Jeffs Holy Grail

Question

Jeff&#x27;s gone, but his system continues on.

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

Jeff&#x27;s gone, but his system continues on.

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

quoted from last threadOk guys I&#x27;m sure there will be plenty of disbelievers but it took me about 4 days to research and filter it to perfection!Rules are as follows:1) Starts on April 15 and series chase must end by Sept 12) 5 game chase but only 3.2% went to that point (10 of 305)3) Wait for a team to lose 4 in a row before starting chase4) Win % for team after the 4 losses must be above .5175) If the team being chased lost first 4 on the road you must look at the next series team and see if they had a losing record coming into to the series being played. Seems hard to follow but happens only about 15% of the time or less.6) Cash your ticketI believe I remembered all the rules if not will post later.Now this system only produces about 18 plays a year but if your patient it will not lose! I will post plays when they happen! There has been 12-0 plays this year already which is good!  Any questions feel free to ask Good luck if you play and let&#x27;s get the

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

Post #2 was from 2013.This is what I have so far this year8-0A 6-2B 1-1C 0-1D 1-0

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

And I&#x27;ve been too busy to pay attention but Wednesday was a San Francisco play...but they lost so...goood!Today:San Fran (B)

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

Don&#x27;t ask me about unit size and chases and labbys etc etc etc.  My money management this year has been horrible.  I have to sit down and figure a formula for myself to recover losses similar too but not fully a chase....labby maybe?  Thoughts?

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

Any thoughts for money management, go here:https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&amp;sub=101907301

Kababayan · Answer

Thanks for continuing this system.

Kababayan · Answer

Thanks for continuing this system.

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

Today:San Fran (C)I kinda figured last night was gonna be a loss.....Lincecum

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

San Fran (C) WinnerThis is what I have so far this year9-0A 6-3B 1-2C 1-1D 1-0

cruzdiablo · Answer

Tomorrow KC?

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

Yep, Kansas City (A)

alabamam25 · Answer

5) If the team being chased lost first 4 on the road you must look at the next series team and see if they had a losing record coming into to the series being played. Seems hard to follow but happens only about 15% of the time or less.

question when u look at next series what are u looking for what qualify a play says see if "(THEY?)had a losing record" ....... see if team chasing has losing record versus next tm there playing next or see if the next tm there playing has a losin record and if they do or dont then what ? and losing record as in 3 in row ?4 in row? below .517?

step 5 says see if they have a losing record but doesnt say what to do if htey do or dont have a losing record

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

KC a winner10-0A 7-3B 1-2C 1-1D 1-0

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

I forgot to put that in my excel that I update, it doesn&#x27;t use that rule.  I would have to make another tab to figure that one out and I don&#x27;t have the time right now.  All the plays I post ignore rule #5 until I can make that formula which probably won&#x27;t be until the off season.

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

Errr.  I forgot to mention that I don&#x27;t use that rule...that my excel I made......blah blah

AssMan160 · Answer

Would Tor (A) be a play today?

Bart_ · Answer

Buckeye, do you have the full 2014 results for this system?

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

i just backtested it:A 17-11B 4-7C 2-5D 3-2E 1-1F 1-0i see that it&#x27;s supposed to be a 5 game chase

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

i didn&#x27;t use rule 5 in my backtest. i seem to remember the rule meaning that the opponent had won their previous series, not that their overall win percentage was over 50%, but i could definitely be wrong.i applied rule 5 (using overall win percentage and previous series record) to only the series that won on game 6, and it would have eliminated it.here are the numbers for previous years2013A 16-12B 7-5C 4-1D 1-02012A 15-12B 8-4C 2-2D 1-1E 1-02011A 8-12B 5-7C 4-3D 1-2E 2-0

GhostNL · Answer

Looks decent, average odds?

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

about a third of the plays are dogs. average odds are pretty consistent:

2014: -108

2013: -111

2012: -115

2011: -105

41 out of a total of 189 plays (21.7%) are -150 or worse.

i'm going to go through and add in rule 5, if i can do it easy enough. i'll do it both ways (total WP and previous series WP).

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

i went back and looked at it. i think it's designed to take out the pick in which the opponent won (had greater than 50% of) their previous series, but i did it both ways. it’s pretty clear that it needs Rule 5, but i’m not sure which is the better way to go, overall WP or series. i hope this formatting comes out okay, this was the best way to compare the 2. they both have pros and cons. what do you think?

number of series in which the team lost all 4 of its games on the road:

2014: 10

2013: 9

2012: 7

2011: 9

plays removed:

based on series overall WP

2014: 4 (B, D, E, F) 2014: 7 (3A, 2B, 1D, 1F)

2013: 4 (A, 2B, C) 2013: 7 (3A, 2B, 1C, 1D)

2012: 6 (3A, 2B, 1E) 2012: 5 (1A, 2B, 1D, 1E)

2011: 7 (3A, 2B, 1C, 1D) 2011: 4 (1A, 1B, 2C)

total 21 (7A, 7B, 2C, 2D, 2E, 1F) total: 23 (8A, 7B, 3C, 3D, 1E, 1F)

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

which makes the records:series                                                   overall2014                                                     2014A 17-7 (71% - 60.7% w/o Rule 5)          A 14-7 (66.7%)B 3-4                                                  B 2-5C 2-2                                                  C 2-3D 2-0                                                  D 2-1                                                          E 1-02013                                                      2013A 15-9 (62.5% - 57% w/o Rule 5)           A 13-8 (61.9%)B 5-4                                                   B 5-3C 3-1                                                   C 3-0D 1-0

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

2012                                                      2012A 12-9 (57.1% - 55.5% w/o Rule 5)         A 14-8 (64%)B 6-3                                                    B 6-2C 2-1                                                    C 2-0D 1-0                                                          2011                                                       2011A 5-8 (38.4% - 40% w/o Rule 5)              A 7-9 (44%)B 3-5                                                    B 4-5C 3-2                                                    C 2-3D 0-2                                                    D 1-2E 2-0                                                    E 2-0average odds with those series removed:series:                                           overall2014: -116                                  2014: -1122013: -111                                  2013: -1202012: -114                                  2012: -1192011: -101                                  2011: -109

Jeffs Holy Grail

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