Lets Try This

Question

Alright so im sure people have thought of this before but screw it. So in mlb you can pair runline with underdog moneyline and bet so that you're sorta arbing but not really. You lose if the favorite wins by a single run.

Imma try experimenting with this and a 4 game chase.
So lets start using a progression of 100, 300, 700, 1500....so my starting bankroll is 2600. Im gonna try tracking for the rest of the season.

First Play 5/26/14

HOU vs KC, (1) HOU ML +143, (2) KC -1.5 at +143
Bet 1: 50 to win 121.5
Bet 2: 50 to win 121.5

DrChase · Answer

Alright so im sure people have thought of this before but screw it. So in mlb you can pair runline with underdog moneyline and bet so that you're sorta arbing but not really. You lose if the favorite wins by a single run.

Imma try experimenting with this and a 4 game chase.
So lets start using a progression of 100, 300, 700, 1500....so my starting bankroll is 2600. Im gonna try tracking for the rest of the season.

First Play 5/26/14

HOU vs KC, (1) HOU ML +143, (2) KC -1.5 at +143
Bet 1: 50 to win 121.5
Bet 2: 50 to win 121.5

DrChase · Answer

Hou blows em out time for play 2.New bankroll: 2621.50, net &#x2B;21.50New Base unit: 2621.50 / 26 = 100.82Play #2 5/27/14SD vs ARI, (1) SD ML &#x2B;118, (2) ARI -1.5 &#x2B;160Bet 1: 54.84 to win 119.55Bet 2: 45.98 to win 119.55Fair Enough?!

Bart_ · Answer

How do you pick which game you play?

DrChase · Answer

I guess a couple things can be done, picking the game with the highest o/u total would be a starting point as it would hypothetically allow for a game with a larger margin than 1 run. This may already be factored into the lines however so idk thats why im testing it real time. You could also do some handicapping and select a team that is listed as an underdog on the moneyline but you think has a good chance of winning.

I notice that the progression must also be changed since i wanna win about .2 of my base unit each bet placed. I think a total bankroll of around 3500 will be enough for three straight losses which im skeptical is enough but we'll see if it busts by the end of the season.

Updated starting bankroll 3500
Current bankroll prior to play 2 - 3521.50.

DrChase · Answer

Now that i think about it this just doesnt lend itself to a chase system.. by the third bet you'd have to stake way too much...still i think this approach has potential if you could comeup with certain criteria to filter out 1 run games
Something to think about...

DrChase · Answer

I think a bankroll of about 6000 will be enough to handle three losses so that will be the new test bankroll.

SD won so the net winnings are +41.05

Updated bankroll: 6041.05..../60 = new base unit of about 100.70

Play #3: 5/28/14

COL(ML) vs PHI (-1.5) odds:+101 & +192

(1) 59.65 to win 119.90

(2) 41.06 to win 119.90

Lets get it

DrChase · Answer

Philly covers so 3-0 so farBankroll: 6060.95, net: &#x2B; 60.95New base unit = 101Will update with play 4 soon prolly the sf vs stl game 5/29/14

DrChase · Answer

SF &#x2B;121 STL -1.5 at &#x2B;16555.07 to win 121.7145.93 to win 121.71Eaaaaasy money

DrChase · Answer

Sergio freaking Romo pulls off the save, giants grab the win good stuff...

YTD net: +82.66

New base unit for tomorrows play: 6082.66/60 = 101.37

Following this the rest of the season, I'm thinking at least an 80% return is possible

DrChase · Answer

Note: Ive been putting "to win" by which i mean you will receive that after the win...

Play #5

(1) Tex (ml, +160) vs (2) Wash (-1.5, +131)

1: Bet 47.69 to receive back 124
2: Bet 53.68 to receive back 124

Total wagered: 101.37 will profit 22.63 as long as washington doesnt win by exactly one run...

