ive been following this trying to make sense of it also..
so would pitt be a play on thurs at +3 homedog 35.) pitt schudule (71.64) rank (37)
38.) miami schedule (69.69) rank (48)
so even though pitt has better credentials as far as the ratings go, they are a home dog
It would be a play for me, However, it is better when the underdog has at least a 10pt advantage in schedule # and is higher on the chart .As the season progresses, these numbers become stronger. This is where you can find value in the underdog because oddsmakers undervalue that team and the media etc have overhyped tha Favorite.
Perfect example of this was last year ( I have all the weekly charts from the past 5 years and this dog system is close to 100% ATS )
Oklahoma @ Miami U. Oct 3,2009. Miami played an (82.5) Schedule( #1 Rank.)Oklahoma came in overhyped even after thier star QB went down. Miami one the game 21-20 as an 8pt home dog. Those plays are bankroll boosters for sure.
The number you really want to concentrate on is the schedule #..not the rank. Although the rank# is important, the schedule # is that teams opponent or caliber of competition plus or minus the 3 pt for home field advantage, or home field disadvantage with the road team..The rank refers to the schedule itself. ie 3rd toughest schedule in the ncaa as a whole or the 123rd toughest (or in this case the easiest) in the NCAA
Things are a bit more different in NFL . Check The NFL ratings and look at Pittsburghs numbers and compare it to thier opponent this week, T.Bay .Pitt has a 7 pt advantage in schedule # and #8 rank vs T.Bay's # 31 rank. Big difference when a n NFL team has a 5-8 point advantage in schedule and advantage in rank #.
In this case Pitt is the fav. I have seen Dogs with Pitts rating numbers and position on the chart (higher on the chart). Those plays are bankroll builders.
I even like Pitt -2.5 this week. TBay is a fraud,and with Pitts defense will expose them with that soft #. They will smother TBays pedestrian offense. You can tell just by looking at the chart that Pitt is a superior scheduled favorite with a soilid defense and TB is a ( oh wow..look at Tampa bay now) fraud
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Quote Originally Posted by jcook:
ive been following this trying to make sense of it also..
so would pitt be a play on thurs at +3 homedog 35.) pitt schudule (71.64) rank (37)
38.) miami schedule (69.69) rank (48)
so even though pitt has better credentials as far as the ratings go, they are a home dog
It would be a play for me, However, it is better when the underdog has at least a 10pt advantage in schedule # and is higher on the chart .As the season progresses, these numbers become stronger. This is where you can find value in the underdog because oddsmakers undervalue that team and the media etc have overhyped tha Favorite.
Perfect example of this was last year ( I have all the weekly charts from the past 5 years and this dog system is close to 100% ATS )
Oklahoma @ Miami U. Oct 3,2009. Miami played an (82.5) Schedule( #1 Rank.)Oklahoma came in overhyped even after thier star QB went down. Miami one the game 21-20 as an 8pt home dog. Those plays are bankroll boosters for sure.
The number you really want to concentrate on is the schedule #..not the rank. Although the rank# is important, the schedule # is that teams opponent or caliber of competition plus or minus the 3 pt for home field advantage, or home field disadvantage with the road team..The rank refers to the schedule itself. ie 3rd toughest schedule in the ncaa as a whole or the 123rd toughest (or in this case the easiest) in the NCAA
Things are a bit more different in NFL . Check The NFL ratings and look at Pittsburghs numbers and compare it to thier opponent this week, T.Bay .Pitt has a 7 pt advantage in schedule # and #8 rank vs T.Bay's # 31 rank. Big difference when a n NFL team has a 5-8 point advantage in schedule and advantage in rank #.
In this case Pitt is the fav. I have seen Dogs with Pitts rating numbers and position on the chart (higher on the chart). Those plays are bankroll builders.
I even like Pitt -2.5 this week. TBay is a fraud,and with Pitts defense will expose them with that soft #. They will smother TBays pedestrian offense. You can tell just by looking at the chart that Pitt is a superior scheduled favorite with a soilid defense and TB is a ( oh wow..look at Tampa bay now) fraud
ULL D dominated Arkansas St on the ground holding them to 18 yards on 19 carries, however, got burned for 438 yards through the air. Ark St is more of a passing team. Ark St gained 184 of those passing yards once they were down 31-7 going into the 4th quarter.
ULL D did force 3 turnovers and got 10 points off them, however, ULL D is suspect against the big play allowing TD of 65 yards.
I don't like ULL special teams. ULL Kicker missed a FG and had one blocked in the 4th quarter. Ark St turned those momentum swings into 2 4th qtr TDs.
Middle Tenn St won't have Dasher at QB. He is still suspended. Their QBs have struggled in losses to a bad Minnesota team and a very bad Memphis team. Middle Tenn St running game avg 2 yards per carry against Memphis.
Keys for ULL:
Stop the run Force MTSU QBs to beat you Force Turnovers on D Don't let up in the 4th Qtr
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ULL D dominated Arkansas St on the ground holding them to 18 yards on 19 carries, however, got burned for 438 yards through the air. Ark St is more of a passing team. Ark St gained 184 of those passing yards once they were down 31-7 going into the 4th quarter.
