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Kreatture's Playbook 2011

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Posted: #826
NCAAB

Syracuse   2nd Half -11.5 (-115)
3% $354.89 to win $308.60
 
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Posted: #827
Nice job Syracuse.. nice job. I liked Seton Hall +12.5 before the game but didn't get it in.. then I make a stupid halftime play..

I'm just having a really miserable day which was completely unrelated to anything here.. but now it's making me even more miserable watching these games.

It's become abundantly clear to me that as long as I have to continue to deal with bullshit crap in my mundane 9-5 life, I'll continue to be inconsistent doing this. It's time for a change of scenery..

Shutting it down and going to watch a movie.. see you tomorrow.

 
 
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Posted: #828

The last couple days are nothing to worry about.  Bad days come in bunches.  Lower the percentages a little and you will come out ahead.   Good luck!

 
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Posted: #829
I would tend to agree.  Maybe focus on the sports where your capping is strong right now.  In college hoops you are always solid.  Well, maybe the in-game bet aside, but I think that was more of a reaction to the overall picture.
 
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Posted: #830

Adjusting the percentages isn't a problem cuz the bet amounts are automatically lowered with a lower Bankroll. You should always play the % you believe the play is valued at.

The problem is in playing the plays I originally cap, which I haven't been doing cuz my life is too distracted with crap right now. The only college plays last night should have been Connecticut MoneyLine and Ohio State -8.. but I made the mistake of looking at others opinions and morons who thought Purdue actually stood a chance.

I'm a month into this now and I've begun a detailed analysis of all the plays in spreadsheet format, broken into sport-by-sport / percentage breakdown / type of wager. My time has been pressed lately tho, so it's only half way done. Expecting a blizzard tomorrow and a good chance of everything being shut down for the day. Hopefully.. so then I can complete things.

Cheers 

 
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Posted: #831

Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

BANKROLL: $11,829.63
OVERALL RECORD: 134-137-8  (49.45%)

INVESTED: $69,103.85
RETURNED: $70,933.48
PROFIT: +$1,829.63
ROI %: +2.65%


NHL

Florida Panthers  ML (+120) (OT included) 
1% $118.30 to win $141.96

Buffalo Sabres/Ottawa Senators  Under 5 (+130)   (push)
3% $354.89 to win $461.36

Toronto Maple Leafs  ML (+185) (OT included) 
2% $236.59 to win $437.69

Chicago Blackhawks  -0.5 (-116) (regulation) 
3% $354.89 to win $305.94

Phoenix Coyotes  -0.5 (-121) 
2% $236.59 to win $195.53

NCAAB

Kansas Jayhawks  -7.5 (-101) 
2% $236.59 to win $234.25

Connecticut Huskies  +5 (-103) 
3% $354.89 to win $344.55

Virginia Tech Hokies  -3 (-102) 
4% $473.19 to win $463.91

Syracuse   2nd Half -11.5 (-115) 
3% $354.89 to win $308.60

 
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Posted: #832

BANKROLL: $10,423.40
OVERALL RECORD: 136-143-9  (48.75%)

INVESTED: $71,824.67
RETURNED: $72,248.07
PROFIT: +$423.40
ROI %: +0.59%

Ridiculous..

 
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Posted: #833

I should just play my Ultimate Race picks.. off to a good start at 13-7, trying to improve on my 295th place finish last race.

Easily my favorite contest on Covers.

 
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Posted: #834
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

Adjusting the percentages isn't a problem cuz the bet amounts are automatically lowered with a lower Bankroll. You should always play the % you believe the play is valued at.

The problem is in playing the plays I originally cap, which I haven't been doing cuz my life is too distracted with crap right now. The only college plays last night should have been Connecticut MoneyLine and Ohio State -8.. but I made the mistake of looking at others opinions and morons who thought Purdue actually stood a chance.

I'm a month into this now and I've begun a detailed analysis of all the plays in spreadsheet format, broken into sport-by-sport / percentage breakdown / type of wager. My time has been pressed lately tho, so it's only half way done. Expecting a blizzard tomorrow and a good chance of everything being shut down for the day. Hopefully.. so then I can complete things.

Cheers 

Here's to blizzard's and getting rid of crap in your life!

 

 
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Posted: #835
Don't forget that it's a grind... I get caught up in my losing days too much as well. There's always another day! I have an interview today and am extremely nervous, more nervous than any bet has ever made me!
 
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Posted: #836

Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

Don't forget that it's a grind... I get caught up in my losing days too much as well. There's always another day! I have an interview today and am extremely nervous, more nervous than any bet has ever made me!

The only thing that makes me that nervous is a sweet pair of legs in a short little skirt, with dark eyes you could get lost in.. 

