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Here's an Idea

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Posted: #51
Parlay:
TEX/ANA U8 (+110)  OVER
CHA/MIN O9 (+100)  PUSH

1 to win 3.20

YTD 4-8 (11-11-2) +2.04 Units

I'm giving the pitching numbers 2 more chances.
 
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Posted: #52
June 21

Philadelphia / St. Louis U6.5

Combined - 26.65
Total - 6.5

109.25


Chicago / Minnesota O9

Combined - 41.66
Total - 9

192.88


Parlay:
PHI/SLN U6.5 (-110)
CHA/MIN O9 (-120)

1 to win 2.50

YTD 4-8 (11-11-2) +2.04 Units
 
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Posted: #53
Cap,
incorporate Starting Pitcher's hit/run data per opposing team lineup for the first five innings (thereby eliminating bullpens which are nearly indeterminate).
Incorporating O/U nine-game trends, where momentum - incl. hitting streaks, two-out-RBIs, series wins and W/L - function as artificial variables, rather than weighting coefficients, makes for a more robust function.

Exceeds expectations any of us might have had herein.
 
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Posted: #54
Pendo,

Love all those suggestions, I simply don't have the time to dive that deep into this, as it's not looking like it's going to maintain the early profits anyway.

Since I haven't seen any streaks so far I'm going to go ahead and make this a 3 game chase on each the over and the under, sticking with the starting pitcher numbers. But I'm only going to play the lowest OU Score for the day IF it is lower than 115. and I'm only going to play the highest OU score IF it is higher than 190.

After today's loser I'm pocketing my 1 Unit and wiping clean. This is simply for "fun" for lack of a better term, not expecting to strike gold.

I'm starting with 50 Units and the A bet for each chase will be to win 1 unit. So assuming -110 odds on the total, one 3 game losing streak would cost 8.26 Units (I think).

1.10 to win 1

2.31 to win 2.10

4.84 to win 4.41

If you're following, good luck and don't risk any more than spare change. That's all I'm betting on it. Let's see how long this lasts..
 
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Posted: #55
OU Chase

OA -

OB -

OC -


UA - Milwaukee / Colorado U10.5 (-105)

UB -

UC -


Milwaukee / Colorado U10.5
K. Lohse / T. Matzek

Milwaukee:

Offense - 16.75
K. Lohse - 4.39

Colorado:

Offense - 17.06
T. Matzek - 4.08

OU Score - 108.90

No games fit the over bill.
 
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Posted: #56
OU Chase

OA - 0-0 -

OB - 0-0 -

OC - 0-0 -


UA - 0-1 - Milwaukee / Colorado U10.5 (-105)

UB - 0-0 -

UC - 0-0 -
 
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Posted: #57
No games today.
 
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Posted: #58

BCap,

I'm sorry that I have not been archiving the daily data used to calculate the plays but on the chance that you have, I am wondering if we went back to the roots of the system, including using the pitcher data and dropped the squaring of the OU Total and dropped dividing the OU Score by the Total, and did the two seperate chases, where we would be.

Thoughts?

If you happen to have the data, I would be happy to research it.

Canis.

 
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Posted: #59
I haven't been saving it either. Just update the games each day.
 
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Posted: #60
OU Chase

OA - 0-0 -

OB - 0-0 -

OC - 0-0 -


UA - 0-1 - Milwaukee / Colorado U10.5 (-105)  -1.05

UB - 0-0 - San Diego / San Francisco U7 (-115) 2.36 to win 2.05

UC - 0-0 -

San Diego / San Francisco U7
J. Hahn / T. Hudson

San Diego:

Offense - 8.44
J. Hahn - 3.46

San Francisco:

Offense - 11.74
T. Hudson - 3.31

OU Score - 103.77
 
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Posted: #61
Ooops Cards at Rockies. 
 
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Posted: #62
Pardon?
 
