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MLB system releases...

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Posted: #376
good*
 
Prospect
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Posted: #377
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Yes they where! your correct, and thank you for bringing your commentary forward.. To add insight; their are NO excuses, but there's an explanation; Base_Runs system "does not walk on water" nor is it a handicapping 'tool' that "takes you back into the future" for projected results..What it does offer is a 70% advantage ratio...I am sure with your handicapping experience your'e familiar with "progression/regression theorm"...best regards


 Rockies+109 
 Marlins+109 (great start up 3-1 thru 6th. bullpen blew it for the fish)
                                         Astros-139 ( 3-1 lead before bad call at home plate which leads to Lance Berkman and Cecil Cooper's ejection.)
                                         Cubs+128    
                                         Giants-135  (had 2-1 lead going into bottom of the 9th, closer blew the safe)
                                         Rangers+115 (3-4 lost, gave up winning run in bottom 8th. and left runner on the corner with 1 out with DP on top 9th.)
                                         Twins+105 
                                         Royals-190 (bullpen, enough said.)
 
                                         Phillies vs Reds OVER 9.5 
                                         A's vs DevilRays UNDER 9.5  (5-3 going into bottom of the ninth, miracle come back for the rays to put up 3 runs.)
                                         Orioles vs Yankees UNDER 11 (Push, Jaba left the game in 1st)
                                         BlueJays vs RedSox OVER 9.5 
                                         LAA vs Mariners UNDER 8 

Overall, i say its a tough and very unlucky day for all of us. keep up the good work guys
 
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Posted: #378
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:


BAL/NYY OVER
TEX/DET OVER (2nd day in a row this one got me)
MIN/CHW OVER
LAA/SEA UNDER
KC/CLE   OVER
NYY/BAL OVER

Will try to get some of games out tonight because I have finals, work, and a baseball playoff game for the kids I coached.

Way to go Michelin Man.........Heavin....

 
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Posted: #379
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:

SN...is there a correlation in totals for day games to go over and night games to go under. On yesterdays games, day games went 4-1 over and night games 7-1-1 under. Also noticed if one had placed all your bets on RL + 1 1/2 your record would have been 10-4 covering....of course all negative money wagering. Any significance for future capping or is this outside of your work?
 
Thanks for all your gard work and posting....JJ

 Yes, I took a long look at the 10-4 STAT and for you to bring this forward, you must have a focus on my 'outline' nice to see someone grab that other than myself

my work is documenting BR/RC systems, powered by Covers.com...Sabermetrics is the concept, incorporating/attached to MLB handicapping...let me brief you on the documentation involved in the experiment.

games handicapped:162

games cut:62

cut wins:42

cut losses:20

plays 100

wins:70

losses:30

apx advantage ratio 71%

combined:112wins 50losses

#of plays wagered on:100 (all 16 phases)

*********************************************************

The continuation of "MLB system releases" thread, will go directly into RL / DOG value play, which will also include 100 published picks/plays, attached to unit managment, understanding, I do wager progressively as the system displays it's accuracy,       

thank you for the insight, and interest.I'll keep you posted on the rl/dog plays...good to hear from you JJ .....later

 

 

apx advantage 71%

losses:30

 

 
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Posted: #380
Lay-off intra league games till Sunday, more spots, better advantages..will be researching first 2 games, plus handicapping, will not wager till game 3......
 
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Posted: #381
Finally at home so I can do some serious capping.

I realize SN recommended to lay off this weekend until Sunday, but I have finished "buffing" my system.  I do primarily "sides", based off of value from the current lines.  On occasion, when I see good value, I may play a total.

I too, utilize Runs_Created and Base_Runs as SN has explained in prior posts.  The difference to my system is that I incorporate the Pythagorean Winning Expectation formula to exploit the value.

I also have each teams bullpen in my system.  I have a huge belief that bullpens play a much larger role to the end result of the game.

I will post my plays based on a 3 letter grade.
A play = 1 unit
B play = 3/4 unit
C play = 1/2 unit

An "A" play is huge value, "B" is large value and "C" is minimal value, but still a play.

I will begin to post my system plays in a few minutes in this thread based of the reasoning that I utilize RC and BR for my final selections.

GL to us!!  
 
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Posted: #382
2009 Results

YTD: 0 - 0 = 0%
Units: 0

C Play:

1:10pm
Kansas City + .5 runs (-105) 1st 5 innings
Kansas City +1.5 runs (-145) Game         

BOL! 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #383
2009 Results

YTD: 0 - 0 = 0%
Units: 0

A Play:

4:10pm
Philadelphia + .5 runs (-110) 1st 5 innings
Philadelphia +150 Game         

B Play:
Texas -.5 runs (-115) 1st 5 innings 
Texas ML (-115) Game 


BOL! 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #384
Not a good start! 


2009 Results

YTD: 0 - 2 = 0%
Units: -1

C Play:

1:10pm
Kansas City + .5 runs (-105) 1st 5 innings
Kansas City +1.5 runs (-145) Game         


BOL! 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #385
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:

2009 Results

YTD: 0 - 0 = 0%
Units: 0

A Play:

4:10pm
Philadelphia + .5 runs (-110) 1st 5 innings
Philadelphia +150 Game         

B Play:
Texas ML (-115) 1st 5 innings 
Texas ML (-115) Game 


BOL! 


