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Kreatture's Playbook 2011

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Posted: #601

K-man, what made you select Sports Interaction?

I missed all the plays yesterday......f$#@

Go get 'em today!

 
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Posted: #602

Oh, forgot to ask, do you think we'll have the opportunity to play the Ravens/Steelers in the same fashion as the BCS Championship by betting on opposites sides with the live wagering?

 
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Posted: #603

They're Canadian 

They're being plugged as one of the best Live Betting sites out there right now so I want to give it a try. Intertops has a phenomenal interface for Live Betting but the odds suck and I know I'm losing a lot of value because of it. I just made a small deposit there for now, but if I like it better over the weekend then I'll pull my funds from Intertops and make a full switch. Will keep you updated.

Cheers 

 
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Posted: #604
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

Oh, forgot to ask, do you think we'll have the opportunity to play the Ravens/Steelers in the same fashion as the BCS Championship by betting on opposites sides with the live wagering?

I'm more inclined to do this for the Packers/Falcons tonight since the lines are basically even right now. If you are going to do it for the Ravens/Steelers (which I may, will let you know) then I would grab the Ravens ML right now at +153 (Pinnacle) and look for an opportunity to get the Steelers In-Game. The problem with that is I really like the Steelers today and think they could lead the whole way and you may never get the chance for them at +money. The Pittsburgh Moneyline is at -170 to start, so Baltimore would have to grab at least a 7pt lead early, and most likely 10, for Pitts to move to +odds.

In the late game, either side who grabs a lead will move the odds more so I feel that is the better game to Live Wager.

 
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Posted: #605
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

BANKROLL: $13,283.03
OVERALL RECORD: 98-94-7    (51.04%)

INVESTED: $51,194.09
RETURNED: $54,477.12
PROFIT: +$3,283.03
ROI %: +6.41%

Here's a couple of plays for today I just locked in. These are available on Intertops under NFL-NFL Winning Margins. This is also available on Sports Interaction under Football-NFL-More Betting but the margin isn't as good. I could not find it on Pinnacle. This is based on my prediction that both of these games will be extremely close and could come down to the final drive, in which case this will be a nice day. The odds are so good they will allow us to take both sides at 4-1 and we'll just hope it stays close to the end. Max amounts on this are $520 on Intertops, so no worries about that.

NFL WINNING MARGINS

Steelers to win by 01-06  (+335)
2% $265.66 to win $889.96

Ravens to win by 01-06  (+350)
1.5% $199.25 to win $697.38

Packers to win by 01-06  (+300)
2% $265.66 to win $796.98

Falcons to win by 01-06  (+335)
1.5% $199.25 to win $667.48

 

The Sports Interaction Margins are only 1-5pts which loses a ton of value since 6 is a key number in these games where we might see more field goals than touchdowns. I personally wouldn't play both sides there, but I would play Pittsburgh 1-5 (+250) and Green Bay 1-5 (+400) for 1-2% each.

 

 
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Posted: #606
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

They're Canadian 

They're being plugged as one of the best Live Betting sites out there right now so I want to give it a try. Intertops has a phenomenal interface for Live Betting but the odds suck and I know I'm losing a lot of value because of it. I just made a small deposit there for now, but if I like it better over the weekend then I'll pull my funds from Intertops and make a full switch. Will keep you updated.

Cheers 

what method did you use to fund your account?  A buddy of mine is on it and he's been waiting forever to get a payout.  I think he uses a credit card for deposits though which I think takes longer for payouts, plus it's his first attempt to get some cash out!

Keeep us posted as we know Pinnacle blows for live wagering in terms of short windows to get your wagers in.

 
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Posted: #607
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

I'm more inclined to do this for the Packers/Falcons tonight since the lines are basically even right now. If you are going to do it for the Ravens/Steelers (which I may, will let you know) then I would grab the Ravens ML right now at +153 (Pinnacle) and look for an opportunity to get the Steelers In-Game. The problem with that is I really like the Steelers today and think they could lead the whole way and you may never get the chance for them at +money. The Pittsburgh Moneyline is at -170 to start, so Baltimore would have to grab at least a 7pt lead early, and most likely 10, for Pitts to move to +odds.

