Last 10 MLB Over System

It's interesting how when I checked out orhane's original SDQL link again today, I just noticed that it also looks at today's games and has already correctly identified the WAS/MIA game as a system play, before the game has been played.

Just checking my math here.  I have WAS 28.5 and MIA 17 = 45.5 and each team has 10 + today's O/U of 6.5 so the play is Over 6.5.

Did I do that correctly?

Cool.  Now off to try and find a way to automate this.

Just to clarify the system, each team has to, in total, have a minimum of over 10 runs over the book totals in their previous 10 games.

They don't have to be "10 + today's O/U of 6.5", which you may be implying would be over 16.5. I may be misunderstanding your question, but hopefully this will clear things up either way...

Okay, so I am confused.  What do you mean by 'book totals'?

8. WAS (28.5) + MIA (17) = 45.5, bet Over 6.5, win

System at 6-2, +$1900

I think there is an advantage to be had in placing bets with this system as early as possible when the lines come out.

What likely happens is that as the day progresses, a lot of money gets put on the overs for these games, because people see the recent over trends and love betting overs.

Then the books move the O/U line up in response, but you already have the over at a lower number, which helps you win more bets in the long run, than most playing later on.

Good win last night.  Thanks Machinist.

I don't see any plays for today.

Machinist, did you ever look at the Under possibilites and attempt to come up with a system for them?  There would seem, at least currently, to be a lot more Under plays as a lot of teams had very small to negative differentials.

Thanks CanisMajor.

No plays today, right.

I'm sure that there are good Under plays to be made using the exact same system.

For example, yesterday the top Under play was:

SEA (-18.5) + TEX (-18) = -36.5, bet Under 6.5, win

and for Apr 15 the top Under play was:

SEA (-12.5) + TEX (-14) = -26.5, bet Under 8.5, win

and for Apr 14 the top Under play was:

SEA (-8) + TEX (-15.5) = -23.5, bet Under 9, win

and for Apr 13 the top Under play was:

TB (-22.5) + CIN (-10) = -32.5, bet Under 7.5, lost

and for Apr 12 the top Under play was:

TB (-17.5) + CIN (-8.5) = -26 bet Under 7.5, win

and for Apr 11 the top Under play was:

TB (-8.5) + CIN (-5.5) = -14 bet Under 7, win

Hmmmmmm...so that was 5-1 over the last 6 days, not too bad. :)

I think you may be on to something here...

It's interesting...

Orhane, or anyone else, would you be able to do another SDQL for a top Under play of the day, based on the last 10 games total, but this time for "total under the book totals"?

It would seem, based on the last  day sample, that playing the top Under would be a moneymaker.

As orhane's SDQL for this thread's system has shown, it actually lost money over the last 100 games played, so I am eager to find a winning system to replace it. This looks like it may be the one.

Thanks for the question CanisMajor, it looks like we may have a winner here. :)

 

Starting a new system in here based on the top Under play of the day in here:

APR 17

SEA (17.5) + TEX (-21) = -38.5, bet Under 9

Let's see how she goes. :)

That should be:

SEA (-17.5) + TEX (-21) = -38.5, bet Under 9

(forgot the minus in front of SEA number), corrected now.

This is the query I was working on that I posted about, it's for unders.

https://www.sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=H+and+-6%3Cpppppppppp%3Aou+margin%2Bppppppppp%3Aou+margin%2Bpppppppp%3Aou+margin%2Bppppppp%3Aou+margin%2Bpppppp%3Aou+margin%2Bppppp%3Aou+margin%2Bpppp%3Aou+margin%2Bppp%3Aou+margin%2Bpp%3Aou+margin%2Bp%3Aou+margin%2Bopppppppppp%3Aou+margin%2Boppppppppp%3Aou+margin%2Bopppppppp%3Aou+margin%2Boppppppp%3Aou+margin%2Bopppppp%3Aou+margin%2Boppppp%3Aou+margin%2Bopppp%3Aou+margin%2Boppp%3Aou+margin%2Bopp%3Aou+margin%2Bop%3Aou+margin%3C0+and+p%3Aruns%2Bop%3Aruns!%3D12+and+p%3Aruns%2Bop%3Aruns!%3D5+and+3%3Cpp%3Aruns%2Bopp%3Aruns%3C22+and+1%3Cppp%3Aruns%2Boppp%3Aruns%3C19+and+1%3Cpppp%3Aruns%2Bopppp%3Aruns%3C16+and+ppppp%3Aruns%2Boppppp%3Aruns%3C19+and+pppppp%3Aruns%2Bopppppp%3Aruns%3C19+and+0%3Cppppppp%3Aruns%2Boppppppp%3Aruns%3C18+and+3%3Cpppppppp%3Aruns%2Bopppppppp%3Aruns%3C18+and+ppppppppp%3Aruns%2Boppppppppp%3Aruns!%3D6+and+0%3Cpppppppppp%3Aruns%2Bopppppppppp%3Aruns%3C20+and+total!%3D10+and+-6%3Cou+streak%2Bo%3Aou+streak+and+ou+streak%2Bo%3Aou+streak!%3D-4&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

The difference with this Under system is that there are no qualifiers, it's just the game with the teams with the most total runs under the book totals in the last 10 games.

I suppose that on a day with only a few games to pick from that one wouldn't play, unless there is a game with very negative totals to choose from. It would probably be a fluid thing, variable, and up to the person picking the game.

That's what would make this system hard to back test in that there aren't exact qualifiers like +10 and +40 in the Over system...

But anyways, I'm going to track it for a while...

Thanks BCap888, I'll look into it.

BCap888, it looks like that system you posted had a 56-39-5 record:

56 Unders = +28,000

39 Overs = -$21,450

= +$6,550 profit

What were the parameters for betting?

Not sure what you mean?

Just wondering what the qualifiers are for the games you bet on with your system?

Why are those games in particular bet on to go under?

I'm new at this whole SDQL thing so it's hard for me to look at the query and figure out exactly what it means...

Oh I gotcha.

It's similar to your idea but instead of 40 it's if their margins fall between 0 and -6. And then it filters out the unprofitable levels from each of the past 10 games, sort of like how you did with the both must be over 10 clause. For instance the last one is 10 games ago the total of both teams' runs has to be between 0 and 20. If the two teams in their 10th game ago combined for more than 20 runs they were thrown out. There are filters like that for each of the past 10 games in order to optimize the ROI. Hopefully that made sense.

Sounds good BCap888, with the +$6,550 profit over the last 100 games in the system, it looks like a moneymaker. Feel free to begin your own thread tracking it if you'd like.

Just curious, what do you think of the under system started today? Any way of doing an SDQL with it?

On a side note, there must be a way to use that SDQL thingy to make some serious cash. I mean, put a supercomputer to the task to try out every combo of parameters in every kind of way and sort according to the most profitable ways and you've got the gold pot at the end of the rainbow. :)

BCapp,

You seem to be great with the queries.  As I am trying to automate this system via Excel, do you have a query that would return the last 10 O/U differentials for each team?

Again, not interested in testing historical results, just want to see each teams Diff over last 10 games.

Is this possible?

Thanks,

Canis