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MLB 2010 Labouchere Totals Chase

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Posted: #51

YTD - 50 lines cleared = 100 units

Actual Profit = 24.8 units

exposure= 25.2u (about 50 units in play-24.8u profit)

April 17th plays

Texas/Yankees Under 9.5 -115  4.9u to win 4.2u

Houston/Cubs Under to win 1 units **no line yet**

Toronto Over 9 +105 4.2U TO WIN 4.4u

KC over 9 -130   2.6u to win 2u

Bal/Oakland  Under 8  -115  4.6u to win 4u

Mets/St.Louis  Under 8 -120     6.4u to win 5.3u

Dodgers Over  7.5 +105  1.9u to win 2u

Cleveland Under 8.5 -128  2.6u to win 2u

Pittsburg Under to win 3.2u ** no line yet**

Florida/Philly Over 9.5 -125 6.7u to win 5.3u

Tampa Bay Over 9 -105 2.5u to win 2.3u

Atlanta Over 8 -111   2.2u to win 2u

Arizona/San Diego Over 7.5 -123  6.4u to win 5.1u

Detroit Over 7 -139  2.8u to win 2u

GO SENS GO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 
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Posted: #52

tough night last night giving back 11 units..although i think i missed a game or 2 ..will have to double check ..but no time now..as I  got 100 level seats to the Sens game  and its time to drink some beers and get crazy ..

GO SENS GO !!!!!!!!!!!

YTD - 58 lines cleared = 116 units

actual profit  = 13.7units

exposure 33.3u ( betting 40 u - 13.7u in profit)

April 17 plays

W.sox/cleveland  Under 7.5 -105  5.9u to win  5.6u

Milwuakee/Washington Under 9.5  -118   10u to win 8.5 u 

KC/MInny Over 9.5  -110  7.3u to win 6.6 u

Houston Under to win 2u ** no line yet**

Baltimore/Oakland Under 7 +100 4u to win 4u

San Fran/Dodgers Over 8.5 -120 6.3u to win 5.2u

Mets/Stlouis  Under 7.5 -110  4.4u to win 4u

 

 
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Posted: #53

OOPs ..above are april 18th plays.... pre game beers and posting dont mix

GO SENS GO

 
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Posted: #54
Neil, sorry the Sens didn't get it done for you yesterday.

I do appreciate your work on the o/u system and enjoy following it with you.
 
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Posted: #55

Another bad night last night losing 22 units.. just when things were looking good.. -33 units in the past 2 days..

YTD 60 lines cleared = 60 units

Actual Profit = - 8.3 units

exposure =28u 

April 19 plays

Colorado Under 9.5 -115   2.6u to win 2.2u

KC/Tor    Under 9.5 -105  3.4u to win 3.2u

Cubs Under  8 -110  2.5u to win 2.2u

Detroit/Angels  Under 9.5 +100   9.2u to win 9.2u

Seattle Under  8 -102        2.3u to win 2.2u

 
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Posted: #56
Neilsy, how did this look in years prior to last season?  Has this system endured the test of time?
 
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Posted: #57

Hey Eagle...for last season i did every team..every game.. it took a LONG time..after that I just randomly checked a bunch of teams from different seasons..and the results were similar.. so really, it has not stood any test of time yet..got back 14.5 units last night. hopefully a good run will put this more solidly in the black !

YTD  62 lines cleared  = 128u

Actual Profit   = 6.2u

Exposure= 33.8u  (betting 40u tonite- 6.2u in profit

Tonites Bets

Colorado Under 9 -110     2.2u to win  2u

Toronto Under  9 -105  4.7u to win 4.4u

Philly/Atlanta Under  8.5 +105   6.4u to win 6.7u

Cubs  Under 8  -118   2.4u to win 2u

Houston/Florida  Under 8.5 -102   7.4u to win  7.2u

Minnesota Over 9  -105   3.4u to win 3.2u

San Fran under  7 -110  5.2u to win 4.7u

Detroit/Angels Under 9 -115  3.8u to win 3.3u

Baltimore  Over 8 -123   3.8u to win 3u

 

GO SENS GO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 
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Posted: #58

I missed the 1st 3 days, but have been with you ever since.  Right now I am up 18 units.  My bet size is creeping up on several of the teams, but as long as this thing keeps supporting itself it doesnt really matter.  I suppose for it to get near 1000 units you prolly have to get the bet size up and get a few wins so you can start making up ground faster.

 
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Posted: #59
Its only been 2 weeks and The units are definetely out there, well over 100 right now in uncleared lines.. and one thing for sure in all the teams i checked out ..no line ever went on from April till the end of the season ..so these lines will  all clear.. but i guess at what cost is the question .. that being said  . if a few weeks down the road ..i am still  break even'ish ...and have a lot of lines up to 15-20 units .. then i will pull the plug on this, ad move on to something else.. .I am not interested in running a system that requires like 500 or more units..as I Have said from day 1..time will tell ..
 
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Posted: #60

1 early bet..rest later

KC/Toronton Under 7.5 -118   6.6u to win 5.6u

 
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Posted: #61

YTD : 63 lines cleared  = 126units

Actual Profit  = 3.4 units

Exposure = 24.5u  (27.9u in bets  - 3.4u in profit)

April 21 plays

KC/Toronto Under 7.5 -118   6.6u to win 5.6u

San Diego/San Fran Uner 8 -115    9.5u to win 8.2u

Boston Over  9 -105     6.7u to win 6.3u

Philly/Atlanta Under  7..5  -110  2.2u to win 2u

Cubs/Mets Under 8.5  +1-5  5u  to win 5.2u

Oakland  Over  8.5  -115      3.5u to win 3u

 

 
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Posted: #62
Neil

Interesting to read your summary of the season so far.  The idea of the system seems like it has merit, and I like a chance to play totals instead of sides.  But you're right, if the lines don't clear, it's going to be a tough call to make.  It's still early in the season, I think teams will hit their strides soon, and trends should become trendier.  Best luck.
 