In the late game, either side who grabs a lead will move the odds more so I feel that is the better game to Live Wager.

Thanks for the insight here.  Makes a lot of sense. I don't have a feeling either way as to who will win, I think it will be close and I'd like to see the Ravens win only because I like them better than the Steelers, which is no reason to make a pick.

 
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Posted: #608

NFL PROPS

Will either team score 3 or more consecutive scores?  NO (+143)
2% $265.66to win $379.89

What will happen 1st for Joe Flacco?  Throw an Interception (vs. a TD) (+146)
0.5% $66.42 to win $96.97

Total Rushing Yards for Rashed Mendenhall  OVER 65.5 (-107)
1.5% $199.25 to win $186.21

Will Troy Polamalu Intercept a Pass?  YES (+224)
0.5% $66.42 to win $148.78

 

These are all found on Pinnacle. There will be no more additions except for the game itself.

Cheers 

 

 
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Posted: #609
The BCS game was a bit different - b/c high scoring games allow for better in-game opportunity - to get both teams.  PIT/BAL probably lower scoring game than that game (and definitely expected to be lower scoring than what that game was anticipated to be).
 
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Posted: #610
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

what method did you use to fund your account?  A buddy of mine is on it and he's been waiting forever to get a payout.  I think he uses a credit card for deposits though which I think takes longer for payouts, plus it's his first attempt to get some cash out!

Keeep us posted as we know Pinnacle blows for live wagering in terms of short windows to get your wagers in.

I was going to use my Visa but I got a message saying my credit card company does not allow transactions to Sportsbooks, which I found odd. Has anyone else ever come across this? They said I could get a Speedcard and then use my CC to fund that, but it would be in Euros and it didn't sound like something I wanted to bother with.

 So I just used my Instadebit account, which is the method I've always used at any sportsbook, forever. I've never had any problems with Instadebit.

 
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Posted: #611

Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

The BCS game was a bit different - b/c high scoring games allow for better in-game opportunity - to get both teams.  PIT/BAL probably lower scoring game than that game (and definitely expected to be lower scoring than what that game was anticipated to be).

Another excellent point 

 
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Posted: #612
Hey Kreatture - curious if you ever look at quarter lines - I'm starting to do some work on those.  For example, BAL is +1/2 every Q (laying 20-40 cents each Q), problem is I like PIT in game, but generally seems like those bets can work as every tied Q, 0-0, 3-3, 7-7, etc are wins for you.  Just curious if you have insights on those bets - if/when I get a conclusion on them, will share as well.

Just quick analysis suggests 25ish outcomes: 0, 3, 6, 7, 10 x 0, 3, 6, 7, 10 - and you win 15 of the 25 (10 where BAL wins, 5 ties) - and that's 15/25 - which is -150 so -120 to -140 is value - not sure I'm missing anything, but will think about it more...
 
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Posted: #613

NFL FUTURES - NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

You have to believe the winner of today's Packers/Falcons game will be going to the Superbowl for the NFC. Seattle and Chicago just aren't in the same class. With that being said, instead of wagering on a ML for tonight's GB/ATL game, we would be better off wagering on a Futures Bet for either team to win next week's NFC Championship Game. Now if you really like one side or the other, you could just wager on that one side (Atlanta +173 or Green Bay +238, Pinnacle). In my case - since I'm looking at an investment angle rather than a pure gambling stance - I'm looking to place wagers on both of these sides. Thus, no matter who wins tonight, we will have a wager all ready in for next weekend's Championship Game with a guaranteed +money (this is if you only believe Seattle or Chicago has very little chance next weekend, which I do). Depending on next week's odds, we could very easily be presented with another hedging opportunity if we saw fit to do so. The fact I like Green Bay to win both games just offers even more value. So with that being said.. we will tie up a bit of money for 1 week with what I feel is a solid Investment Opportunity.

To Win the NFC Championship

Atlanta Falcons  (+173)
3% $398.49 to win $689.39

Green Bay Packers  (+238)
3% $398.49 to win $948.41

 
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Posted: #614
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

I was going to use my Visa but I got a message saying my credit card company does not allow transactions to Sportsbooks, which I found odd. Has anyone else ever come across this? They said I could get a Speedcard and then use my CC to fund that, but it would be in Euros and it didn't sound like something I wanted to bother with.

