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MLB SHUTOUT SYSTEM 2015

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Posted: #501
I've decided to sit out and watch from the sidelines on this system...Good luck to all who play!
 
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Posted: #502
Did some quick testing to see if the system gets off on the right foot overall.  Betting against any team that was shut out in its prior game since 1999 would yield the following (risking 100 if a fav, betting to win 100 if a dog):

Games Analyzed: 41850
Games Bet: 4595
% Wins: 51
ROI: -2.96%

Wins more than half the time but a money loser overall. 

Again, this is game 1 of the chase only.  There may be very good reasons for fading into a team having trouble scoring runs but the first step in the chase is not a stand alone system.
 
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Posted: #503
Padres...choo...choooo!
 
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Posted: #504
...and Halos...
 
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Posted: #505
Any recommendations on how much % of bankroll 1 unit should be so you're not tapped out in the middle of a chase?
 
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Posted: #506

winner, winner chicken parm dinner!

fade Padres   

fade Halos       

you gonna fire up this train AR?

 
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Posted: #507

Quote Originally Posted by BaseballChaser:

Any recommendations on how much % of bankroll 1 unit should be so you're not tapped out in the middle of a chase?

 

This chase can be brutal given the juice on most of the qualifiers and depth of the chase. If you're running a straight "marty" like this system employs, I would highly recommend no more than .5% of your BR on your initial wager if your play is a juiced fave, maybe1% if that play is a dog with +$. Definitely consider the upcoming games and "win-ability" within each chase before making that decision...in other words, forecast.  GL 

 
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Posted: #508
I like the idea of this system but I don't know if I have the bankroll or stomach..  Multiple 6 game chases always going on, with possible high juice, is kinda gnarly. 

I'm thinking of maybe waiting a month and then remove any team above a certain win %, the best teams that are the most likely to go on a winning streak after a shut out. 

But then you leave yourself with all the shiit teams, where betting against them will be the heaviest juice bets. 

Any thoughts on possible parameters for this system? 

 
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Posted: #509
Quote Originally Posted by Dutch1976:

I like the idea of this system but I don't know if I have the bankroll or stomach..  Multiple 6 game chases always going on, with possible high juice, is kinda gnarly. 

I'm thinking of maybe waiting a month and then remove any team above a certain win %, the best teams that are the most likely to go on a winning streak after a shut out. 

But then you leave yourself with all the shiit teams, where betting against them will be the heaviest juice bets. 

Any thoughts on possible parameters for this system? 

I am still doing back testing but one thing to possibly consider is only playing game 1 and no chase. The caveat is you only play the favorites on the -1.5 RL and play dogs on the ML against favorites. This keeps you from having to chase and risking your bankroll on high juice. I played this system 2 years ago with SF Justice and AR and it was good. I played last year as well with some filters and it was almost as good. It had a loss or two. Regardless, it does get expensive. So I have been looking for systems or adjusting systems to avoid chasing. Still doing backtesting though. Follow along charting this year, do your own back testing or ignore me. Good luck no matter which direction you go! Feel free to comment with ideas. Look at the first few days this season if you started with a $10 bet.  How deep in the hole would you be on San Diego if they won the first two games after their 04/04/16 game:


04/04/16 SD 0-15 (LAD) G1 04/05/16 (LAD-124/RL+130) WIN $13.00 0-3


04/04/16 LAA 0-9 (CHC) G1 04/05/16 (CHC-132/RL+125) WIN $12.50 1-6


04/05/16 SD 0-3 (LAD) G1 04/06/16 (LAD-150/RL+130) WIN $13.00

0-7






 
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Posted: #510
MAY 1st just around the bend now. Hope Allison is back running the SHUTOUT System again for 2016 .
 