I'm feeling much better today.. it has got easier to forget about a bad night than what it used to be like. I find it's a lot easier to forget about it when you don't really need the money in your account. You just accept what is there now and move on knowing you will be able to add to it. Last year when I was in between jobs I felt much stress and it was much harder to bounce back.. always thought I had to get it back right away which put me right in that Gambler's Mentality. What a horrible feeling that is..

I'm cranking out some oldtime Waylon Jennings (much different than my usual R&B, Pop-Hip-Hop!) right now as I go over a few games. Not really liking a damn thing tonight on the ice or pro hardwood.. possibly 1 or 2 college hoops plays and some tennis tonight, that will be all.

Pretty bummed Nadal lost to Ferrer.. I was waiting for the next round to take Andy Murray to knock him out. Murray will favored now and that stinks..

Good Luck on your interview, hope it goes as you want it too.

Cheers 

 
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Posted: #837
BANKROLL: $10,423.40
OVERALL RECORD: 136-143-9  (48.75%)

INVESTED: $71,824.67
RETURNED: $72,248.07
PROFIT: +$423.40
ROI %: +0.59%


NCAAB

Villanova Wildcats  -5.5 (-110)
3% $312.70 to win $284.27


Texas Longhorns  -4.5 (-110)
1.5% $156.35 to win $142.14


NBA

Philadelphia 76ers  -3.5 (-105)
2.5% $260.59 to win $248.18


NHL

Boston Bruins  -0.5 (-132)
2% $208.47 to win $157.93
 
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Posted: #838
AUSTRALIAN OPEN  -  SEMI-FINALS

Parley  (+124)
Kim Clijsters  (-167)
Roger Federer  (-250)
2.5% $260.59 to win $323.13

If you're around that late for the Federer match you can play these as Singles. I won't be, so I'm putting them in a Parley.

Not planning on watching any games tonight, other than periodic check-ins.. so there won't be any In-Game or Halftime plays tonight.

Cheers 
 
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Posted: #839
Hey Kreatture,

I get a feeling that you are frustrated over the past few days with your results, sometimes the best thing to do is take a few days off of sports and then come back.  I usually find that one is much sharper after a small layoff...
 
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Posted: #840
Watching Dallas play Edmonton on TSN right now.  I realize it's only Edmonton, but they look really solid.  Fast, disciplined, and focussed.  They are obviously buying 100% into the game plan and are a team that might do some damage in the playoffs.  Kinda what I thought LA would do.
 
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Posted: #841
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:


BANKROLL: $10,423.40
OVERALL RECORD: 136-143-9  (48.75%)

INVESTED: $71,824.67
RETURNED: $72,248.07
PROFIT: +$423.40
ROI %: +0.59%


NCAAB

Villanova Wildcats  -5.5 (-110)    
3% $312.70 to win $284.27


Texas Longhorns  -4.5 (-110)    
1.5% $156.35 to win $142.14


NBA

Philadelphia 76ers  -3.5 (-105)    
2.5% $260.59 to win $248.18


NHL

Boston Bruins  -0.5 (-132)    
2% $208.47 to win $157.93


BANKROLL: $10,658.95
OVERALL RECORD: 139-144-9  (49.12%)

INVESTED: $72,762.78
RETURNED: $73,421.73
PROFIT: +$658.95


3 up and 1 down but the big investment bites the dust in shocking fashion. This would have been a 4% play if the spread was just 1 point lower so I'll consider myself fortunate just to lose the 3%. I currently have Villanova penciled into the Final Four on my March Madness Bracket so this result is particularly surprising to me. I guess I can remove them from that slot after this effort. These teams simply can not afford to lose these type of match-ups. On the other side, Texas looked very impressive tonight as they led wire-to-wire. 
That's it for tonight, an early finish for once. Just the tennis parley left with the Clijsters match set to begin shortly and Federer goes much later tonight.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN  -  SEMI-FINALS

Parley  (+124)
Kim Clijsters  (-167)
Roger Federer  (-250)
2.5% $260.59 to win $323.13


See you tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #842
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:



BANKROLL: $10,658.95
OVERALL RECORD: 139-144-9  (49.12%)

INVESTED: $72,762.78
RETURNED: $73,421.73
PROFIT: +$658.95


AUSTRALIAN OPEN  -  SEMI-FINALS

Parley  (+124)    
Kim Clijsters  (-167)
Roger Federer  (-250)
2.5% $260.59 to win $323.13


BANKROLL: $10,398.36
OVERALL RECORD: 139-145-9  (48.94%)

INVESTED: $73,023.37
RETURNED: $73,421.73
PROFIT: +$398.36

I am scared to get out of bed today after waking to find Federer was demolished in straight sets, for surely this must mean the End of the World is near..

On a plus note, we're getting lots of snow and ice pellets, a big 'ol frozen mess! Most things are shut down, it's a snow day! So I'm going back to sleep for a few hours and then I'll enjoy a much needed relaxing day off.

