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Kreatture's Playbook 2011

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Posted: #701
Monfils didn't look the best in the opening round but he should clear Gil easier than he did de Bakker; I just don't know if -1250 has any value in it though. Love Sharapova and Wawrinka to easily advance more than 3 times out of 4 and Verdasco is usually good in the Ausi Open... Good luck P!
 
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Posted: #702
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

Monfils didn't look the best in the opening round but he should clear Gil easier than he did de Bakker; I just don't know if -1250 has any value in it though. Love Sharapova and Wawrinka to easily advance more than 3 times out of 4 and Verdasco is usually good in the Ausi Open... Good luck P!


Better value +198 by dropping Monfils and going with 3.
 
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Posted: #703

Quote Originally Posted by smitler:



Better value +198 by dropping Monfils and going with 3.

How do you figure you're getting higher odds by dropping a guy?

Odds on the 3 are 2.52 and with Monfils is 2.67.

 
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Posted: #704

Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

Monfils didn't look the best in the opening round but he should clear Gil easier than he did de Bakker; I just don't know if -1250 has any value in it though. Love Sharapova and Wawrinka to easily advance more than 3 times out of 4 and Verdasco is usually good in the Ausi Open... Good luck P!

I have Monfils going a long ways through the bracket so I see no trouble tonight. Yeah -1250 sucks, but it's an extra $45 on a $300 wager. If trouble arises I can always grab something Live Betting.

How's this for no value?? -129 $50 for fun. Not posted for obvious reasons! They should offer me 4-1odds for picking out which one of these loses!

1 Na Li To Win -2000
2 Victoria Azarenka To Win -5000
3 Maria Sharapova To Win -400
4 Venus Williams To Win -2000
5 Roger Federer To Win -2500
6 Gael Monfils To Win -1250
7 Novak Djokovic To Win -10000
8 Andy Roddick To Win -3333
9 Caroline Wozniacki To Win -2000
10 Justine Henin To Win -3333

 
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Posted: #705
Djokovic -10000! My goodness!
 
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Posted: #706
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

How do you figure you're getting higher odds by dropping a guy?

Odds on the 3 are 2.52 and with Monfils is 2.67.



You're right. I was comparing the payout between my books as 1 wouldn't let me use Monfils (-1350) in the parlay and the other had him at -2000.  Even at -2000 the 4 parlay was +163 and the 3 without GM was +150.
 
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Posted: #707
BANKROLL: $8,972.65
OVERALL RECORD: 109-116-7  (48.44%)

INVESTED: $60,249.41
RETURNED: $59,222.06
PROFIT: -$1,027.35
ROI %: -1.71%


NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins  -0.5 (+120) (regulation)
3% $269.18 to win $323.02

Detroit Red Wings/Pittsburgh Penguins  Under 6 (-114)
1% $89.73 to win $78.71
Bought 0.5 goals

Boston Bruins/Carolina Hurricanes  Under 5 (+179)
1% $89.73 to win $160.62
Sold 0.5 goals


 
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Posted: #708
I won't be watching any games tonight so there will be no additions of any kind. Tomorrow's full card will also be up by 4pm EST and there will be no additions there either.

Have a good night 
 
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Posted: #709
What, you mean you are going to live your life instead of tending to us?  C'mon!
 
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Posted: #710
Verdasco is in some trouble early but starting to turn things around! 
 
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Posted: #711
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:



2% $200 to win $166.70

I don't know if anyone will be able to follow the in-game wagers, cuz like I said, the window is so small to get the wager in. Usually 1 quick commercial break at the longest. I liked the Under in this game originally, so with the Jets early kick-off return the Total was jumped, so we'll jump on an early inflated total.

I'll be sticking around and watching this game and looking for more opportunities. This is also a big game since it's the last win needed (Jets +11.5) to win Teaser #2, so I may look for a middle there if it looks good. We'll feel out this 1st Quarter and go from there.

