IRAGE ODDS BUSTER STRATEGY

Is that ERA? or WHIP? or something else?

So if Pitcher A (dog) ERA 4.6

Pitcher B (fav) ERA 3.1

Take the dog?

Hey guys - so I was messing around on the killersports.com query engine and ran Irage's system through the DB

USING NO FILTERS - just bet the DOG if both lines are -110 or less

SQDL Query
t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and season = 2009

2009 SU: 208-232 (-0.1 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: -$2,865 / +$785 ROI: -6.4% / +1.7%
2010 SU: 184-171 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$850 / -$2,688 ROI: +2.3% / -
2011 SU: 228-223 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: -$105 / -$2,157 ROI: -0.2% / -4.5%
2012 SU: 112-90 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -108 on / against: +$1,965 / -$3,034 ROI: +9.5% / -14.0%

So it got crushed in 2009.  2010 was ok. 2011 slight loser.  But is kicking ass in 2012

Now add the DOG's starting pitcher must have a better ERA

SQDL Query
t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and and t:STDSERA <= o:STDSERA and season = 2009

2009 SU: 105-103 (0.5 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: $0 / -$985 ROI: 0.0% / -4.4%
2010 SU: 99-78 (0.6 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$1,905 / -$2,863 ROI: +10.5% / -15.0%
2011 SU: 102-89 (0.3 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$1,055 / -$2,004 ROI: +5.4% / -9.8%
2012 SU: 54-28 (0.8 rpg) average line: -105 / -107 on / against: +$2,538 / -$2,997 ROI: +30.2% / -34.1%

This erases the losses in 2009.  2010 and 2011 look good - and still kicks ass in 2012

Now I know one of the filters is don't bet the DOG in the final game of the series if the DOG is going to sweep the series.  Now I assumed the team was a DOG thoughout the series - that probably is not the case.  BUT if you assume the team you're betting was the DOG thoughout the series then........

3rd game if DOG (team you are betting) won the first 2 games of th3 3 game series

SQDL Query

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and and t:STDSERA <= o:STDSERA and season = 2009 and p:W and pp:W and SG=3

2009 SU: 6-7 (-0.8 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: -$110 / +$50 ROI: -8.3% / +3.5
2010 SU: 7-4 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$285 / -$350 ROI: +25.1% / -29.8%
2011 SU: 7-6 (1.7 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$90 / -$155 ROI: +6.8% / -11.0%
2012 SU: 4-1 (1.0 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$295 / -$335 ROI: +57.8% / -62.0%

As you can see avoiding the 3rd game if the team you're betting won the first 2 games in the series would have avoided loses in 2009 - but you would have been positive in 2010,2011, and 2012.  Conclusion......not sure if avoiding the 3rd game filter has merit.

Keep in mind that i'm new to SQDL - so if any of you guys are masters at it - can you check my work? 

At the end of the day - it looks like Irage has a solid one here.  Again great job Irage - abnd thanks for sharing this.  I owe you big time!!!!!

The only other question - I wonder if their are any other CUT filters that would make the win rate even higher?

Hey guys - so I was messing around on the killersports.com query engine and ran Irage's system through the DB

USING NO FILTERS - just bet the DOG if both lines are -110 or less

SQDL Query
t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and season = 2009

2009 SU: 208-232 (-0.1 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: -$2,865 / +$785 ROI: -6.4% / +1.7%
2010 SU: 184-171 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$850 / -$2,688 ROI: +2.3% / -
2011 SU: 228-223 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: -$105 / -$2,157 ROI: -0.2% / -4.5%
2012 SU: 112-90 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -108 on / against: +$1,965 / -$3,034 ROI: +9.5% / -14.0%

So it got crushed in 2009.  2010 was ok. 2011 slight loser.  But is kicking ass in 2012

Now add the DOG's starting pitcher must have a better ERA

SQDL Query
t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and and t:STDSERA <= o:STDSERA and season = 2009

