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MLB 2010 Labouchere Totals Chase

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Posted: #26

Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

I didn't see a previous post for Mets game 1. When did that happen?

April 8th

 
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Posted: #27

Nice night last night winning 10.6 units..hopefully this is the start of the climb !

YTD   28 Chases Banked = 56 units

17 chases outstanding

Exposure: 47.5units (down 4.7u and 42.8u in play)

April 14 plays

KC/Detroit  Over 9  -110     4.4u to win  4u

Yankees/LA Over  10 -110  8.2u to win 7.4u

Milwuakee Over  *** no line yet**  to win 4.1 u

Pitts/SF Over  8.5 -109    4.4u to win  4u

Cincy/Fla  Over 9 -115   4.6u to win 4u

Houston Under  8.5  -120  2.4u to win 2u

Atlanta Over  7 -110  3.7u to win 3.3u

Oak/Seattle Under 7.5  -110   5.7u to win 5.1u

Arizona/LA Over 8 -110 4.4u to win 4u

 

 

 
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Posted: #28
Good work, Neil, I'm following you here while I work on my own tracking spreadsheet.  Good luck.
 
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Posted: #29
n trying to understand/track the plays so I have a few more questions.
This is what I have to understand it in my terms. does it look right to you?
Please explain the oa/sm chases. I'm lost on that one.

Thanks for posting.

AA kcr/det o9 4.0 (AA means game 1 for both kcr 2.0unit and det 2.0unit)
AC nyy/laa o10 7.4u (game 1 for nyy 2u and game 3 for laa 5.4u)
B mil o11 4.1u (game 2 for 4.1u)
AA pit/sfg o8.5 4.0u
AA cin/fla o9.0 4.0u
A hou u8.5 2.0u
B atl o7 3.3u (2.3u loss on 4/9 + to win 1.0u)
AC oa/sm u7.5 (oa 2u+????????sm)  4/11 loss, is tex still pending?
AA adb/lad o8 4.0u
 
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Posted: #30
Neil

You say:

     YTD   28 Chases Banked = 56 units

     17 chases outstanding

     Exposure: 47.5units (down 4.7u and 42.8u in play)

Does this imply that your at-this-minute gain is 56 - 4.7 = 51.3 units?  ie. if you quit today you'd be ahead that many units?
 
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Posted: #31

MIlwuakee line is O 10.5 -110   4.6u to win 4.1u

 
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Posted: #32

Smit..best thing to do is not think of this in terms of a Martingale, i.e there is not A game B games C games..etc. .there is just a labby line for each team ,,when a team clears its line you start them a new one..the unit amount is just the 2 outside numbers on that team line

bomb . if i stopped right now i am down 4.7units .. but a lines result is final either when a) its cleared or b) the season ends and its not cleared  . (or god forbid c) the lines get to big and i go busto ...) .. much the same way that when people post their martingale results it is considered final only when the chase ends ..hope that makes sense..

 
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Posted: #33
Neil, not sure I follow... you are down the 4.7 units in the Lab lines you're currently playing, yes?  But if you started with 100 units, you're now at 100 + 56 - 4.7 before making today's wagers, is that right?
 
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Posted: #34

how big does the streak have to get and how many units does it take before you go busto lol ?? rounded numbers are ok ... i jus want to work out the numbers before i get myself in to deep

 
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Posted: #35
[Quote: Originally Posted by payday000]

how big does the streak have to get and how many units does it take before you go busto lol ?? rounded numbers are ok ... i jus want to work out the numbers before i get myself in to deep

[/Quote

dunno ..like i said form the start, that is the one aspect i am not sure of .. right now i am going with 100 units ..ideally, as Eagle said earlier in this thread..the system replenishes itself as it goes.and slowly climbs..never requiring more than 100 units.. its hard to tell for sure with so many different lines all at once... that is the point of my "exposed" numbers.. to always no exaclty how many units i am in for. .so far its never been more than half my roll...time will tell..

 
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Posted: #36

thanks for the response ... hopefully this works out well with you until the end of the season

 

 
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Posted: #37
 
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Posted: #38

While  I am waiting for lines on the Cleveland/Texas and Milwuakee/Cubs game ... a few notes and obseervations so far..

- When I backtested the entire season last year, there was in the neighbourhood of 500-600 lines cleared.. with each line cleared earning 2 units.  There were only 2 teams that ended the season with an uncleared line, the biggest loss of which was 22 units. Note, this team did clear several lines before this..the uncleared line prob started late august or so. I didn't start any new line after sept 15...

that being said the optimistic view is that so far i have been playing 8 days and have cleared 35 lines  ..so averaging 4.4 lines per day.. my playing window for this system is approx 160 days..putting me on pace to clear 704 lines. ,... now the pessimistic view would be thats all fine and dandy, but the fact is after 8 days i am down 2.7 units .. However this doesn't concern  me yet..since the system has been trending up since being down 17 units the first 3 days. .and has made back 14 units the 5 days since... I am hoping this upward trend continues..  as lines continue clearing..gonna be some bigger bets today..a good day could out me well in the black !