The In-game is only way to go.  To each his own and I wish success for the next man but for the life of me I cant understand why people bet the game before it starts.  I realize not everyone has access to the In-game but picking off huge disparities in halftime lines from the original lines is a daily proposition.  
I post up at the M Casino in Las Vegas 5 days a week with acct ready to go for when the lines get crazy.  I actually had Seattle last week +21 +195 and +24.5 +135.
And thanks for putting me onto the Kelly Criterion...good stuff.  Personally, and most dont have the stomach for this but I prefer to to bet 1 increment...lose bet 2...lose bet 4...lose bet 8....lose bet 16.  
Picking 1 in 5 games correct while waiting for 15+ discounts on totals and 10+ on lines to make a profit of a unit a day is the best system I could devise.
Be interested to see how it works out for you...ultimately you have to have winners.  
GLTY
 
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Posted: #712
Quote Originally Posted by kiidvegas:


The In-game is only way to go.  To each his own and I wish success for the next man but for the life of me I cant understand why people bet the game before it starts.  I realize not everyone has access to the In-game but picking off huge disparities in halftime lines from the original lines is a daily proposition.  
I post up at the M Casino in Las Vegas 5 days a week with acct ready to go for when the lines get crazy.  I actually had Seattle last week +21 +195 and +24.5 +135.
And thanks for putting me onto the Kelly Criterion...good stuff.  Personally, and most dont have the stomach for this but I prefer to to bet 1 increment...lose bet 2...lose bet 4...lose bet 8....lose bet 16.  
Picking 1 in 5 games correct while waiting for 15+ discounts on totals and 10+ on lines to make a profit of a unit a day is the best system I could devise.
Be interested to see how it works out for you...ultimately you have to have winners.  
GLTY


1. Taking halftime lines based on the original game line isn't an exact science and shouldn't be your only method of capping. The only reason it is working (live betting is still relatively new, remember) is because Joe Public gets tricked into thinking the in-game vibes will continue. Once they realize that the original game line is more times than not, very accurate, they will stop betting with their gut and do what you are doing and then these plays will diminish.

2. Chasing will kill you. If you lose four bets in a row, it does NOT make your fifth game strong or more likely to win so you shouldn't be betting more. Stick to Kelly and you'll be much better off.
 
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Posted: #713

Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

Verdasco is in some trouble early but starting to turn things around! 

Fernando Verdasco. Is SICK

Had the pleasure of turning that match on in the 3rd Set and was treated to a VERY entertaining 5 Set comeback! One of those Match Points he saved against 2 overhead smashes (albeit one was backhand) with the massive forehand winner was unbelievable!!

And I don't feel bad for the other guy losing like that.. that's why you put the work in even on your off days, all about conditioning and mental stamina. The guy made a mockery of the game in the final point where he just stood there and let 4 straight serves go right by him.

Power to the Strong, Weed out the Weak!!

 

 
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Posted: #714
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

I have Monfils going a long ways through the bracket so I see no trouble tonight. Yeah -1250 sucks, but it's an extra $45 on a $300 wager. If trouble arises I can always grab something Live Betting.

How's this for no value?? -129 $50 for fun. Not posted for obvious reasons! They should offer me 4-1odds for picking out which one of these loses!

1 Na Li To Win -2000
2 Victoria Azarenka To Win -5000
3 Maria Sharapova To Win -400
4 Venus Williams To Win -2000
5 Roger Federer To Win -2500
6 Gael Monfils To Win -1250
7 Novak Djokovic To Win -10000
8 Andy Roddick To Win -3333
9 Caroline Wozniacki To Win -2000
10 Justine Henin To Win -3333

 

HaHa, well that was definitely a fun night watching those matches. Some real scares! A fun winner tho! 