2009 SU: 105-103 (0.5 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: $0 / -$985 ROI: 0.0% / -4.4%
2010 SU: 99-78 (0.6 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$1,905 / -$2,863 ROI: +10.5% / -15.0%
2011 SU: 102-89 (0.3 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$1,055 / -$2,004 ROI: +5.4% / -9.8%
2012 SU: 54-28 (0.8 rpg) average line: -105 / -107 on / against: +$2,538 / -$2,997 ROI: +30.2% / -34.1%

This erases the losses in 2009.  2010 and 2011 look good - and still kicks ass in 2012

Now I know one of the filters is don't bet the DOG in the final game of the series if the DOG is going to sweep the series.  Now I assumed the team was a DOG thoughout the series - that probably is not the case.  BUT if you assume the team you're betting was the DOG thoughout the series then........

3rd game if DOG (team you are betting) won the first 2 games of th3 3 game series

SQDL Query

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line >= o:line and and t:STDSERA <= o:STDSERA and season = 2009 and p:W and pp:W and SG=3

2009 SU: 6-7 (-0.8 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: -$110 / +$50 ROI: -8.3% / +3.5
2010 SU: 7-4 (0.1 rpg) average line: -103 / -107 on / against: +$285 / -$350 ROI: +25.1% / -29.8%
2011 SU: 7-6 (1.7 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$90 / -$155 ROI: +6.8% / -11.0%
2012 SU: 4-1 (1.0 rpg) average line: -102 / -108 on / against: +$295 / -$335 ROI: +57.8% / -62.0%

As you can see avoiding the 3rd game if the team you're betting won the first 2 games in the series would have avoided loses in 2009 - but you would have been positive in 2010,2011, and 2012.  Conclusion......not sure if avoiding the 3rd game filter has merit.

Keep in mind that i'm new to SQDL - so if any of you guys are masters at it - can you check my work? 

At the end of the day - it looks like Irage has a solid one here.  Again great job Irage - abnd thanks for sharing this.  I owe you big time!!!!!

The only other question - I wonder if their are any other CUT filters that would make the win rate even higher?

Degen,

Do you plan to add the ERA factor to your spreadsheet?

So according to killersports - if you REMOVE interleague games - and use no other filters (i.e. pitching)

SQDL query

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line > o:line and C and season = 2012

2009 SU: 103-122 (-0.1 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: -$1,900 / +$870 ROI: -8.4% / +3.5%
2010 SU: 84-71 (0.2 rpg) average line: +100 / -110 on / against: +$1,300 / -$2,138 ROI: +8.4% / -12.5%
2011 SU: 106-95 (0.2 rpg) average line: -100 / -109 on / against: +$1,087 / -$2,117 ROI: +5.4% / -9.6%  
2012 SU: 58-38 (0.3 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: +$1,984 / -$2,525 ROI: +20.5% / -24.1%

So adding the interleague filter actually helps - except for 2009 which again was the year of the favorites.

It takes away some of your wins but takes away slightly more losses than wins - so brings forward a better win record.

BUT - if you look at my other post with the pitching filter - only playing dogs where the pitcher has a lower ERA - dramatically reduces the # of plays and created a losing season in 2011

t:line >=-110 and o:line>=-110 and t:line > o:line and C and t:STDSERA+1.5<= o:STDSERA and season = 2012

2011 SU: 13-19 (-1.0 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: -$613 / +$477 ROI: -19.0% / +13.6%

2012 SU: 13-7 (0.7 rpg) average line: -101 / -109 on / against: +$596 / -$719 ROI: +29.6% / -32.9%

So IF we assume the killersports data is accurate - then the interleague filter looks good - but the pitching filter - not so hot.

But keep in mind - that plays where the DOG and FAV are even are filtered out - but Irage said to take the sway team in that case.  Plus I don't know where killer sports gets their odds.....remember irage uses odds from Covers.

So this info is just an FYI - for some thought and maybe we can find additional filters that provide a better win rate.

As always - take it with a grain of salt.