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Posted: #351


Team Totals























































 
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Posted: #352
HeaVin-Cent,

I just cant get the right format...

But, I have 6.02 for the Yanks RC...This is the 2009 entire team #s.

What are you using?
 
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Posted: #353
uzovka77

What format and or program do you need to run download???


https://www.4shared.com/file/106682150/90db7f4c/BR-RC-BattR.html


Help????
 
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Posted: #354
Quote Originally Posted by rman1049:

uzovka77

What format and or program do you need to run download???


https://www.4shared.com/file/106682150/90db7f4c/BR-RC-BattR.html


Help????


It's just regular Excel 2007 file, so you need MS Office 2007
 
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Posted: #355
[Quote: Originally Posted by uzovka77] Hi everybody.

Here is something I'm using for fast calculation.

https://www.4shared.com/file/106682150/90db7f4c/BR-RC-BattR.html


Calculate basic formula for each team takes me about 1 minute, if I've got #s ready to put to the excel tab. In that file is couple of formulas (BR,RN and BattingRuns). Calculation is pretty easy (just put the #s for VISITOR and HOME team on the top of the page blue highligted) and fast. There are all formulas and definitions. All cells are defined, so you don't need nothing else, than put the numbers and you can see runs for each team and total.
Here looks everything fine, but......
The finel score is different for each used formula.
So now I can ask you boys for some help and discussion, how to make that calculator fine and more accurate. I'm looking forward to reading any answer ASAP

[/Quo

"The final score is different for each used formula"

you must combine BR/RC to handicapp the final score, and totals.

This is an important ingredient, and a mandatory tool to initiate the

success ratio. Without the correct application, the formula becomes a dis-advantage, and a distraction.......Later

 
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Posted: #356

BAL/NYY OVER
TEX/DET OVER (2nd day in a row this one got me)
MIN/CHW OVER
LAA/SEA UNDER
KC/CLE   OVER
NYY/BAL OVER

Will try to get some of games out tonight because I have finals, work, and a baseball playoff game for the kids I coached.

 
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Posted: #357
77 / BR has been used successfuly by itself, as a tool of handicapping "totals" play..
 
 
Are you using the sabermetric MLB formula's published in Wikipedia?  aka:Smyth,James,Tango (inventors/innovators)
 
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Posted: #358
77 / If you haven't reviewed the thread from it's conception, I recommend you scroll through it, if interested in concept, and complete understanding..It's 'all' their, in detail, self explainatory, and documented for your convenience.....
 
(sabermetrics+mlb stats=BR / RC handicapping=70%)
 
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Posted: #359
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:


BAL/NYY OVER
TEX/DET OVER (2nd day in a row this one got me)
MIN/CHW OVER
LAA/SEA UNDER
KC/CLE   OVER
NYY/BAL OVER

Will try to get some of games out tonight because I have finals, work, and a baseball playoff game for the kids I coached.

your success is warranted, good work

 
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Posted: #360
vincent / Your incorporation of Base_Runs in "totals" shows the direction your expertise is geared towards..Please continue, it's working in your behalf..good contribution...later SN
 
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Posted: #361
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

vincent / Your incorporation of Base_Runs in "totals" shows the direction your expertise is geared towards..Please continue, it's working in your behalf..good contribution...later SN

I know anyone can beat anyone on any given day, that is why I struggle with sides so much. I like totals in every sport that I play so hopefully this will work in the long run for me. 
 
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Posted: #362
This is what I came up with. I will be really busy tomorrow so I doubt I will get around to make any changes. Im going to stick with these.

Personally I dont have any strong numbers for any of the games but will have a few games for you guys to pick from if they match up with the others who cap they might be reasonable to play. BOL 

MIN/CHW UNDER 9.5
PHI/CIN OVER 10
AZ/FLA UNDER 8.5
MIL/HOU OVER 9

Again not very strong card IMO
 
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Posted: #363
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:


BAL/NYY OVER
TEX/DET OVER (2nd day in a row this one got me)
MIN/CHW OVER
LAA/SEA UNDER
KC/CLE   OVER
NYY/BAL OVER

Will try to get some of games out tonight because I have finals, work, and a baseball playoff game for the kids I coached.