 
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Posted: #715
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

BANKROLL: $8,972.65
OVERALL RECORD: 109-116-7  (48.44%)

INVESTED: $60,249.41
RETURNED: $59,222.06
PROFIT: -$1,027.35
ROI %: -1.71%

AUSTRALIAN OPEN

Parley  (+172)    
Fernando Verdasco  (-164) (men's)
Maria Sharapova  (-400) (women's)
Stanislas Wawrinka  (-400) (men's)
Gael Monfils  (-1250) (men's)
2% $179.45 to win $308.65

NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins  -0.5 (+120) (regulation)    
3% $269.18 to win $323.02

Detroit Red Wings/Pittsburgh Penguins  Under 6 (-114)    
1% $89.73 to win $78.71
Bought 0.5 goals

Boston Bruins/Carolina Hurricanes  Under 5 (+179)    (push)
1% $89.73 to win $160.62
Sold 0.5 goals

BANKROLL: $9,683.03
OVERALL RECORD: 112-116-8  (49.12%)

INVESTED: $60,877.50
RETURNED: $60,560.53
PROFIT: -$316.97
ROI %: -0.52%


 

 
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Posted: #716
More tennis parlays, please.
 
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Posted: #717
How is everyone here employing the Kelly Calculator? Is there a site that currently makes this available?

As far as games go I usually bet half of the amount I want on a game at the beginning and at halftime wager the remaining amount depending on how the flow of the game is going. Its too bad that covers doesnt actually allow you to track these types of wagers. It would be a great benefit for its members to have an all out simulation system on this site. This feature would without a doubt attract more members increasing their audience base which would return greater profits from sponsors.
 
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Posted: #718

Quote Originally Posted by gmisener:

More tennis parlays, please.

HaHa, thanks! Soon we'll be getting into straight up winners since the odds will become much better in the later rounds. There will be a parley for tonight tho, and I have my eye on a few upsets over the next 2 nights.

Also, I received your latest PM and will get back to you. It's rather in depth and I'm not available for long periods of time this week. We'll be in touch! 

Cheers 

 
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Posted: #719
Quote Originally Posted by kiidvegas:


The In-game is only way to go.  To each his own and I wish success for the next man but for the life of me I cant understand why people bet the game before it starts.  I realize not everyone has access to the In-game but picking off huge disparities in halftime lines from the original lines is a daily proposition.  
I post up at the M Casino in Las Vegas 5 days a week with acct ready to go for when the lines get crazy.  I actually had Seattle last week +21 +195 and +24.5 +135.
And thanks for putting me onto the Kelly Criterion...good stuff.  Personally, and most dont have the stomach for this but I prefer to to bet 1 increment...lose bet 2...lose bet 4...lose bet 8....lose bet 16.  
Picking 1 in 5 games correct while waiting for 15+ discounts on totals and 10+ on lines to make a profit of a unit a day is the best system I could devise.
Be interested to see how it works out for you...ultimately you have to have winners.  
GLTY

I've had a lot of success on the In-Game when I'm actually able to sit down and focus on what I'm doing. With the number of options on Sports Interaction for Live Betting I think I could spend 24hrs/day on their and make money. Last night was amazing, I nailed Verdasco 'To Win Match' in the 3rd Set when he was down 2 sets to 0 at +725, and then later hit Sharapova 'To Win Sets 2-0' after she was broke in her 1st service game for +400.

Chasing during Live Betting has it's place, but I wouldn't solely base my Live Betting on that. I've used the chasing style for MLB Innings and done quite well, but Intertops only ever had the Sunday Night game available.. I can't wait til this summer cuz I'm sure Sports Interaction will have games available every night!

Ultimately you're right, you gotta have winners! But for Live Betting it's all about Strategy. I wish I had enough Capital to be able to create a Hedge Fund, then I could make millions. Unfortunately, in order to make money - you need money! And I don't have anywheres near 6 or 7 digits to invest in that.. yet.

I think there's a link to a Kelly Calculator somewheres on the homepage of Covers.. but a simple Google search will yield numerous results.