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Posted: #63
OU Chase

OA - 0-0 -

OB - 0-0 -

OC - 0-0 -


UA - 0-1 - Milwaukee / Colorado U10.5 (-105)  -1.05

UB - 0-1 - San Diego / San Francisco U7 (-115)  -2.36

UC - 0-0 -
 
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Posted: #64
OU Chase

OA - 0-0 - Oakland / New York O7.5 (-115) 1.15 to win 1

OB - 0-0 -

OC - 0-0 -


UA - 0-1 - Milwaukee / Colorado U10.5 (-105)  -1.05

UB - 0-1 - San Diego / San Francisco U7 (-115)  -2.36

UC - 0-0 - Atlanta / Houston U8 (-110) 4.85 to win 4.41

Oakland / New York U7.5
B. Mills / Z. Wheeler

Oakland:

Offense - 14.22
B. Mills - 9.00

New York:

Offense - 10.94
Z. Wheeler - 5.92

OU Score - 214.10


Atlanta / Houston U8
A. Wood / C. McHugh

Atlanta:

Offense - 9.56
A. Wood - 4.66

Houston:

Offense - 10.68
C. McHugh - 4.38

OU Score - 107.18
 
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Posted: #65
OU Chase - 2-0 +2.00 Units

Overs - 1-0 +1.00 Unit

OA - 1-0 - Oakland / New York O7.5 (-115) 1.15 to win 1

OB - 0-0 -

OC - 0-0 -


Unders - 1-0 +1.00 Unit

UA - 0-1 - Milwaukee / Colorado U10.5 (-105)  -1.05

UB - 0-1 - San Diego / San Francisco U7 (-115)  -2.36

UC - 1-0 - Atlanta / Houston U8 (-110) 4.85 to win 4.41
 
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Posted: #66
OU Chase - 2-0 +2.00 Units

Overs - 1-0 +1.00 Unit

OA - 1-0 -

OB - 0-0 -

OC - 0-0 -


Unders - 1-0 +1.00 Unit

UA - 0-1 - New York / Pittsburgh U8 (+100) 1 to win 1

UB - 0-1 -

UC - 1-0 -

New York / Pittsburgh U8
D. Matsuzaka / V. Worley

New York:

Offense - 10.95
D. Matsuzaka - 5.09

Pittsburgh:

Offense - 11.08
V. Worley - 1.99

OU Score - 105.94
 
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Posted: #67
OU Chase - 3-0 +3.00 Units

Overs - 1-0 +1.00 Unit

OA - 1-0 -

OB - 0-0 -

OC - 0-0 -


Unders - 2-0 +2.00 Unit

UA - 1-1 - New York / Pittsburgh U8 (+100) 1 to win 1

UB - 0-1 -

UC - 1-0 -
 
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Posted: #68

A better turn of events the last few days Cap.  Good job.

The COL/MIL Over would be a push, worst case, with two innings to go.

I figure you dropped it due to the unusually high score of the COL starting pitcher.  Do you have any parameters for when OU Scores should be dropped from consideration?  Higher than 190 but less than ???

Thanks again for all the work!

 
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Posted: #69
Thanks. Yeah I threw that out because of Friedrich and because for some reason Peralta's stats didn't even show up. But I figure if it's higher than 300 like that one was there's probably something funny going on.

OU Chase - 3-0 +3.00 Units

Overs - 1-0 +1.00 Unit

OA - 1-0 - Oakland / Miami O8 (-121) 1.21 to win 1

OB - 0-0 -

OC - 0-0 -


Unders - 2-0 +2.00 Unit

UA - 1-1 - Washington / Chicago U7.5 (120) 1.20 to win 1

UB - 0-1 -

UC - 1-0 -

Oakland / Miami U8
J. Chavez / A. Desclafani

Oakland:

Offense - 14.33
J. Chavez - 4.20

Miami:

