Just checking my math here. I have WAS 28.5 and MIA 17 = 45.5 and each team has 10 + today's O/U of 6.5 so the play is Over 6.5.
Did I do that correctly?
and each team has 10 + today's O/U of 6.5
Just to clarify the system, each team has to, in total, have a minimum of over 10 runs over the book totals in their previous 10 games.
They don't have to be "10 + today's O/U of 6.5", which you may be implying would be over 16.5. I may be misunderstanding your question, but hopefully this will clear things up either way...
Cool. Now off to try and find a way to automate this.
Okay, so I am confused. What do you mean by 'book totals'?
I think there is an advantage to be had in placing bets with this system as early as possible when the lines come out.
What likely happens is that as the day progresses, a lot of money gets put on the overs for these games, because people see the recent over trends and love betting overs.
Then the books move the O/U line up in response, but you already have the over at a lower number, which helps you win more bets in the long run, than most playing later on.
Good win last night. Thanks Machinist.
I don't see any plays for today.
Machinist, did you ever look at the Under possibilites and attempt to come up with a system for them? There would seem, at least currently, to be a lot more Under plays as a lot of teams had very small to negative differentials.
No plays today, right.
I'm sure that there are good Under plays to be made using the exact same system.
For example, yesterday the top Under play was:
SEA (-18.5) + TEX (-18) = -36.5, bet Under 6.5, win
and for Apr 15 the top Under play was:
SEA (-12.5) + TEX (-14) = -26.5, bet Under 8.5, win
and for Apr 14 the top Under play was:
SEA (-8) + TEX (-15.5) = -23.5, bet Under 9, win
and for Apr 13 the top Under play was:
TB (-22.5) + CIN (-10) = -32.5, bet Under 7.5, lost
and for Apr 12 the top Under play was:
TB (-17.5) + CIN (-8.5) = -26 bet Under 7.5, win
and for Apr 11 the top Under play was:
TB (-8.5) + CIN (-5.5) = -14 bet Under 7, win
Hmmmmmm...so that was 5-1 over the last 6 days, not too bad. :)
I think you may be on to something here...
It's interesting...
Orhane, or anyone else, would you be able to do another SDQL for a top Under play of the day, based on the last 10 games total, but this time for "total under the book totals"?
It would seem, based on the last day sample, that playing the top Under would be a moneymaker.
As orhane's SDQL for this thread's system has shown, it actually lost money over the last 100 games played, so I am eager to find a winning system to replace it. This looks like it may be the one.
Thanks for the question CanisMajor, it looks like we may have a winner here. :)
The difference with this Under system is that there are no qualifiers, it's just the game with the teams with the most total runs under the book totals in the last 10 games.
I suppose that on a day with only a few games to pick from that one wouldn't play, unless there is a game with very negative totals to choose from. It would probably be a fluid thing, variable, and up to the person picking the game.
That's what would make this system hard to back test in that there aren't exact qualifiers like +10 and +40 in the Over system...
But anyways, I'm going to track it for a while...
Just wondering what the qualifiers are for the games you bet on with your system?
Why are those games in particular bet on to go under?
I'm new at this whole SDQL thing so it's hard for me to look at the query and figure out exactly what it means...
BCapp,
You seem to be great with the queries. As I am trying to automate this system via Excel, do you have a query that would return the last 10 O/U differentials for each team?
Again, not interested in testing historical results, just want to see each teams Diff over last 10 games.
Is this possible?
Thanks,
Canis
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