Cheers 

 
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Posted: #720
I'm surprised to hear you so positive about live wagers considering your two biggest losing days were due to live wagering. The whole "they're too good to lose" will bite you in the ass, as it already has (Patriots last weekend, Oregon a few days before, Rams last weak of the season, etc.).

You should be hedging your position through live-wagering, not overexposing it. 
 
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Posted: #721
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:



1. Taking halftime lines based on the original game line isn't an exact science and shouldn't be your only method of capping. The only reason it is working (live betting is still relatively new, remember) is because Joe Public gets tricked into thinking the in-game vibes will continue. Once they realize that the original game line is more times than not, very accurate, they will stop betting with their gut and do what you are doing and then these plays will diminish.

2. Chasing will kill you. If you lose four bets in a row, it does NOT make your fifth game strong or more likely to win so you shouldn't be betting more. Stick to Kelly and you'll be much better off.

Thank you for your responses.  It is nice to have intellectual conversation about psychology of sports gambling for a change.

To your first point...betting halftime lines based on original is far from an exact science but I do bet it predicated on the 1 fact that odds maker have all the information to do their jobs well.  I primarily focus on totals because I feel there is more mathematical certainty that goes into those lines based on reliable averages.  
Now if a 146 total ( uconn / nova from monday ) is 22-21 at half with a 2nd half total of 75 giving me a total of 118 I view it simply as I have a 26 pt discount, or advantage from the player that bet the game before it started.  It may not be exact science, but I know that at halftime if you had the choice you would much rather be holding a ticket that says over 118 than over 146.  Basing my plays solely on the numbers also takes any emotions and limits that amount of pregame time and energy i spend on formulating successful picks.  There is very little bias in it other than knowing the style and pace teams play with....so combine that with an extremely low or high halftime total and it further validates your wager.  I guess for my money...in essence I am betting on the odds maker doing their job.

As to your point about Joe public...it is well taken but you have much more faith in the public than I do.  I know the public to be band wagon jumpers who love to be late to the party.  They will always push those lines up n up n up.  Every In-game for me is a mini story of a market crash waiting to happen...just have to be able to pinpoint the tops n the bottoms.

To your 2nd point...which I hear very loud n clear.  It will not kill me and I will explain why...but at the same time if may not be in my best interest, but I will let you know at the end of my results.

I have 50k bankroll :
my objective is to make 500 / day.  So 1 unit to me = 500

1unit bet = 1%

Round 1
1st progression =   500    
2nd                     =  1000
3rd                      =  2000
4th                      =  4000
5th                      =  8000

  =  15500 is total risk or approx 31 % of bankroll ( not going to kill me to lose 30 % of bankroll to achieve my goal everyday of 500 $ )

     I m in round 10 right now and up a little over 5k in last 10 days... I ll let you know my final say on it down the road....in the back of my head are the words "use the kelly criterion..you ll be better off" haha

GLTY


  


 
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Posted: #722
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

I'm surprised to hear you so positive about live wagers considering your two biggest losing days were due to live wagering. The whole "they're too good to lose" will bite you in the ass, as it already has (Patriots last weekend, Oregon a few days before, Rams last weak of the season, etc.).

You should be hedging your position through live-wagering, not overexposing it. 

or even better yet...creating ML arbitrage or nice size total middles.  There is a definite difference between gambling n speculating
 
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Posted: #723
kiidvegas, chasing is fatalistic and WILL kill you. In your calculations, you not only made a 16% wager which is absurd, you didn't include juice. I don't have time to get into it (again) but check any one of neilsy's threads and I'm probably in there saying the same thing. Basically, the longer you do it, the more likely you are to bust completely. 

As for the live wagering, you only get good lines because Joe Public is still making them for you by betting with their guts. This will evaporate sooner than later, then how will you bet? It's better to base your wagers off of your KSA because that is determined by you, not the bookmakers.
 
