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IRAGE ODDS BUSTER STRATEGY

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Posted: #176
so texas is a go or no go
 
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Posted: #177
This is why I have to wait until just before post time. Arizona was the play at just before game time. This line bounced all over the place and 15 minutes before post time D'Backs became the DOG which would have made them the play. I liked D'Backs all day and was hoping they would be the DOG.

This is another reason why this thread has some problems. I really need to be sitting at my computer just before post. For many of you that don't use an online book, you're gonna have a harder time getting the bet in.
 
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Posted: #178
Texas is NOT A GO. Angles are the DOG now, that makes them the play.
 
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Posted: #179
so your just waiting to see who the dog is, but does it matter alot tho ?

all your gonna get is value, but if you believe texas is gonna win that shouldnt texas be the play regardless.
 
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Posted: #180
It's a little more complicated than that. I have a couple of filters to make it a qualifying game. Once a game has good potential to be a play, yes I am looking for the DOG.

I got tipped off to something in the way lines are managed. Make no mistake this is LINE STRATEGY with a couple of filters applied.
 
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Posted: #181
alrite man, we are here to follow... keep it up

effing padres tho. but w/e your still posting great plays.
 
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Posted: #182

Remember this?

I think the Angels might sweep Texas even without Weaver! They are red hot and are running on all cylanders. I have followed them for more than 4 decades and this is shaping up to be one of their best runs EVER!!!

I emailed the Angels' management (in 2010!) expessing my concern. (I WAS REALLY FUCKING PISSED!!!) LOL I told them to get rid of Wood, Mathis, Abreu, Aybar AND the GM (Reagans). All are gone except for Aybar! I added the worthless piece of SHIT Wells!!! He is hurt (which really broke my fucking heart ROTF LMAO!!!) He had to have done HGH/steroids during his unusually big year br he came to the Angels.

Look what has happened!!! OMG! 9 out of 10!!! Can I call it OR WHAT!!!

 
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Posted: #183

Irage,

Thought this may help you with you odds buster strategy

 
The spreadsheet pulls today's lines from vegas insider and updates every time you push the "refresh lines" button.  It also tracks past lines from vegas insider.
 
I sent you a PM about it - check it out and get back to me.
 
Degen
 
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Posted: #184
Dude, you are a wiz with excel. That is so cool.

Have you seen this site. They have a ton of research on Baseball.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/
 
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Posted: #185
ANGELS.

Disappointed with myself.  Bought the Pads and then the line moved on me and I didn't even know.  I even waited till gametime-ish.  I think I bought like 20 mins beforehand.  Boo.
 
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Posted: #186
Irage - from what i gather the picks in this system are dogs only and uses covers lines.

Why not point out if both teams in a matchup are possible picks about 15-20 mins before. Then we can see 2/3 mins before game time on covers the lines and bet that way.
If only one team would qualify for a play just say the team and end it with 'must be dog at game time'

Today, thanks to another poster, I was very confused and almost took a couple of teams that i shouldnt have. Wanted to take hte mets as you said earlier they are the possible play. then you did not post, but someone else did and i did not make a bet.

P.S. I hope you dont go tout on us. this system seems like $. I hope it keeps up.

P.P.S You posted past results for only april 2011/12 and may 2011/12. If you get some time please some more would be great!
 
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Posted: #187
Quote Originally Posted by gbpackman:

Remember this?

I think the Angels might sweep Texas even without Weaver! They are red hot and are running on all cylanders.



I don't think angels will. i had them winning 2 outta 3 before the series started. They got the 2 now lets see for if its 3

1 more post to 555
 
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Posted: #188
Quote Originally Posted by Air1:

Irage - from what i gather the picks in this system are dogs only and uses covers lines.

Why not point out if both teams in a matchup are possible picks about 15-20 mins before. Then we can see 2/3 mins before game time on covers the lines and bet that way.
If only one team would qualify for a play just say the team and end it with 'must be dog at game time'

Today, thanks to another poster, I was very confused and almost took a couple of teams that i shouldnt have. Wanted to take hte mets as you said earlier they are the possible play. then you did not post, but someone else did and i did not make a bet.


I assume you're referring to me.  I'm trying to figure out the system lol.  Ignore my posts, although I apparently was right about STL even though they did not win.
 