ULL D did force 3 turnovers and got 10 points off them, however, ULL D is suspect against the big play allowing TD of 65 yards.
I don't like ULL special teams. ULL Kicker missed a FG and had one blocked in the 4th quarter. Ark St turned those momentum swings into 2 4th qtr TDs.
Middle Tenn St won't have Dasher at QB. He is still suspended. Their QBs have struggled in losses to a bad Minnesota team and a very bad Memphis team. Middle Tenn St running game avg 2 yards per carry against Memphis.
Keys for ULL:
Stop the run Force MTSU QBs to beat you Force Turnovers on D Don't let up in the 4th Qtr
This is the type of play Im talking about. Check both teams Schedule # and Rank #
So Wiz, Who Do You Like In The TCU/SMU Game Fri.?
Even Though My Numbers Projected A Pitt Win, I Was Wondering If You Had Any Additional Info. On This System Finding Underdogs Cuz The System Is Always Going To Spit Out The Favs Winning?
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
V.Tech +3 / N. Carolina +5.5
This is the type of play Im talking about. Check both teams Schedule # and Rank #
So Wiz, Who Do You Like In The TCU/SMU Game Fri.?
Even Though My Numbers Projected A Pitt Win, I Was Wondering If You Had Any Additional Info. On This System Finding Underdogs Cuz The System Is Always Going To Spit Out The Favs Winning?
Nice job Boss. I see a few on the radar myself. Even though N.Carolina has these guys still susp. Take a look at the 30pt Schedule advantage for NC @ Rutgers.Its at a PK. Add 7 to NC for the teaser. Memphis looks good. keep In touch.
teaser 7: UNC+7/memphis +17.5
another winning bet here
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Nice job Boss. I see a few on the radar myself. Even though N.Carolina has these guys still susp. Take a look at the 30pt Schedule advantage for NC @ Rutgers.Its at a PK. Add 7 to NC for the teaser. Memphis looks good. keep In touch.
No, definetly not, if you look at the schedule # 65 -and Kansas # 67 its basicly telling you both teams play the same caliber of competition.The 16 differentia is not that great it means nothing. This is not a game I would put big money on. It was a test only...a failed test. No problem.
Now look at Auburns rank(93) and compare it to Clemsons rank (200).Now that is a big differece 107.The important nuber to look at is the Schedule #
No the schedule number has no bearing on todays game. All it means is the level of competiton you play all year. Take a team like Western Kentucky, haven't won in 20 plus games but their schedule # could be 1 if they had to play Ohio St and Bosie St their last 2 games
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
No, definetly not, if you look at the schedule # 65 -and Kansas # 67 its basicly telling you both teams play the same caliber of competition.The 16 differentia is not that great it means nothing. This is not a game I would put big money on. It was a test only...a failed test. No problem.
Now look at Auburns rank(93) and compare it to Clemsons rank (200).Now that is a big differece 107.The important nuber to look at is the Schedule #
No the schedule number has no bearing on todays game. All it means is the level of competiton you play all year. Take a team like Western Kentucky, haven't won in 20 plus games but their schedule # could be 1 if they had to play Ohio St and Bosie St their last 2 games
No the schedule number has no bearing on todays game. All it means is the level of competiton you play all year. Take a team like Western Kentucky, haven't won in 20 plus games but their schedule # could be 1 if they had to play Ohio St and Bosie St their last 2 games
Dude, dont worry I know what the schedule # means.
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Quote Originally Posted by HECTAR:
No the schedule number has no bearing on todays game. All it means is the level of competiton you play all year. Take a team like Western Kentucky, haven't won in 20 plus games but their schedule # could be 1 if they had to play Ohio St and Bosie St their last 2 games
Dude, dont worry I know what the schedule # means.
im sorry for the lack of knowledge...just started following sagarin...why is it important to keep a running summary of each weeks sagarins ratings?
The reason I keep a summary of each weeks ratings is that toward the last quarter of both seasons (NFL/NCAA) you can go back to each teams Home/Away opponents ratings and retain an average as to what type of caliber each taem is playing at Home and on the road.
Once you have that average, you then have to find out by how many points each teams margin of victory is over thier average opponents rating in order to make a line on the game.
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Quote Originally Posted by jcook:
im sorry for the lack of knowledge...just started following sagarin...why is it important to keep a running summary of each weeks sagarins ratings?
The reason I keep a summary of each weeks ratings is that toward the last quarter of both seasons (NFL/NCAA) you can go back to each teams Home/Away opponents ratings and retain an average as to what type of caliber each taem is playing at Home and on the road.
Once you have that average, you then have to find out by how many points each teams margin of victory is over thier average opponents rating in order to make a line on the game.
Like the Vandy pick even without the additional 10 points. Michigan winning SU over Indiana is highly probable. Miami and +6.5 makes me nervous, would like to see that go over the key #.
BOL
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Like the Vandy pick even without the additional 10 points. Michigan winning SU over Indiana is highly probable. Miami and +6.5 makes me nervous, would like to see that go over the key #.
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