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Posted: #511

Shutout System, opening games:

Sunday, May 01st 2016

KC -vs- SEA to WIN

NYY -vs- BOS to WIN

HOU -vs- OAK to WIN

 
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Posted: #512

Mariners -135 ML

RedSox -154 ML

A's -158 ML

 
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Posted: #513
 sN, are you playing this or just tracking it? Also, you referenced a "super aggressive labby" approach in post #487(with a +240 unit gain, impressive!)....what would this super-aggressive labby look like? Pardon my ignorance here, but I'm a +money marty player, and am curios to learn how to "deep chase" on juiced plays. Send PM if you'd like...thanks and GL
 
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Posted: #514
Quote Originally Posted by chaser15:

 sN, are you playing this or just tracking it? Also, you referenced a "super aggressive labby" approach in post #487(with a +240 unit gain, impressive!)....what would this super-aggressive labby look like? Pardon my ignorance here, but I'm a +money marty player, and am curios to learn how to "deep chase" on juiced plays. Send PM if you'd like...thanks and GL
I'm playing the Shutout System in a revised, upgraded 2016 version, initiating value, and risk management to a formulated outcome, eliminating 'blind-betting' to a degree...I have no intentions of tracking the Shutout System in its present form. however, I will be tracking the innovated version for 2016 (this includes ML, [-1.5] RL & 1st 5 Inning wagers) this would be your answer on how to "deep chase" you simply 'convert' minus (favorites) to (dogs) plus by the use of the [-1.5] RL, or in some instances, the [-1.5] RRL... confining the Shutout System solely to the ML is a MM application-disadvantage...
SAL is a recovery formula employed when consecutive loss has streaked; game a) your wager is 2u...you lose, game b) your wager is now 2u that you lost, plus the +2u that you could have won (this figure varies), plus 4u for game b) to WIN, so you're now looking at a minimum of aprx 8u being bet on game b) also, unit denomination is by no means stationary, a capper playing a system may play games, a) b) c) for $10 units attached to 10u MM...then bam! game d) comes along (everything falls in place, ace on the mound, at home, just lost 4 in a row, capped to WIN) SAL= converting units, and pounding out recovery with profitable dividends...your wager is capped, either RL RLL ML 1st 5 INNINGS....this was the explanation behind the +240 unit gain in reference to post #487

chaser15
your questions have merit for further discussion, your input (if any) is welcomed...
my objective in posting Sundays (May 01st) games was simply to inform, and give awareness to the fact that the Shutout System "officially begins" today 05/01/16....after 3 years of continous winning MLB  seasons, pertaining to the Shutout System, I can't speak on behalf of AR or Justice (the innovator of the system) if either one of them has the desire to continue into 2016, most likely this thread is passé unless someone feels the ignition to step up and continue....take care, and may your prosperity  shine

 
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Posted: #515
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

SuperEagle43,  used a super aggressive labby line, (based on the system's success rate over the previous three MLB seasons) if I recall, at the conclusion of the regular season I pulled in approx +280 units ($10 per unit denomination) or $2,800...not bad for a little recreation, and plenty of fun on the way...btw: the system has won 3 years in a row.. incidentally, as you can see, I played the system out, and didn't stop at 6 games, twice I took it to 8 games and went undefeated instead of suffering the two losses.. what the hell, using $10 units; why not? try it, you'll enjoy the play, the best to you always, and have a rewarding MLB season......

 
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Posted: #516

sN, Thank you for elaborating and best of luck to you with your revised 2016 version. That's a creative approach you employ. Personally, because I engage in Dog play, I have an aversion to utilizing any type of labby, (aggressive, super-aggressive, or otherwise) when chasing positive $ (dog) scenarios. Given that (a) any loss within a labby warrants two subsequent AND concurrent wins to "clear or reduce the line", and (b) dogs (positive $ scenarios) win at a lower% rate than their counterpart, an inherent disadvantage is created. The "marty", while exponentially more dangerous when chasing, is effective in that once the win is obtained, the chase ends (with profit). Conversely, that same chase MUST win the initial bet OR assume the burden of producing consecutive wins thereafter (not an easy task with the Dog plays). I understand a labby approach minimizes BR exposure, especially when chasing "chalk", for the risk-adverse punter, and because of that, it appears to be a strategy well-suited for playing the faves. Most of my systems however are dog/positive$ plays employing a "hybridized" marty MM application, which to date has served me quite well. Again, best of luck with your system!

 
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Posted: #517
For anyone using this system....how's it doing so far this season?
 