 So I just used my Instadebit account, which is the method I've always used at any sportsbook, forever. I've never had any problems with Instadebit.

I use instadebit as well, and it's solid.

 
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Posted: #615

Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

Hey Kreatture - curious if you ever look at quarter lines - I'm starting to do some work on those.  For example, BAL is +1/2 every Q (laying 20-40 cents each Q), problem is I like PIT in game, but generally seems like those bets can work as every tied Q, 0-0, 3-3, 7-7, etc are wins for you.  Just curious if you have insights on those bets - if/when I get a conclusion on them, will share as well.

Just quick analysis suggests 25ish outcomes: 0, 3, 6, 7, 10 x 0, 3, 6, 7, 10 - and you win 15 of the 25 (10 where BAL wins, 5 ties) - and that's 15/25 - which is -150 so -120 to -140 is value - not sure I'm missing anything, but will think about it more...

I haven't looked into Quarters as much for NFL, moreso NBA. I think the fact I have Pittsburgh winning the game nullifies most of the value to a point where it would be a wash for me. This would be something I would prefer to Chase, with the thought process that Baltimore would tie or win 1 quarter. That being said, since I have Pittsburgh winning, I would rather Chase Pittsburgh at +money to outright win 1 quarter.

 
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Posted: #616
Hey Kreatture - thx re quarter comment.  What is "Chase"?

I like GB winning NFC, but I think there is a better way to express the bet.  Bet GB +100 today ML (or even better lines as +100 is easily available).  Then, as long as they are no worse than -145 next week - you could parlay that money to that bet.  Basically +100/-145 is equiavlent to +238 - and they will be BETTER than -145 at CHI, if anything it will be pick em? and +100/+100 is equivalent to +300 which is better than +238.  I notice that it's almost always better to roll and "parlay" teams you like to go deep as bet multi-game futures.  Just a thought.
 
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Posted: #617

NFL

Teaser (+140)
Pittsburgh Steelers  +4
Green Bay Packers  +8.5
New England Patriots  -1.5
4% $531.32 to win $743.85

This is all I'm choosing to go with for picking sides today. There will be no more additions for NFL until the conclusion of the Ravens/Steelers game. I will be keeping an eye on the Live Betting screen, so if you're going to be around tonight please check in. I will be staying home all evening.

I'm off for a few hours, be back for kick-off.

Cheers 

 
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Posted: #618
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

BANKROLL: $13,283.03
OVERALL RECORD: 98-94-7    (51.04%)

INVESTED: $51,194.09
RETURNED: $54,477.12
PROFIT: +$3,283.03
ROI %: +6.41%

Here's a couple of plays for today I just locked in. These are available on Intertops under NFL-NFL Winning Margins. This is also available on Sports Interaction under Football-NFL-More Betting but the margin isn't as good. I could not find it on Pinnacle. This is based on my prediction that both of these games will be extremely close and could come down to the final drive, in which case this will be a nice day. The odds are so good they will allow us to take both sides at 4-1 and we'll just hope it stays close to the end. Max amounts on this are $520 on Intertops, so no worries about that.

NFL WINNING MARGINS

Steelers to win by 01-06  (+335)
2% $265.66 to win $889.96

Ravens to win by 01-06  (+350)
1.5% $199.25 to win $697.38

Packers to win by 01-06  (+300)
2% $265.66 to win $796.98

Falcons to win by 01-06  (+335)
1.5% $199.25 to win $667.48

The Sports Interaction Margins are only 1-5pts which loses a ton of value since 6 is a key number in these games where we might see more field goals than touchdowns. I personally wouldn't play both sides there, but I would play Pittsburgh 1-5 (+250) and Green Bay 1-5 (+400) for 1-2% each.

NFL PROPS

Will either team score 3 or more consecutive scores?  NO (+143)
2% $265.66to win $379.89

What will happen 1st for Joe Flacco?  Throw an Interception (vs. a TD) (+146)
0.5% $66.42 to win $96.97

Total Rushing Yards for Rashed Mendenhall  OVER 65.5 (-107)
1.5% $199.25 to win $186.21

Will Troy Polamalu Intercept a Pass?  YES (+224)
0.5% $66.42 to win $148.78

These are all found on Pinnacle.