LEggooo

DrChase · Answer

Eaasy winner washington wins by 7No losses yet, starting roll was 6000 currently at 6105.29New base unit: 101.75Play #6: (1) Pit ml &#x2B;133 vs (2) La -1.5 at &#x2B;154 Bet 1: 53.07 to receive 123.65 Bet 2: 48.68 to recieve 123.65Total wagered: 101.75 will profit 21.90 as long as dodgers dont win by exactly one run...YOu do like making money, right?!? Lets get it

casheasy · Answer

Wow this is dumb. For obvious reasons given probability and risk and return on investment.... Ok I said it.....but now having said that, I always like interesting attempts at systems and I like that you prefaced everything with "I'm sure this has been done but screw it...."

I'm going to root for you and hope you make a small profit and quit while you're ahead. I will say this. You waited until all the one run games occurred, which they did during the first month and a half at a record rate. So I like your chances to do well for a short time.

By the way, saying "Wow this is dumb," is not an insult to you. Just a friendly way of trying to evaluate this system. Good luck and win some

DrChase · Answer

Haha of course...the risk is high return not great but lol look at all these chase systems that inundate this forum...lets not think that all of them are outstandingly successful

Im just tryna experiment with something outside the box man and along the way maybe pick up some parameters to screen games and such

Follow along itll be a helluva ride bruh

DrChase · Answer

Play #7 6-1-14Ytd: &#x2B;127.19(1) Cin ml &#x2B;124 vs (2) Ari -1.5 &#x2B;1611: 54.96 to receive 123.112: 47.17 to receive 123.11

DrChase · Answer

Play #8 6-2-14Ytd: &#x2B;148.17CWS ml at &#x2B;186 and LAD runline -1.5 @ &#x2B;11644.09 and 53.38 respectivelyTotal wager 102.47 will profit 23.63DoNe

DrChase · Answer

Play # 9Ytd: &#x2B;171.80Phi ml at &#x2B;171 and Was -1.5 @ &#x2B;115

DrChase · Answer

45.50 and 57.35 respectivelyTo receive 123.31 either wayProfit will be &#x2B;20.45

bruin95 · Answer

I wouldn&#39;t chase this.  Accept the loss when it comes and move on to the next game.   You&#39;re only going to lose around $100 with a loss.  You&#39;ve already have more than that in profit.  No need to chase and never be able to recover from a bad streak.   It&#39;s a long season.

DrChase · Answer

Gotcha...might have to reconsider but ill tackle that once a loss happensYtd: &#x2B;192.25New base - 103.20Play 10 Nyy ml &#x2B;130      49.86Oak -1.5 &#x2B; 115. 53.34Profit of 11.48 either wayEasy

bruin95 · Answer

Stupid question,  I&#39;m usually pretty good with numbers, but I just cannot figure out how to determine what to bet on each team is that the profit is equal no matter who wins.  I&#39;m sure it&#39;s something really simple, but I just can&#39;t figure it out.   What&#39;s the formula?

DrChase · Answer

Yea dude the bets are divided in such a way that there is the profit either way as long as the favorite does not win by exactly one run...

Theres arb calcs online that you can use that are helpful in determining bet sizing.

From wikipedia (stake 2) = (stake 1) * odds1/odds2, odds in decimal form. Then you can manipulate bets so that the total wagered is what you want.

DrChase · Answer

Ytd: &#x2B;$203.73New base unit (total wager) : 103.40Play 11Ari (ml, &#x2B;117) vs Col (-1.5, &#x2B;154)Bet 55.76 to receive $121Bet 47.64 to receive $121Either way profit &#x2B;17.60DoNe

DrChase · Answer

New wager 103.69Stl ml &#x2B;143 and Tor -1.5 @ &#x2B;142Bet 51.74 and 51.95 respectively Profit either way of 22.03Fair enough?

DrChase · Answer

Yts: &#x2B;243.36New wager: 104.05Hou ml &#x2B;105 and Min -1.5 @ &#x2B;175Bet 59.61 and 44.44, profit &#x2B; 18.15 either way

LETHIMCAP · Answer

I have seen this tried before. Couple 1 runs games will beat you up

Lets Try This

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