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Posted: #518
Quote Originally Posted by chaser15:

sN, Thank you for elaborating and best of luck to you with your revised 2016 version. That's a creative approach you employ. Personally, because I engage in Dog play, I have an aversion to utilizing any type of labby, (aggressive, super-aggressive, or otherwise) when chasing positive $ (dog) scenarios. Given that (a) any loss within a labby warrants two subsequent AND concurrent wins to "clear or reduce the line", and (b) dogs (positive $ scenarios) win at a lower% rate than their counterpart, an inherent disadvantage is created. The "marty", while exponentially more dangerous when chasing, is effective in that once the win is obtained, the chase ends (with profit). Conversely, that same chase MUST win the initial bet OR assume the burden of producing consecutive wins thereafter (not an easy task with the Dog plays). I understand a labby approach minimizes BR exposure, especially when chasing "chalk", for the risk-adverse punter, and because of that, it appears to be a strategy well-suited for playing the faves. Most of my systems however are dog/positive$ plays employing a "hybridized" marty MM application, which to date has served me quite well. Again, best of luck with your system!

I coincide, dogs are value, an excellent attachment to the Martingale application, wouldn't use anything less when dog play is activated, a lot of merit in your description...
 
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Posted: #519
Hey everyone,

Not sure who else is playing this system this year but i thought i would share my results that i have being tracking for the 2016 season. My results are based on the original rules of the system that AR laid out at the beginning of this thread. So the tracking starts as of May 1st.

This is what my notes show:

So far there have been 49 shoutouts as of May 1st.
Current results are 46 wins, 1 loss, and 2 open chases ongoing.

Here's the game chase breakdown:

A: 15 - 32
B: 16 - 16
C: 6 - 10
D: 5 - 5
E: 3 - 2
F: 1 - 1

The 1 loss cost 49 units which is when the SF Giants went on a 8 game winning streak after being shut out.

Overall, as of this moment the system is down 3 units. But with alot of baseball left to play, i'm confident that the system will end the year in the green . 

Good Luck everyone 
 
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Posted: #520
Gonna jump in this great system, in the big hope that AR returns...
what a drubbing yesterday: 11-0 whitewash of BJ's by the Tigers.

 
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Posted: #521
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

I coincide, dogs are value, an excellent attachment to the Martingale application, wouldn't use anything less when dog play is activated, a lot of merit in your description...

Sports_Network, how is your revised 2016 system doing? Anyway to get insight into it? 

I am currently playing this chase system this year martingale style and getting restless with this chase type. I am wanting to convert over to Labby lines, but am still unclear how to run one? What is the best site or page to study the labby system/lines so I can start running lab lines on this shutout system vs martingale? Thanks in advance for your input.



 
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Posted: #522
I hate to be a spoil sport, but if you are doing a martingale and the team you bet on is a favorite, say -160, doesn't that mean that if your bet wins you didn't recover your earlier losses and get ahead?
 
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Posted: #523
Fastbreaker, if you lost a dollar on your first bet, lets say at even odds, and your next play was -160, the wager on that next play would be 3.2 dollars (adding previous loss of one dollar and desired gain amount, 1dollar in this case, then multiplying it by your wager odds of 1.6). At least that's how I play it...hope that helps
 
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Posted: #524
chaser15:  Fair enough but if you set up the martingale to go 1, 2, 4 8, 16 and then 32 then if it loses you have a total loss of $63.  But if you throw a couple of favorites in there at -160 you will have lost way more than that.
 
 
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Posted: #525
Quote Originally Posted by DFW:


Sports_Network, how is your revised 2016 system doing? Anyway to get insight into it? 

I am currently playing this chase system this year martingale style and getting restless with this chase type. I am wanting to convert over to Labby lines, but am still unclear how to run one? What is the best site or page to study the labby system/lines so I can start running lab lines on this shutout system vs martingale? Thanks in advance for your input.



It's doing vg, however, on two occassions I extended the six losses [a b c d e f] to a 'g' game and won both series... insight? it's all about the -1.5 RL and the 1st-5-Innings wager, keeping dogs, and value at the top of the food chain...labby MM technique can be found on numerous sites, simply by Googling it...or refer to 'wikipedia' for in-depth formulated applications for baseball wagering exclusively..the concept on a revised system such as the Shutout System, can only be measured by when where why and how do you apply the -1.5 RL? +1.5 RL? 1st-5-Innings? that is the question; and brings termination to the discipline of blind-betting a chase system.
take note: employing a formulated betting system which involves MLB, a capper must have a clear understanding to the fact that MM is the key element when a ratio of games is at stake; 1/6 brings you the winning edge, Martingale/Labby brings you the 
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