MLB Dog System

Question

I&#x27;m going to be posting plays based mostly on the Tony Stoffo dog system. The rules are fairly easy:1) Eliminate all dogs that are more than &#x2B;150 (I&#x27;ll play &#x2B;150)2) No plays against any top 20 pitcher from both leagues using Sagarin ratings. At start of season we use final 2016 rankings. I adjusted a little by adding one to NL to replace Fernandez and made AL 21 to include Darvish who wasn&#x27;t rated top 20 due to IP only. 3) When 2 top 20 pitchers face off, bet the under. I&#x27;m doing this on a labby line and will show it.The original rules called for filtering out betting on any team on a 3 game or more losing streak or against any team on a 3 game or more win streak. I&#x27;m ignoring this filter to start the season as the past two Aprils went a combined 36-32. We can adjust if needed as we go along.Money Management: We will start with a $500 bankroll and FLAT bet 2% of bankroll on each dog play. This number is just for tracking purposes, everyone can bet what they want. Once we gain 25% on bankroll, we adjust our bet size. I have tested the last 2 Aprils and the results were good (up 58% in 2016 and 18% in 2015). I didn&#x27;t go further because I had no idea which pitchers would be in the top 20 after 1 month, I figured that is close to the time we will use current year stats. Let&#x27;s get this season going!!!

Danrules24 · Answer

I&#x27;m going to be posting plays based mostly on the Tony Stoffo dog system. The rules are fairly easy:1) Eliminate all dogs that are more than &#x2B;150 (I&#x27;ll play &#x2B;150)2) No plays against any top 20 pitcher from both leagues using Sagarin ratings. At start of season we use final 2016 rankings. I adjusted a little by adding one to NL to replace Fernandez and made AL 21 to include Darvish who wasn&#x27;t rated top 20 due to IP only. 3) When 2 top 20 pitchers face off, bet the under. I&#x27;m doing this on a labby line and will show it.The original rules called for filtering out betting on any team on a 3 game or more losing streak or against any team on a 3 game or more win streak. I&#x27;m ignoring this filter to start the season as the past two Aprils went a combined 36-32. We can adjust if needed as we go along.Money Management: We will start with a $500 bankroll and FLAT bet 2% of bankroll on each dog play. This number is just for tracking purposes, everyone can bet what they want. Once we gain 25% on bankroll, we adjust our bet size. I have tested the last 2 Aprils and the results were good (up 58% in 2016 and 18% in 2015). I didn&#x27;t go further because I had no idea which pitchers would be in the top 20 after 1 month, I figured that is close to the time we will use current year stats. Let&#x27;s get this season going!!!

kenkean89 · Answer

Lets roll!!

Danrules24 · Answer

Sunday has every game with a top 20 pitcher so no dog plays. We have two games betting the under. The first game is NYY and TB under 7 -120. We will wait to place the other bet based on the results of this game. That is the Cubs and STL game.

NYY/TB under 7 - $12 to win $10

Labby line: 5-5-5-5

munsoned17 · Answer

I can only get the over/under at 6.5 right now. Do I still play it?

Scrivero · Answer

I have virtually no idea about MLB, but what I see from the other games is that the difference between U6,5 and U7 in odds is "always" ca 30. That is, e.g. Cubs vs Cardinal U7 is &#x2B;132 and U6,5 is &#x2B;102. Miami vs Washington (on monday) U7 is &#x2B;111 and U6,5 is &#x2B;142.Hence, as the NYY vs TB U6,5 is &#x2B;113, it would be basically the same as the -120 U7 that Dan played. In decimal odds the difference would be exactly 30 (2,13 vs 1,83).Long story short, I still have no idea about MLB, but Im gonna bet the U6,5 with &#x2B;113. We just miss the chance of Push, which is most likely "compensated" by the &#x2B;30 difference in the odds. The &#x2B;113 of U6,5 could be just a bit bit lower in the value compared to the -120 of U7 but probably very close.Dan or anyone else can correct me if my assumptions above all totally wrong. I will start learning about MLB now. I start from exactly 0.

capskip · Answer

Used that system last year,and made a good profit.You will find it to be really hard to win if your a favorite player in baseball.Good luck to us this season danrules

Danrules24 · Answer

I&#x27;d play it at under 6.5. It&#x27;s one game and a small bet. You are trading better odds for a half run and would only get squeezed at exactly 7 runs.

Danrules24 · Answer

Cubs/STL under 7. I got &#x2B;112 at my book but lets use &#x2B;110. $15 to win $16.50 (close enough to $17). Labby line: 5-5-5-5-12

DFW · Answer

What did this system do last year?

ArmyJawBreaker · Answer

Where can I find 2016 Sagarin pitching ratings?  All the USA Today links are broke.

doubledime · Answer

Good luck

Danrules24 · Answer

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/sagarin/2016/nl-pitcher/

Danrules24 · Answer

STL chokes away a win for us, but we settle for a push.

Busy day in store for Monday. we have 4 games that qualify for betting the under: ATL/NYM, DET/ChiSox, KC/MIN and CLE/TEX. Since we have so many games, I'm going to change the lines up. Each bet on these games will be to win $13. New lines are now:

5-5-5-8, 5-5-5-8, 5-5-5-8, 5-5-5-8

We also have out first dog plays. Looking like Phil, Sea and Tor with Oak a possibility. Will confirm all Monday morning.

Kidmancer · Answer

Bol to us this season! Thanks dan! Lets do this!

Danrules24 · Answer

Big day today.Philly was supposed to be a play but looks like they are - odds almost everywhere so passing on Philly.These are all $10 bets: Sea &#x2B;139, Tor &#x2B;116 and Oak &#x2B;102ATL/NYM under 6.5 &#x2B;105, $13 betDET/ChiSox under 7 &#x2B;100, $13 betKC/MIN under 8 &#x2B;100, $13 betCLE/TEX under 7.5 -105, $13.65 to win $13

CKP22 · Answer

Good one here. Best of luck this season!

StatsNotEmotion · Answer

DanNot sure if you would have this information but have you looked at stats of no score 1st inning on the games your u play under?

Danrules24 · Answer

I have not, but that is interesting. Maybe I will track it, just one more thing to track. I may have to cut off what I track for my sanity. lol

Danrules24 · Answer

ADDING Philly &#x2B;108, $10 bet

StatsNotEmotion · Answer

Yes there is only so much you can track and with MLB there are thousands of things to track. Was just curious cause I played no score for the mets game so already cashed the ticket. I&#x27;ll try to track as well and see how it goes for awhile

Danrules24 · Answer

Sound good, thanks!I noticed on my book that it isn&#x27;t available for every game.

Danrules24 · Answer

Monday results on UNDER SystemATL/NYM under 6.5 &#x2B;105, $13 bet -WINDET/ChiSox under 7 &#x2B;100, $13 bet - RAINKC/MIN under 8 &#x2B;100, $13 bet - PUSHCLE/TEX under 7.5 -105, $13.65 to win $13 - LOSSYTD: 1-2 (-12.65)Reconfigured lines5-5-5-8-105-5-5-105-5-5-95-5

StatsNotEmotion · Answer

Dan All 3 games 1st NO Score hit today...ill keep tracking

Danrules24 · Answer

Yes sir. 4-1 on the season

MLB Dog System

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