Offense - 11.59
A. Desclafani - 13.03

OU Score - 232.79

Washington / Chicago U7.5
T. Roark / J. Hammel

Washington:

Offense - 10.90
T. Roark - 3.61

Chicago:

Offense - 10.65
J. Hammel - 3.79

OU Score - 111.80
 
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Posted: #70
OU Chase - 4-0 +4.00 Units

Overs - 2-0 +2.00 Unit

OA - 2-0 - Oakland / Miami O8 (-121) 1.21 to win 1

OB - 0-0 -

OC - 0-0 -


Unders - 2-0 +2.00 Unit

UA - 1-2 - Washington / Chicago U7.5 (-120) 1.20 to win 1  -1.20

UB - 0-1 -

UC - 1-0 -
 
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Posted: #71
OU Chase - 4-0 +4.00 Units

Overs - 2-0 +2.00 Unit

OA - 2-0 -

OB - 0-0 -

OC - 0-0 -


Unders - 2-0 +2.00 Unit

UA - 1-2 - Washington / Chicago U7.5 (-120) 1.20 to win 1  -1.20

UB - 0-1 - Washington / Chicago U8.5 (-120) 2.64 to win 2.20

UC - 1-0 -

Washington / Chicago U8.5
B. Treinen / J. Samardzija

Washington:

Offense - 10.84
B. Treinen - 3.32

Chicago:

Offense - 10.73
J. Samardzija - 4.29

OU Score - 100.16



Canis,

What do you think if I lower or raise the threshold for OU Scores as a chase goes on? Like for a B game to be an under play it has to be lower than 105 instead of 115. Or over 200 rather than 190. Then maybe 100 and 205 for a C game. Just a thought..
 
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Posted: #72

Cap,

That's your call but I would think there could be several days between games since the qualification gets tighter.  I personally would leave it as is.

Also note, that today's WAS/CHC play is in game #2 of the double-header.

 
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Posted: #73
OU Chase - 4-0 +4.00 Units

Overs - 2-0 +2.00 Unit

OA - 2-0 -

OB - 0-0 -

OC - 0-0 -


Unders - 2-0 +2.00 Unit

UA - 1-2 - Washington / Chicago U7.5 (-120) 1.20 to win 1  -1.20

UB - 0-2 - Washington / Chicago U8.5 (-120) 2.64 to win 2.20  -2.64

UC - 1-0 -
 
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Posted: #74
OU Chase - 4-0 +4.00 Units

Overs - 2-0 +2.00 Unit

OA - 2-0 - Oakland / Miami O7.5 (-115)  1.15 to win 1

OB - 0-0 -

OC - 0-0 -


Unders - 2-0 +2.00 Unit

UA - 1-2 - Washington / Chicago U7.5 (-120) 1.20 to win 1  -1.20

UB - 0-2 - Washington / Chicago U8.5 (-120) 2.64 to win 2.20  -2.64

UC - 1-0 - Boston / New York U8.5 (-115) 5.57 to win 4.84


Oakland / Miami O7.5
T. Milone / A. Heaney

Oakland:

Offense - 14.31
T. Milone - 6.06

Miami:

Offense - 11.52
A. Heaney - 9.12

OU Score - 224.33

Boston / New York U8.5
J. Lackey / C. Whitley

Boston:

Offense - 9.98
J. Lackey - 4.71

New York:

Offense - 10.45
C. Whitley - 5.04

OU Score - 107.10
 
 
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Posted: #75
OU Chase - 4-0 -3.41 Units

Overs - 2-0 +2.00 Unit

OA - 2-1 - Oakland / Miami O7.5 (-115)  -1.15

OB - 0-0 -

OC - 0-0 -


Unders - 2-1 -7.41 Units

UA - 1-2 - Washington / Chicago U7.5 (-120) -1.20

UB - 0-2 - Washington / Chicago U8.5 (-120) -2.64

UC - 1-1 - Boston / New York U8.5 (-115) -5.57
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