I corrected typo!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #386
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:

2009 Results

YTD: 0 - 02 = 0%
Units: -1

A Play: (1 unit)

4:10pm
Philadelphia RL + .5 runs (-110) 1st 5 innings
Philadelphia ML +150 Game         

B Play: (3/4 unit)
Texas ML (-115) 1st 5 innings 
Texas ML (-115) Game 


BOL! 


Updated
 
Prospect
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Posted: #387
2009 Results

YTD: 0 - 2 = 0%
Units: -1

A Play:

7:05pm
Washington ML (+100) 1st 5 innings 
Washington ML (+105) Game      

B Play:
Pittsburgh ML (+120) 1st 5 innings 
Pittsburgh ML (+135) Game     

Toronto ML (+125) 1st 5 innings 
Toronto ML (+130) Game     


BOL! 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #388
2009 Results

YTD: 0 - 2 = 0%
Units: -1

C Play:

10:10pm
Seattle ML (+100) 1st 5 innings 
Seattle ML (+105) Game      

LA Dodgers ML (-125) 1st 5 innings 
LA Dodgers ML (-125) Game     



BOL! 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #389
2009 Results

YTD: 3 - 8 - 1 = 27.27% 
Units: -3.5  

Two Games Pending!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #390
2009 Results

YTD: 5 - 10 - 1 = 33.33% 
Units: -3.5  

Not a good first day!!!

Tomorrow is another day.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #391
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:

2009 Results

YTD: 5 - 10 - 1 = 33.33% 
Units: -3.5  

Not a good first day!!!

Tomorrow is another day.


Hi Bill, dont get discouraged!

I've been following all the posts and have been doing my own calculations and have done about 65%. Still some numbers don't look right to me on some games, might be missing something. Can you add me to friends list and possibly exchange some ideas.

3lKiks
 
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Posted: #392
BW27 / please continue, make adjustments with variables, on a trial and error format till you have "fine tuned" the system; take note, it's essential that you utilize the "cut" formula in the final stage,to activate the 70% advantage BR/RC produces.........Your reading the same book, your on the same chapter, your not yet, on the same page in executing,the unification of sabermetrics to MLB stats, which will result in the correct application of the Base_Runs system....Later
 
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Posted: #393
kiks / congratulations on your 65% ratio, your insight, and interest are welcomed..
 
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Posted: #394
Thank You Gentlemen!

I have been "fine tuning" the formula for a few days and feel that I am really close to where I need to be.  I decided to start keeping record of my choices yesterday based upon past results of my calculations.

4 games that I lost yesterday were lost in the 8th or 9th innings. Bad Luck? or Bad Bet?

I will continue to find the faults in the formula to achieve a 60%+ result!

BW
 
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Posted: #395
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:

Thank You Gentlemen!

I have been "fine tuning" the formula for a few days and feel that I am really close to where I need to be.  I decided to start keeping record of my choices yesterday based upon past results of my calculations.

4 games that I lost yesterday were lost in the 8th or 9th innings. Bad Luck? or Bad Bet?

I will continue to find the faults in the formula to achieve a 60%+ result!

BW

I would recommend you brief yourself on "Progression/RegressionTheorm" pertaining to MLB handicapping, it deals with 'slumps' and losses, and the phenomenon attached to why they happen.(why a sure thing becomes a flop)

it pushes the 'rebound' on the next days action to the forefront, and assures a positive approach

 

 

 
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Posted: #396
MLB system releases Sunday 05/24/09 Base_Runs formula....
 
                                  Cubs-104
                                  Tigers+135 RL
                                  RedSox+120 RL
                                  Royals+140
                                  Mariners-150
                                  Brewers+130
 
                                  Rangers vs Astros OVER 9.5
                                  Indians vs Reds UNDER 8.5
                                  BlueJays vs Braves UNDER 8.5
                                  Phillies vs Yankees UNDER 9.5
 
 
 
reference:experimental / RL DOG play
objective:documentation
wagering:yes
gp:10
projected wins:7
 
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Posted: #397
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

MLB system releases Sunday 05/24/09 Base_Runs formula....
 
                                  Cubs-104
                                  Tigers+135 RL
                                  RedSox+120 RL
                                  Royals+140
                                  Mariners-150
                                  Brewers+130
 
                                  Rangers vs Astros OVER 9.5
                                  Indians vs Reds UNDER 8.5
                                  BlueJays vs Braves UNDER 8.5
                                  Phillies vs Yankees UNDER 9.5
 
 
 
reference:experimental / RL DOG play
objective:documentation
wagering:yes
gp:10
projected wins:7


SN,

Is this your "cut" version?  I am currently comparing your selctions to mine.



GL
 
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Posted: #398
is this work?
 
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Posted: #399

Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:



SN,

Is this your "cut" version?  I am currently comparing your selctions to mine.



GL

 Yes it is, these are the plays I am wagering on, they are also part of a documented experiment, pertaining to RL / DOG play, using the Base_Runs system as a base, with variables...best regards

 
 
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Posted: #400
SN,
 
Thank you for the reply.
 
 
GL
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