NFL FUTURES - NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

You have to believe the winner of today's Packers/Falcons game will be going to the Superbowl for the NFC. Seattle and Chicago just aren't in the same class. With that being said, instead of wagering on a ML for tonight's GB/ATL game, we would be better off wagering on a Futures Bet for either team to win next week's NFC Championship Game. Now if you really like one side or the other, you could just wager on that one side (Atlanta +173 or Green Bay +238, Pinnacle). In my case - since I'm looking at an investment angle rather than a pure gambling stance - I'm looking to place wagers on both of these sides. Thus, no matter who wins tonight, we will have a wager all ready in for next weekend's Championship Game with a guaranteed +money (this is if you only believe Seattle or Chicago has very little chance next weekend, which I do). Depending on next week's odds, we could very easily be presented with another hedging opportunity if we saw fit to do so. The fact I like Green Bay to win both games just offers even more value. So with that being said.. we will tie up a bit of money for 1 week with what I feel is a solid Investment Opportunity.

To Win the NFC Championship

Atlanta Falcons  (+173)
3% $398.49 to win $689.39

Green Bay Packers  (+238)
3% $398.49 to win $948.41

NFL

Teaser (+140)
Pittsburgh Steelers  +4
Green Bay Packers  +8.5
New England Patriots  -1.5
4% $531.32 to win $743.85

Just to recap everything and put it all together in one place.. see you in a few hours.

 
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Posted: #619
Anything on the Coin Tosses?
 
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Posted: #620
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

They're Canadian 

They're being plugged as one of the best Live Betting sites out there right now so I want to give it a try. Intertops has a phenomenal interface for Live Betting but the odds suck and I know I'm losing a lot of value because of it. I just made a small deposit there for now, but if I like it better over the weekend then I'll pull my funds from Intertops and make a full switch. Will keep you updated.

Cheers 

Have you looked at bet365? Their live betting is quite impressive as is there mobile interface.  They also provide decent loyalty bonuses.  I'm not sure how the amounts work out but it's probably based on your account, I consider myself small time, still searching for consistancy before increasing to a substantial bankroll.

 
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Posted: #621
I have a small account at bet365, it's what I used for the game differnece props.  No problems with tem to date.
 
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Posted: #622
BANKROLL: $13,283.03
OVERALL RECORD: 98-94-7    (51.04%)

INVESTED: $51,194.09
RETURNED: $54,477.12
PROFIT: +$3,283.03
ROI %: +6.41%


NBA

Dallas Mavericks  ML (+245)
2% $265.66 to win $650.87

Miami Heat  ML (+127)
3% $398.49 to win $506.08

Portland Trailblazers  1st Half -5.5 (+100)
1% $132.83 to win $132.83


NHL

Columbus Blue Jackets  ML (+170)
1% $132.83 to win $225.81

 
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Posted: #623
I'm loving the Live Betting on Sports Interaction. The interface is great and the flow in real time is very smooth. The prices aren't necessarily any better than Intertops, but they are different.
At the very worst, I now have 2 options for Live Betting and that is never a bad thing.

The prices on other sports don't seem to be any better than Intertops either, but they do offer a wide range of betting options. So while I doubt I will leave Intertops completely, it is always nice to have multiple sources to line shop from.

What a football game this is.. the television viewers will all be exhausted by the time Green Bay/Atlanta begins!


 
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Posted: #624
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

Have you looked at bet365? Their live betting is quite impressive as is there mobile interface.  They also provide decent loyalty bonuses.  I'm not sure how the amounts work out but it's probably based on your account, I consider myself small time, still searching for consistancy before increasing to a substantial bankroll.



I think I briefly checked them out a couple years ago, but can't remember what I would have liked or not liked. I'll check them out again on your recommendation. It's unlikely I would fund a 4th account right now, but if I do I'll PM you for your referral ID if they give a referral bonus.

Thanks 
 
 
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Posted: #625
Holy shit.. this is gonna be a sick bad beat. Baltimore has to get a goal line stand now to keep this from being a 7pt win. Gross.. 
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