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Here's an Idea

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
Okay great.  So just flip the positions of those two constants to end up with this:
 
(((((OBP*SLG) * 0.568) + (TAv * 0.615)) * 100) / (HITS/RUNS)
 
?
 
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Posted: #27
Parlay:
CHN/PHI U8.5 (-125)  UNDER
COL/SFN O7 (-115)  OVER

1 to win 2.37

YTD 3-2 (5-4-1) +5.30 Units

Going forward I will be incorporating starting pitcher data into the numbers. It shouldn't be too different, today it gave the same 2 plays.
 
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Posted: #28
June 14

Tampa Bay / Houston U8
C. Archer/J. Cosart

Combined - 31.36
Total - 8

122.90


Texas / Seattle O7.5
J. Saunders/E. Ramirez

Combined - 39.20
Total - 7.5

204.85


Parlay:
TBA/HOU U8 (-125)
TEX/SEA O7.5 (-110)

1 to win 2.44

YTD 3-2 (5-4-1) +5.30 Units

Be sure to play listed pitchers rather than action, if you're following.
 
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Posted: #29
The games are correct but the numbers are wrong.

Should be 122.91 and 202.08
 
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Posted: #30
Parlay:
TBA/HOU U8 (-125)  OVER
TEX/SEA O7.5 (-110)  UNDER

1 to win 2.44

YTD 3-3 (5-6-1) +4.30 Units
 
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Posts: 823
Posted: #31
June 15

Cleveland / Boston U8.5

Combined - 30.73
Total - 8.5

111.11


Colorado / San Francisco O7

Combined - 40.06
Total - 7

229.23


Parlay:
CLE/BOS U8.5 (+100)
COL/SFN O7 (-115)

1 to win 2.74

YTD 3-3 (5-6-1) +4.30 Units
 
Rookie
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Posted: #32
Parlay:
CLE/BOS U8.5 (+100)  UNDER
COL/SFN O7 (-115)  OVER

1 to win 2.74

YTD 4-3 (7-6-1) +7.04 Units
 
Rookie
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Posted: #33
Parlay:
CLE/BOS U8.5 (+100)  UNDER
COL/SFN O7 (-115)  OVER

1 to win 2.74

YTD 4-3 (7-6-1) +7.04 Units
 
Prospect
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Posts: 458
Posted: #34
Tailed you on this. Thanks and keep up
 
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Posted: #35
June 16

Philadelphia / Atlanta U6.5
C. Hamels / J. Teheran

Combined - 28.13
Total - 6.5

121.71


Texas / Oakland O7.5
C. Lewis / D. Pomeranz

Combined - 36.95
Total - 7.5

182.04


Parlay:
PHI/ATL U6.5 (-105)
TEX/OAK O7.5 (-115)

1 to win 2.65

YTD 4-3 (7-6-1) +7.04 Units
 
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Posted: #36
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ApLP376rI_G-dHFscThWbndUWHhCOXdjMGFIZ2VKekE&usp=sharing
 
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Posted: #37
Parlay:
PHI/ATL U6.5 (-105)  OVER
TEX/OAK O7.5 (-115)  OVER

1 to win 2.65

YTD 4-4 (8-7-1) +6.04 Units

For record keeping purposes of course Philadelphia and Atlanta is a loss. But as far as I'm concerned 12 innings with 2 runs scored is good enough to cash a ticket. Definitely on the right side in both these games.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 190
Posted: #38
Of course, the Phillies had to score those runs today, and not yesterday when we bet them and my parents were at the game... ridiculous. This system is going well tho, good work.
 
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Posted: #39
What do you think the line would have been on Under 6.5 if you were live betting that game when the bottom of the 9th started? Like -25000? Anyway, we move on.

