Last 10 MLB Over System

Does anyone have a database of how many runs over per game a team went over the total... or the ability to figure out such data in a quick manner at least?

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/team/san-francisco-giants/over-under-results

RommiRommi, that's actually the site that I have been getting my info regarding the total runs over and under the book lines...

Unfortunately, they don't have any previous year's data available there for back-testing...

Looks like the first game bet today is a win... two to go...

3. CLE (18.5) + CWS (38.5) = 57, bet Over 8, win

4. COL (32) + SF (18) = 50, bet Over 7.5, lose

5. MIA (20) + PHI (21) = 41, bet Over 8, win

System at 4-1.

Great job Machinist ...and again, great catch on this

Thanks casheasy. The great thing about winning with a system is that there's very little work to do, just collect the money. :)

System at 4-1.

APR 13

First time I've seen a system game total over 70.

6. CLE (28) + CWS (42.5) = 70.5, bet Over 8.5

https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=game+number+%3E10++and+H+and+p%3Aou+margin+%2B+pp%3Aou+margin+%2B+ppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+pppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+ppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+pppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+ppppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+pppppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+ppppppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+pppppppppp%3Aou+margin+%3E+10+and+op%3Aou+margin+%2B+opp%3Aou+margin+%2B+oppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+opppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+oppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+opppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+oppppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+opppppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+oppppppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+opppppppppp%3Aou+margin+%3E+10+and+p%3Aou+margin+%2B+pp%3Aou+margin+%2B+ppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+pppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+ppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+pppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+ppppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+pppppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+ppppppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+pppppppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+op%3Aou+margin+%2B+opp%3Aou+margin+%2B+oppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+opppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+oppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+opppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+oppppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+opppppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+oppppppppp%3Aou+margin+%2B+opppppppppp%3Aou+margin+%3E+40&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

i tried a backtest. a bit chaotic to read. but it does not look very good. maybe i am missing something.

I'm not sure you can back test this using SDQL.

Thanks for doing all that work orhane, the system doesn't look like a winner...

6. CLE (28) + CWS (42.5) = 70.5, bet Over 8.5, lost

Lost tonight too...

guess it's time to retire it then...

hmm what is wring with my query? i summed up the ou margins for each team vs the bookmakers lines. if both teams are over 10 for the last 10 games and in addition combined over 40 they qualify.

The Miami games from the 11th and 12th (both winners) are missing from the query.  It makes you wonder how many other games are missing from the results.  With that said, you did a hell of a job with trying to get this backtested.  I just think it's an impossible job to try and get 100% accurate results with this.  It's just too much work, and A LOT of numbers.

Machinist, I would try a smaller amount of games, say 6, instead of 10.  Maybe even just 4 or 5.  It's hard to maintain high offensive numbers for long periods of time.  Like anything else in sports, scoring runs, or not scoring many, is streaky.  Teams will go on a scoring binge for a week, then all of a sudden score 4 runs over the next five games.  That's where using a lower number of games might help you take advantage of teams getting on a scoring binge.  You can hit it before it fizzles out.  Just a thought.

 

Thanks bruin95 for noticing some discrepancies with the back test. Perhaps it isn't accurate then.

I may as well keep up with tracking the system for a while, until an accurate back test is done, or the system doesn't show a good profit...

I'll keep the games at 10, both the offensive and defensive number of runs are accounted for, so even if a team isn't batting as well, if they are allowing a high number of runs recently, then that's important to see, and at least 10 games gives the results against a few teams which should average out the results to a certain extent rather than if you just looked at the last 6 or so...

System at 4-2.

APR 14

7. NYM (15) + ARZ (27) = 42, bet Over 9

mabey a 2 game chase would be profitable on this just a thought. 

just to clarify, i did not tried to spoil your system, just wanted to help if possible.

Thanks orhane for trying to help! I had never seen that whole SDQL thing before, it looks very difficult to understand, but I'm sure that it can be a very powerful tool to analyze systems if set up correctly.

Thank you for attempting to use it for this, I wonder if there is anyone who can also try it to see if they get similar results. Any help is much appreciated. :)

7. NYM (15) + ARZ (27) = 42, bet Over 9, win

System at 5-2

At 5-2 the system is at 71.4%, so far.

All system bets have been recorded as $500 picks on my record, and it seems that a win results in going up $500, and a loss means minus $550.

So the system has 5 wins = +$2,500

and 2 losses = -$1100

which totals up to +$1,400 after 7 bets.

No games match the system credentials for April 15, so no plays for today.

Great system

There's nothing wrong with your SDQL orphane.  The reason the Miami/Philadelphia game doesn't show up on the 11th is that Philadelphia had only played 9 games and therefore didn't qualify as a play.

It's true that when I started this system a few days ago that some of the teams had only played 9 games, but I figured that if, within only 9 games, instead of the usual 10, they had still had a total that was at least over 10, and when added to the other team's total it was over 40, that it would be an even better play, because they were able to make it in with less games played.

I knew  that within a short time all of the teams would have played at least 10 games, and I was eager to get the system up and running.

Thank you for checking in to the SDQL staf, but I'm still a little hesitant that it is correct, based on the winning record the system has had over the last few days alone.

The SDQL shows a record of 43-54-3 over the last 100 games played, yet we've had 5-2 over the last 7.

I'll keep tracking it for now.

I like what you're doing here with this and would love to see you keep tracking it. You got me thinking about working on a system like this and I also used the SDQL to come up with a similar system. Do you mind if I post it in this thread? If not I get it, I just don't want to put up something in someone elses thread if they don't want it there.

Thanks BCap888. Feel free to start a new thread about your idea for a system, that way it's record doesn't get mixed up with this one's. Good luck!

APR 16

System at 5-2, +$1400

8. WAS (28.5) + MIA (17) = 45.5, bet Over 6.5

I would be a bit skeptical using those queries.  From my point of view they have their own database they use.  I know a fellow that used it for the nba and results are based on closing line.  For my own purpose I use open from Don Best and close from Sports Options.  Those lines were obtainable to me and the query lines were not.  Now I can not speak for bases but I feel there will be differences.  As an example we both had a system for totals.  He was in the upper 60% range with me doing the same thing via formula based and I was at 31-35 a far cry from 43-23.  Just an opinion nothing more.