so much more and make it more difficult to chase. I began parlaying high money teams, but when they did lose, it made it too high of a cost to chase the loss. Parlaying two teams in the -8 to -10 range means a bet of 1.50 to 1 to 2.75 to 1, depending on what your book has as the moneyline for those ranges. I am going by memory with those numbers, and can give some exact numbers when I research them more. Also, I'll give you my exact parlay record for this season when I have the time to go back and calculate. Below is the SU winning percentage based on the spread:
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