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I know it's probably a little bit late for this, but I'm brainstorming for some ideas for a 2-team parlay chase using the RRL(-1.5).
After doing quite a bit of research, and with the help of sabermetrics(BsR, specifically), there is a strong correlation between a team's run differential and their production of 2+ run wins. The FanGraphs 2014 BsR projections accurately predicted 12 out of the 14 teams that would finish the season with a positive run differential. That being said, some teams are better at winning by 2 than others. Since I can't seem to paste it, the percentages of 2+ run wins(out of overall wins) from last year can be found here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BgOU2E8Pkctm0TFv1ZWJVpygrstwa-2h0JChlL9d-cs/edit?usp=sharing
Now, as the season progresses, FanGraphs updates their projections daily, based on a team's performance. This obviously is a tremendous help in zeroing in on the team's one is trying to bet on in the hopes of covering the RRL.
Using DanRules' 2-team parlay system that has been applied to the MLB and NHL for road dogs, I am trying to figure out a wise way of perhaps utilizing the system to chase a 2-team parlay of 2 teams likely to win by 2 on that given day.
No, I don't think it's a crapshoot- if you break down each team's 2+ run wins, about 5-25% are won when the team is the underdog on the road, and approximately 75% are won as a favorite, with the home favorite category slightly edging out the road favorite. Virtually none of a team's 2-run wins come as a home underdog, so that play can be eliminated automatically.
And one more little snippet of information- while chasing these teams straight for 8 games wouldn't work out(because at some point, the odds wouldn't be good enough to cover losses if the streak gets longer than 3-4 games), I did run the info on about half of these teams and NONE of them went 8 games in a row as a favorite without winning by 2 after May 1st(don't want to start the system until then to give time for data collection and more accurate projections).
Given this information, anyone have any ideas for a way to utilize the RRL? Doesn't have to be a parlay chase, or a chase at all. Just think there's tremendous value in the RRL knowing which teams are significantly more likely to produce more 2+ run wins than others.
Here are links for projected stats for this year. Pay attention to run differential:
Clay Davenport
FanGraphs
PECOTA
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