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Posted: #189
Quote Originally Posted by gbpackman:

All are gone except for Aybar!


I fully understand why you hate this guy now omg make the throw to Pujols.
 
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Posted: #190
You degens... aybar was a gold glove last year. But he needs a good hitting replacement.
 
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Posted: #191
Quote Originally Posted by Air1:

Irage - from what i gather the picks in this system are dogs only and uses covers lines.

Why not point out if both teams in a matchup are possible picks about 15-20 mins before. Then we can see 2/3 mins before game time on covers the lines and bet that way.
If only one team would qualify for a play just say the team and end it with 'must be dog at game time'

Today, thanks to another poster, I was very confused and almost took a couple of teams that i shouldnt have. Wanted to take hte mets as you said earlier they are the possible play. then you did not post, but someone else did and i did not make a bet.

P.S. I hope you dont go tout on us. this system seems like $. I hope it keeps up.

P.P.S You posted past results for only april 2011/12 and may 2011/12. If you get some time please some more would be great!

Air, that's a good idea. I've been thinking about how to make this easier without giving up to many details. I just want to win some money.and share it so guys cash in too.
 
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Posted: #192
Sportsanasia site shows 6/1 mets and pads as winners but I didn't think they were official plays or did they become official? Last I seen was Phils mets lad Boston nym pads as potential plays that day. Someone explain bc Im guessing I'm missing something w comparison of this thread and sportsanasia site
 
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Posted: #193
3 potential games. Alright, here are some guidelines.
1. No bet if the line is higher than -110 for either team.
Some exceptions made for -111, but I'll review as needed.
2. Wait for the line movements to stop, some times moves happen up to 2-3 minutes before game time.
3. Take the DOG
4. Avoid games where the DOG is going to sweep a series.

6/3- Texas 105
6/3 - Phil's 101
6/3 - Pirates 103

Thankfully, Mets are off because the are a DOG in a sweep series.
Westbrook gives me heartburn when he is pitching.
 
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Posted: #194
Quote Originally Posted by pokerfacedjoker:

Sportsanasia site shows 6/1 mets and pads as winners but I didn't think they were official plays or did they become official? Last I seen was Phils mets lad Boston nym pads as potential plays that day. Someone explain bc Im guessing I'm missing something w comparison of this thread and sportsanasia site
Forget the site right now. I need a faster way to get them posted and that takes to much time to update. Because this system is all about timing we need a fast way to deliver the plays.

I will use the site for official record keeping. I'm hoping to add the past years there too.
 
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Posted: #195
Listen guys, if you think baseball is mostly about numbers like I do then don't think too much about the game. There is a rhythm in baseball. For example. Dodgers kicking ass last week then lose 4 in a row.
All I'm looking for is a pattern in the numbers.
 
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Posted: #196
FYI - Mets aren't going for a sweep today...STL/NYM is a 4 game series...
 
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Posted: #197
Irage,

I know you don't want to explain exactly what you have going here but I doesn't stop me from being curious and trying to help out with past data. I understand most of it but I can't have all the filters yet because my data for last year didn't produce successful results as the season went along. Also, can you take a look at May's results again. I think on 5/6 you have MIA and SD as picks but they played each other and that game wouldn't have qualified I don't think.
 
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Posted: #198
I didn't realize that Mets were a 4 game series.
In this case, just take the DOG provided the other criteria is met.

Angels line is moving, they are now the DOG.
If they stay the DOG pass on this game.
 
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Posted: #199
Quote Originally Posted by mattymeach31:

Irage,

I know you don't want to explain exactly what you have going here but I doesn't stop me from being curious and trying to help out with past data. I understand most of it but I can't have all the filters yet because my data for last year didn't produce successful results as the season went along. Also, can you take a look at May's results again. I think on 5/6 you have MIA and SD as picks but they played each other and that game wouldn't have qualified I don't think.

You bet. Thanks for the double check. I'll look into that
 
 
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Posted: #200
Quote Originally Posted by irage:

Angels line is moving, they are now the DOG.
If they stay the DOG pass on this game.


Couldn't TEX be a play regardless?  Like if dogs win (as they have been) but we can't play them when they're closing out a sweep (meaning they'll lose) shouldn't TEX be bet on if they're a dog or a small fave?

Also, MIL is now the dog to PIT.  Still bet this game?
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