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MLB SHUTOUT SYSTEM

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Captain
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Posted: #201

I finished the back testing for the American League.

  • 2013: 131 wins, 4 losses
  • 2012: 126 wins, 2 losses
  • 2011: 149 wins, 0 losses

In my opinion, you cannot run this using Martingale. Even if each game in the 6 game chase was betting on the underdog, a 6 game loss would be 63 units. Essentually you would have broken even in 2012 (most likely a small profit for winning some dog bets), and 2013 would have been a disaster with 252 units lost versus 131 wins.

I do not have a breakdown for wins on games 1-6, but there were a lot that went to 4, 5, 6 games. If I were to follow this, I would play a labby line no question.

 

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Rookie
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Posted: #202
Nice work Dan thanks for the efforts.. 4 losses on a 6 game chase in 2013 is a concern, more so considering a lot went to the 4,5,6 game phase as well.

Agreed Labby would be the way to go if played.

I wonder if the reverse is any better..  as in 'play on' a team for a W after they shut out their opposition..
 
Prospect
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Posted: #203
Just curious if anyone has tried this as play on the team that was shutout to go under the total for an 'x' game chase? Or what previous results have been?
Or possibly playing the shutout team on an 'x' game run line chase?
 
Veteran
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Posted: #204
Quote Originally Posted by GoTwins:

Just curious if anyone has tried this as play on the team that was shutout to go under the total for an 'x' game chase? Or what previous results have been?
Or possibly playing the shutout team on an 'x' game run line chase?

How about fade the shutout team, to lose by 2+ runs, so bet the opponent on the RL or RRL at +odds whatever the case may be
 
Prospect
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Posted: #205
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:


How about fade the shutout team, to lose by 2+ runs, so bet the opponent on the RL or RRL at +odds whatever the case may be

So you mean fade the team that gave the other team the shutout? Since this system is about fading a team that got shutout.
 
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Posted: #206
Quote Originally Posted by GhostNL:


So you mean fade the team that gave the other team the shutout? Since this system is about fading a team that got shutout.

No, fade the team that got shut out, but on the RL or RRL at +odds whichever the case may be.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #207
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:


No, fade the team that got shut out, but on the RL or RRL at +odds whichever the case may be.

That might work but you still keep the losses.
Maybe adding a filter like only fading teams with a winning percentage under 50% or something like that.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #208
Is there a way to know what the average line was for all the bets made last year or in previous years in the back testing of the systems?



 
Prospect
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Posted: #209
Quote Originally Posted by Goodsy:

Considering the success of SFJustice's system in MLB last season… has anyone applied it to NHL this season and made a successful transition of it ?

Quick glance over current season (2014/15) results would look like this: left number are the wins for each stage (numbers in brackets on right are the losses for each bracket)

A: 57 (56) 
B: 32 (24) 
C: 10 (14) 
D: 10 (4)
E: 3   (1)
1 loss (won on G)

So based on results up until and including 17th Feb 2015 the system sits at: 112W 1L if applied to a 5 game chase.

I may be 1 or 2 games off but it's reasonably accurate.

So yeah just throwing it out there for consideration, surely someone has tried it for NHL this season.

I have been tracking the NHL shutouts this year from the first game. I have also went back in a few of the previous (full) seasons.  I don't have all of the exact numbers with me but will say that from what I have found, you are best to only chase the first 3 games (if using the Martingale) and if it does not win in 3 games, cut your losses for that chase. On your next chase(s) you can average your previous losses over your next chase(s) or just accept you had a loser. However, so far you have around an 79% -81% chance of winning on the A or B game over the course of the seasons I have looked at. By chasing the C game you now increase your chances to 85-88%. There always seems to be one team that kills the system if you chase it until they finally lose. This year (2014-15) Montreal was shutout by Chicago on 11/04/14 0-5. They did not lose again until game 7 when they lost 0-4 against Pittsburgh.  Their next chase went for 3 games. So far this year the record looks like this:  Winners on A game: 50, winners on B game: 33, winners on C game: 9, D game or higher: 13. If anyone has ideas for money management on the best way to maximize profits please share.
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #210
I'll try to get you guys the exact numbers over the next few days when I have a few days off.  
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