okay, so like i said, i've long held the belief that you should be betting over 5 and under anything above 5, but i never knew how to apply it until now. here are the numbers. i have them year by year if you want them, but i think the total numbers over the last 4 years are pretty self-explanatory.
A 69 (57.5%)
B 26 (21.67%)
C 18 (15%)
D 4 (3.33%)
E 2 (1.67%)
F 1 (.83%)
that means that 79.17% wins in A or B game, 94.17% A-C, and you win 97.5% by D game.
there have 2 been 2 D games in 2 of those years, and only ever 1 E game per year. the F game occurred in a year that did not include any other D or E games.
there are other options, and I have the numbers for those as well.
the next best one is just betting unders. i say the next best, because that's my opinion, because i came up with the other strategy. also, there are more A game wins playing my system. slightly, but still. in terms of finishing all chases quicker, the unders are better.
betting unders:
A 59 (49.17%)
B 31 (25.83%)
C 24 (20%)
D 4 (3.33)
E 1 (.83%)
F 1 (.83%)
meaning 75% in A or B, 95% in A-C, 98.33% in A-D
for comparison, if you bet overs, there were 2 losses (G game). otherwise the numbers are pretty good.
A 61 (50.83%)
B 27 (22.88%)
C 17 (14.41%)
D 10 (8.47%)
E 1 (.85%)
F 2 (1.69%)
G 2 (1.69%)
obviously, the other 2 systems are much better.
the last one i tried was taken from Dan's NFL o/u opposite system (where you bet the opposite result of what occurred in the first game of the season), but imho it's more complicated, because you either have to a. double bet or b. skip bets because the bets for each team conflict. i don't like it, but i backtested it, and the numbers are pretty good (this is only really if you're double betting, because i wasn't about to go back day by day for a system i don't plan to run):
A 58 (48.33%)
B 41 (34.17%)
C 14 (11.67%)
D 2 (1.67%)
E 3 (2.5%)
F 2 (1.67%)
so, there are some good options here, and i actually might try running both the o5/u5.5 system and under system in conjunction with each other (if you win on the over 5 on A game, bet the under in a 6 game chase).
that's what i got, what do you think?
also, fyi, with regard to Dan's NFL opposite o/u system, i did the numbers the same way for NFL, and came up with no losses (i think i went back even further than 4 years) on the over instead, so that's what i've been playing since week 1. it's making me nervous, because the numbers haven't been hitting as high as they usually would, but i wonder if that's just my book... but i'm down to 7 teams on D bets for weeks 4 and 5. usually there would only be 2 or 3 teams left by now. i have to assume that the books are adjusting for higher expected rates of pass interference. but i'm going to play it out. i think i have 4 teams this week and the other three in week 5 after their bye.
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