And to answer blackbombs questions - when i say i am down 2.7 units..that is exactly what i mean  ,,i.e ..as of right now, before placing todays bets i have 97.3 units left of the 100 i started with.

 
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Posted: #39
one other thing i meant to add.. One thing that continues to concern me about this system is whether or not 100 units is enough ..we will see..
 
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Posted: #40
Neil, thanks for the clarification.
 
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Posted: #41

YTD  35 Chases banked = 70 units

Actual Profit = -2.7 units

Exposure = 47.3u   (down 2.7 u and 44.6u in play)

April 15 plays

Cleveland/Texas  Under 8.5 -115  7.1u to win 6.1u

Houston/St.Louis  Under  9 -125  5u to win 4u

Milwuakee/Chicago Over  11.5 -115     7.3u to win 6.3u

Washington/Philly  Over 9.5 -118   9.6u to win  8.1u

Mets/Colorado Over 9  -118  8.3u to win  7u

Atlanta Over 7.5 +105   3.2u to win 3.3u

Arizona/Dodgers  Over 7.5 +108   4.1u tw 4.4u

Baltimore/Oakland - conflicting bets  Balt O and Oak U ..wont bet , but will add the results to the teams lines

WTF was with that Milwuakee line..went from 11 -125 ..to 11.5 -110 ...to 11.5 -115 in about 5 minutes..

 
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Posted: #42
Neil,
I don't understand how you have yourself down 2.7 units with 35 chases banked?  By your unit numbers, I've got you at +32.9 in the last 5 days?

Not sure what I am missing?

Thanks
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by CInderellaStory:

Neil,
I don't understand how you have yourself down 2.7 units with 35 chases banked?  By your unit numbers, I've got you at +32.9 in the last 5 days?

Not sure what I am missing?

Thanks

your missing the 1st 3 days..   However great night last night..haven't updated ny spreadsheet yet, but i think i picked up about 25 units last night...

 
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Posted: #44
 
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Posted: #45
Good work, Neil.  Congratulations.
 
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Posted: #46

neil,

i will be following and playing this along with you. i have a bankroll of 2,000. so how much would you reccommend i make each unit worth? With such a high exposure everynight, i am think between 20-50 dollars a unit?

 
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Posted: #47
I mean . i have never done this before.. it looked good on paper ..and seems to be doing ok so far... but if you can't afford to lose that 2k ..then maybe wait and see. . I have been using 1% as a unit ..and so far at the most I have had 50% of my roll exposed ..
 
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Posted: #48
I am using a starting roll of $1500.  I am running multiple systems with it.  My labby line with this starts at 2.5-2.5.  So my base unit is $5.  At this point it feels like Im really glad I didnt try something larger because the lines could get out of hand pretty quik if you hit a bad stretch.  I also missed the 1st 3 days of the system.  I am up 21 $5 Units at this point.  Using Neilsy's terminology I am up 42 $2.50 Units.  So far the system is supporting itself nicely, but I dont recommend starting out higher than $5 a base unit if your roll of at least $1500 is supporting multiple systems.  Right now I am comfortable with the plays, but I am monitoring it daily.  As long as it supports itself like it has so far everything will be OK.  If it continues from now on like it has been, then I will really regret not doing more per unit.  Hope this helps.  Keep in mind, I have a conservative long lasting philosophy.  Im not NEAR the gambler I once was and boy has that made all the difference in the world in having success vs being a degenerate loser.
 
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Posted: #49

early game  Houston/Cubs  Under 9-120 ..1.2u to win 1u

rest of the plays in a bit

 
 
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Posted: #50

YTD  41 lines cleared = 82 units

Actual Profit = 22 units

Exposure = 10.5u (32.5u in play - 22u in profit)

** very happy to see the exposure number going down !**

April 16 plays

Houston/Cubs  Under 9 -120  1.2u to win 1u

W.Sox/Cleveland Over 9  +115  2.7u to win 3.1u

Texas/Yankees U 8.5 -105   4.5u to win  4.2u

MIlwuakee/Washington Over 8.5  -125 5u to win 4u

Philly  Over 8 -110  1.1u to win 1u

LA/Toronto   Under 8.5 -102   2.8u to win  2.7u

Tampa Bay Over 9  +105  2.2 u to win  2.3u

Atlanta Over 8.5 -120   1.2u to win 1u

KC over 7.5 -102   2.1u to win 2u

St.Louis  Under  8.5 -105  2.1u to win 2u

Oakland Under  7.5 -110 2.2u to win 2u

Arizona Over 7.5 +110 1.9u to win 2u

Dodgers Over 9  -110  2.2u to win 2u

Detroit/Sea Over 7.5 -125    1.3u to win 1u

** note , games where teams have opposite plays ..i bet the difference.. i.e  Houston/Cubs .. Houston Under was to win 2 units..Cubs over was to win 1 units..therefore bet = Under for 1 unit ,,but i update each teams labby line as if each bet was made seperate..(saves juice) ,. .**

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