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Posted: #724

Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

I'm surprised to hear you so positive about live wagers considering your two biggest losing days were due to live wagering. The whole "they're too good to lose" will bite you in the ass, as it already has (Patriots last weekend, Oregon a few days before, Rams last weak of the season, etc.).

You should be hedging your position through live-wagering, not overexposing it. 

My Live Betting is nothing like I've posted here. I've made posts on the theory of what you should be looking for, but maybe you missed those. I also just stated I wish I had enough capital to create a Hedge Fund, cuz that is all I would ever wager on. I've also stated how football messes my head up cuz I love the game so much and I get way too involved in it. I still can't 100% separate the emotion from the investment in that Sport.

The wager on the Rams was good value. They were the much better team and I believe all my wagers were at +money on that one. Yes, I made a couple too many wagers on them, but I honestly believed they were going to win that game. In my opinion, anytime you can get +money on the better team, in a close game, you should be taking it. Sometimes you go for the "homerun swing" when you know a fastball is being thrown.. and altho you'll hit a lot of homeruns, sometimes a fly lands on your nose and you swing and miss horribly..

I explained what the purpose would be for the Oregon/Auburn game before it started that night, and it was successful.. I got both sides at +money, but then I got greedy and tried for a 2nd steal which didn't work out. I know OilCountry followed it the way I said to do and made some money on that, so that's good.

The Patriots game was just silly. The 1st In-Game wager was fine, but I already admitted before, the Halftime wager was pathetic. Again, my football mentality kicked in and wouldn't let me judge the game the way it was being played; instead my brain was so infatuated with the Patriots and their Home streak, and Brady's streaks, that I refused to let myself believe the Patriots could actually lose that game. That's how I get with NFL sometimes.. I was a complete Square on that game, and it was another valuable lesson learned which I have stored away. I hit close to 60% on the Season for NFL this year, so I know how to cap it. What I don't know how to do is keep my emotion out of it.. and maybe that's the very key statement right there. It's my favorite sport bar none, and I know I probably shouldn't be wagering on it at all (I believe we've had a couple PM's back an forth talking about this) but it's just so hard not to bet on it, cuz it's just so freakin awesome!!

Fear not tho, I've already made a conscious decision the other day to NOT wager a single dime on the 2 games this weekend. I have the Green Bay Future and that is enough. So if for some stupid reason you see NFL on my weekend card, feel free to fade away (and yell at me!!).

My 2 favorite things to Live Bet on are Tennis and Golf (the final round) cuz I have zero emotional attachment to either sport. That is where I've made the most coin. Live Betting the major sports is usually more for recreation, which I know I shouldn't be doing.

Cheers 

Tennis selections for tonight coming right up..

 
 
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Posted: #725

BANKROLL: $9,683.03
OVERALL RECORD: 112-116-8  (49.12%)

INVESTED: $60,877.50
RETURNED: $60,560.53
PROFIT: -$316.97
ROI %: -0.52%

AUSTRALIAN OPEN  -  2nd Round

Parley  (+148)
Mikhail Youzhny  (-714) (men's)
Vera Zvonareva  (-1000) (women's)
Marin Cilic  (-250) (men's)
Nadia Petrova  (-455) (women's)
Samantha Stosur  (-625) (women's)
1.5% $145.25 to win $214.97


Benjamin Becker To Win  (+150)
2% $193.66 to win $290.49

Jelena Jankovic To Win  (-154)
2.5% $242.08 to win $154.19

Alize Cornet To Win  (+175)
1% $96.83 to win $169.45

Let's hope the good run keeps up, I've been perfect in all my Open selections to date. I hit Becker and Cornet in the 1st Round as nice Dogs but was unable to post here in time for them to count. If I can't post it in time, I don't add it and say I bet it. Will have other sport selections up within the next 2 hours if there are any.

Cheers 

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