June 17

New York / St. Louis U7.5

Combined - 27.61
Total - 7.5

101.66


Colorado / Los Angeles O7

Combined - 36.26
Total - 7

187.80


Parlay:
NYN/SLN U7.5 (-120)
COL/LAN O7 (+110)

1 to win 2.85

YTD 4-4 (8-7-1) +6.04 Units
 
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Posted: #40
Parlay:
NYN/SLN U7.5 (-120)  UNDER
COL/LAN O7 (+110)  UNDER

1 to win 2.85

YTD 4-5 (9-8-1) +5.04 Units
 
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Posted: #41
June 18

Toronto / New York U9

Combined - 29.58
Total - 9

97.20


Colorado / Los Angeles O6.5

Combined - 35.92
Total - 6.5

198.47


Parlay:
TOR/NYA U9 (-115)
COL/LAN O6.5 (+100)

1 to win 2.74

YTD 4-5 (9-8-1) +5.04 Units
 
Prospect
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Posts: 142
Posted: #42
I am trying to reproduce your results...
if this is your OU rating formula:
(((((OBP*SLG) * 0.568) + (TAv * 0.615)) * 100) / (HITS/RUNS)

then

COL is 13.22 and LAD 11.74 hence conbined 24.96 only
what do you calclulate for each team specifically?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by 1958a:

I am trying to reproduce your results...
if this is your OU rating formula:
(((((OBP*SLG) * 0.568) + (TAv * 0.615)) * 100) / (HITS/RUNS)

then

COL is 13.22 and LAD 11.74 hence conbined 24.96 only
what do you calclulate for each team specifically?

1958a,

BCap started calculating an OU Rating for each pitcher and adds that to the team OU Rating.  After that, the Team OU ratings are added together and that result is squared.  That result is then divided by the Total.

Canis

 
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Posted: #44
The pitcher rating is their ((OBP*SLG)*100)/(H/R)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #45

I believe these to be the correct calculations:

Data Needed - Team Batting - Standard

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1657913

Team OU Rating = (((((OBP*SLG)*0.568)+(TAv*0.615))*100)/(H/R))

Data Needed - Pitcher Season - Standard

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1657924

pOBP = (H+UBB+HBP)/(AB+UBB+HBP+SF)

pSLG = TB/AB

Pitcher OU Rating = ((pOBP*pSLG)*100)/(H/R)

===========

Away OU Rating = Away Team OU Rating + Away Pitcher OU Rating
Home OU Rating = Home Team OU Rating + Home Pitcher OU Rating

OU Total = (Away OU Rating + Home OU Rating)^2

OU Score = OU Total / Total

What BCap calls 'Combined' is the sum of Away OU Rating + Home OU Rating before it is squared.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #46
Thank you very much for the info.  If I understand correctly, team hitting ability and pitcher's ability are equally weighted?

If  this is what you apply with these formulas, you may need to consider putting a coefficient for pitchers.... I think lines are mostly determined by pitching quality

Regards
 
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Posted: #47
Parlay:
TOR/NYA U9 (-115)  OVER
COL/LAN O6.5 (+100)  OVER

1 to win 2.74

YTD 4-6 (10-9-1) +4.04 Units

Another 1-run loser. 1-4 since using starting pitcher numbers.
 
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Posted: #48
June 19

Kansas City / Detroit U8
D. Duffy / A. Sanchez

Combined - 29.67
Total - 8

110.03


Los Angeles / Cleveland O8.5
C. Wilson / J. Masterson

Combined - 38.94
Total - 8.5

178.40


Parlay:
KCA/DET U8 (-115)
ANA/CLE O8.5 (-110)

1 to win 2.57

YTD 4-6 (10-9-1) +4.04 Units

1958- I'm going to work on it to figure out how much the pitcher numbers should account for. I'm also keeping a running count of what the OU Scores were for winners and losers. As you would expect the average losing Under has a higher OU Score than the average winning Under and same way with winning Overs being higher than losing ones. I'm trying to come up with a benchmark that if a game is above a certain OU Score it gets bet over and same with the Unders, rather than just picking the high and low.
 
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Posted: #49
Parlay:
KCA/DET U8 (-115)  UNDER
ANA/CLE O8.5 (-110)  UNDER

1 to win 2.57

YTD 4-7 (11-10-1) +3.04 Units

Close again.. However, the 178.40 for Cleveland/LA is too low to play an over on anyway.
 
 
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Posted: #50
June 20

Texas / Los Angeles U8

Combined - 32.28
Total - 8

130.28


Chicago / Minnesota O9

Combined - 42.11
Total - 9


197.04


Parlay:
TEX/ANA U8 (+110)
CHA/MIN O9 (+100)

1 to win 3.20

YTD 4-7 (11-10-1) +3.04 Units
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