I was thinking about taking Andy Murray to beat Federer in the Finals before, and now with Roger ousted the door is open. So I just locked these in now. This is Murray's time.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN  -  SEMI-FINALS

Set Betting
Andy Murray wins 3-0  (+110)
2% $207.97 to win $228.77


FUTURE - TO WIN MEN'S FINAL

Andy Murray  (+160)
3% $311.95 to win $499.12
 
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Posted: #843
Go Murray!
 
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Posted: #844

I watched part of the game.  I turned it on to see of Federer was hurt, because he had been leading 5-2 in the second set before losing the next five games straight to lose the set 7-5.  Didn't seem possible, something had to be wrong.  In the end, it was just Djokovic schooling him, making him work for every single point.

Sometimes I miss players like Connors, who took losing very seriously.  With Federer you never know if he is winning or losing.

A bit surprised you have Murray to win it all.  I watched Djokovich crush Berdych last Tuesday; he seems to be on a roll.  What makes you favour Murray?

 
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Posted: #845
Quote Originally Posted by mickjam:

I watched part of the game.  I turned it on to see of Federer was hurt, because he had been leading 5-2 in the second set before losing the next five games straight to lose the set 7-5.  Didn't seem possible, something had to be wrong.  In the end, it was just Djokovic schooling him, making him work for every single point.

Sometimes I miss players like Connors, who took losing very seriously.  With Federer you never know if he is winning or losing.

A bit surprised you have Murray to win it all.  I watched Djokovich crush Berdych last Tuesday; he seems to be on a roll.  What makes you favour Murray?



I'm watching the Federer match right now.. just went 5-2 Federer in 2nd Set, I guess this is where the collapse begins.. surprising cuz he looks in complete control right now.

Roger is a constant Professional.. not a hothead like Connors.

"A bit surprised you have Murray to win it all.  I watched Djokovich crush Berdych last Tuesday; he seems to be on a roll.  What makes you favour Murray?"

I've watched Murray crush everyone..Until his last match, no one had yet to take 4 games off him in a single set. While Djokovic has been almost as impressive, Murray looks more focused than I've ever seen him and Djokovic will have to play just as perfect as he did vs. Federer to beat him. I don't think he will.. and we're getting good plus money to further increase our value.
 
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Posted: #846
BANKROLL: $10,398.36
OVERALL RECORD: 139-145-9  (48.94%)

INVESTED: $73,023.37
RETURNED: $73,421.73
PROFIT: +$398.36


AUSTRALIAN OPEN  -  SEMI-FINALS

Set Betting
Andy Murray wins 3-0  (+110)
2% $207.97 to win $228.77


FUTURE - TO WIN MEN'S FINAL

Andy Murray  (+160)
3% $311.95 to win $499.12


NBA

Parley  (+273)
Dallas Mavericks  -6.5
Houston/Dallas Over 204.5
2% $207.97 to win $567.76

Parley  (+265)
Boston Celtics  -4.5
Boston/Portland  Under 182.5 
2% $207.97 to win $551.12

Dallas Mavericks  1st Half -3.5  (-102)
1% $103.98 to win $101.94

Boston Celtics  1st Half -2.5  (-103)
1% $103.98 to win $100.95


There will be 2nd Half plays on both these teams for 2% each, if the 1st Half loses.
 
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Posted: #847
NCAAB

Utah State Aggies  -9.5 (-105)
1% $103.98 to win $99.03

No further additions. Going to get some dinner then hopefully finish my spreadsheet tonight.

Cheers 

 
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Posted: #848
thx man!
 
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Posted: #849
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:


Roger is a constant Professional.. not a hothead like Connors.


Yeah, I know what you mean.  Honestly, I never liked Connors.  I was a Borg fan, with his huge wooden racket.  That thing was strung so tight you could hear the ping on our crappy old TV!

Thanks for the Murray insight.  I haven't seen him play at all this tourney, so I have no basis for judgement.
 
 
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Posted: #850
Quote Originally Posted by aerojackel:

kreatture

Respect your picks and insights on games and the money management you employ with your selections.  You and dj both talk about making value bets.  (I respect dj's thoughts and picks, mm also).  With all the games available how do you even start off your day of capping?

How do select which games your going to spend some time investigating?  Trying to get better at making my own picks but there can be so much action and variety of plays possible.  How do you finds the gems to really dig down and make a play on?

Thanks - hope you have a bit of time to respond sometime.



Just wanted to bump this forward so I'll remember to finally respond to it.. I haven't forgot.

It's very interesting re-reading this thread from the very beginning.. my mood in my regular life easily transcends into my style and strategy of investments day-to-day here. There's a couple of threads around here based around picking games from how players are feeling and mojo's and such, all very interesting.. maybe you can also figure out which days are good to follow, and good to fade, based on the capper's mindset for a particular day..

The spreadsheet is coming along slowly.. plus I have a headache. It's closer to completion tho. Back to work..


PS. Not sure if watching American Idol is helping my headache or not..
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