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Posted: #63
Neil

Maybe there's a way to reduce the number of losses... make plays only when both teams are trending to overs or unders, for example.  Or skip games where one of the two teams is not trending.
 
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Posted: #64

Bomb .. i think by doing this you would just miss out on to many units..for example  the Dodger have already had a streak of 9 overs.. we cashed on 7 of them ..i don't think many of those were "double trends" .. so far i still havent had more than 50 units on the line. (till today..lol) .. A lot of big bets today..

 

YTD  67 lines cleared = 137 units

Actual Profit = 15 units

exposure= 42u (57 units in play - 15 units profit)

May 22 plays

Cleveland/Minny  Under  9 -132    9.9u to win 7.5u

Colorado/Washington Over 8   -118   12u to win 10.1u

Texas/Boston  Over 9  -110   7.5u to win 6.8u

Philly/Atlanta  Under 9.5  -118   4.8u to win 4u

Dodgers/Cincy  Over 9.5 -118    11.2u to win 9.6u

Florida/Houston Over  9 -122  11.6u to win 9.5u

 

Looks like a make it or break it kinda night ..need some overs !

GO SENS GO !!

 
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Posted: #65
Neilsy, can you recall how many units you were down after the 1st 3 days of the system.  We keep our units differently and have myself at +26 units right now.  1 thing I do differently is for example if my line looks like this, 10-10-20, my next wager is to win $30.  When I win my line only has 10 left.  I immediatly reset the line to the original 10-10 and ride the streak at $20 bets rather than make a final $10 bet to clear the line.  I split my base unit to make the line, so I never have any bets smaller than the sum of a brand new line.  From previous discussion, I know we keep our units differently in that what I call 26 units you would call 52 units and that brings us to reason I was wondering about the 1st 3 days that I missed.  You're up 15 units vs me being up 52 units.  Were the 1st 3 days that bad for there to be such a difference, because I am playing the exact same plays that you are and even missed a winner on the Cubs the other day!?  I am making light of this because you have mentioned shutting down this system and I hate that because so far it is solid even if its not on pace to reach 1000 units(or what I call 500).  You may want to check your form of labby because you arent getting all you can out of it for sure.  Im not trying to be critical, just trying to help a fellow team member grow his bankrole.

 
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Posted: #66

I was down 17.3 units after the 1st 3 days..so i think we are fairly close.. within 5 units or so .. ? ,

as far as resetting the line to 1-1 ..that is a good idea.. I have not been doing that and have had a few winners at just 1  ..otherwise i think we are pretty much doing the same thing.. 

 
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Posted: #67
Eagle..have you been keeping track of your daily profit ? .. if so i wouldn't  mind comparing .., i mean our lines would be different for some teams ..because you didnt play the 1st 3 days.. but it should be similar.. or just look at my plays each day and let me know if you have any big differences.,,that would help us both to not miss plays..!
 
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Posted: #68

Yes, I have kept track daily.  These totals are based on lines of 2.5-2.5 meaning my minimum wager amount is $5.

Day 1  -20.50
       2  +25.30
       3  +6.80
       4   -18.14
       5  +16.75
       6  +35.31
       7  +61.01
       8  +19.10
       9  -22
      10  -54.31
      11  +42.06
      12  -18.45
      13  +57.18

Total  + $130.11
Up 26 $5.00 units in my terms
Up 52 $2.50 units in your terms

Another thing that I do is round every loss up to the next 50 cents as I apply it to my lines.

 
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Posted: #69
I do that to insure that I get all of my juice back plus a little extra.
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by SUPEREAGLE43:

Yes, I have kept track daily.  These totals are based on lines of 2.5-2.5 meaning my minimum wager amount is $5.

Day 1  -20.50     -94
       2  +25.30   +82
       3  +6.80      +50
       4   -18.14    -112
       5  +16.75    +106
       6  +35.31     +20
       7  +61.01     +250
       8  +19.10     +25
       9  -22           -111
      10  -54.31      -220
      11  +42.06      +145
      12  -18.45        -28
      13  +57.18       +116

Total  + $130.11
Up 26 $5.00 units in my terms
Up 52 $2.50 units in your terms

Another thing that I do is round every loss up to the next 50 cents as I apply it to my lines.

i put my daily totals in blue beside yours. .my base line is $10 $10

so most days my results should equal yours X4 .. some days close.. some not .. i guess this could be partially due it my lines being a little different than yours. (with 3 extra days of results added) .. also if you got some games at  a 1/2 run different ..that would have changd some results ..anyway,.so far we are both up $$ ..which is good !!

 
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Posted: #71
I wanted to to start with 10-10, but was afraid that the lines would get to big to quik with the season being so long.  This season will be my trial run.  If all works out, next year I will amp it up. Sometimes I'm to dang conservative.
 
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Posted: #72
FWIW I started running my own spreadsheet and units on 4/19 using your 1 - 1 line.  I use matchbook so while I haven't tracked it exactly, I figure odds are close enough to even money on average that I don't need to compensate for juice.  That said, so far my results are:

4/19 +6
4/20 -4
4/21 +9
 
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Posted: #73
The odds on totals are never even close to even unless Im missing something.
 
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Posted: #74

another crap night tonite..can"t get any momentum going..

 
 
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Posted: #75
What about setting the line at just 1? for example, if u are to lose . . .

1
1-1
1-1-2
1-1-2-3

you keep your wager amount down and Id even recommend use .5% unit as a base. I've used labouchere with success before, but in moderation. As with most chase systems, the inevitable horrible run occurs.
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