So based on this system, do you think totals are stronger plays than sides?

 
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Posted: #364
swamp /  Yes
 
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Posted: #365
The "cut" formula, concept, understanding, and comprehensive application attached to Base_Runs / Runs_Created handicapping systems..advanced....
 
FAQ
 
WHO applies the formula? everyone using BR/RC systems, their are no alternatives, the "cut" is mandatory, and must be used to complete the "final stage" of your prefered wagers....
 
WHAT if your "un-cut version" has opposites, that don't coincide? Sometimes the equations are very simular, and getting a 'read' can be difficult to match, based on sabermetrics..this is when the cappers skill kicks in, to make a determanation, and bring situational play to the forefront.....
 
WHEN is the "cut" version applied? after line shopping..
 
WHERE is the in-depth formula to the "cut" located, for further explanation? reference to SN.....
 
WHY is the application of the "cut" mandarory? to achieve the proven success ratio of 70% by elimenation of the "no play"
 
HOW is the cut formula applied? this is determined by the individual capper, and his/hers experience in 'reading' the equations derived from BR/RC 'gap' advantage...
 
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Posted: #366
MLB system releases Thursday 05/21/09:un-cut version BR/RC ...
 
                                         Rockies+109
                                         Marlins+109
                                         Astros-139
                                         Cubs+128
                                         Giants-135
                                         Rangers+115
                                         Twins+105
                                         Royals-190
 
                                         Phillies vs Reds OVER 9.5
                                         A's vs DevilRays UNDER 9.5
                                         Orioles vs Yankees UNDER 11
                                         BlueJays vs RedSox OVER 9.5
                                         LAA vs Mariners UNDER 8
PIT/WAS scratched
 
gp:13
projected wins:9
advantage ratio:71%
# of games "cut":4
tgp:9
 
 
formula:play nine, cut four,if you coincide with any of the  above   play them..add or subtract until you reach the equation of 9=70%
                                        
 
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Posted: #367
Take note, handicap your own un-cut version based on your 'read' of the BR/RC system..the above is a guideline used as an example from SN's "play nine' read, on todays MLB action....
 
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Posted: #368
Can you "cut" more than once? Yes, the formula calls for one, max 2 cuts total...On 13 plays, you should have a bare minimum of 5 plays/advantages.....later
 
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Posted: #369
uzovka77 / thx for  4share.com
 
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Posted: #370
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
uzovka77 / thx for  4share.com
[/Quote

I'm doing my best
Right now i fill lost in numbers. I'm using all the formulas you can see in my calculating excel file, but don't know the right next step. Also not sure, if I'm using the right stats resources. Only site providing "SP vs. current lineup" is sometimes to late with the preview and stats for upcoming day.
I'm also not sure, if I use the stats correctly, because I'm getting higher Run #s very frequently. We moved to USA couple of years ago and in football and baseball I'm not really PRO caper
I'll do my sample calculation for one specific game and you boys can maybe tell me, what I'm doing wrong.
Thank you very much for patient and wish you GL  
 
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Posted: #371
MINCHW UNDER 

All I have to say is WOW. I knew it wasnt a strong play but for Bart to get smashed and the pen to receive the same treatment is shocking. I guess I was on the wrong side on that one. 

As for what I said about compare games with SN to get a good play...
CIN/PHI OVER was the lone game we had and it sailed. BOL the rest of the day. I looked over the OAK/TB game and Under would have been a lean but I didnt recognize it last night... This will not be a posted play for me but of course I had to put a little action on it. 
 
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Posted: #372
HEAVEN-----you are doing a great job buddy i think you are only 1 or 2 steps behind SPORT N.....but you are still learning how to do system....i think you will have it figured out shortly......KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK....just a few more TWEEKS here and there and you will have it........THANKS FOR SHARING YOUR WORK WITH US.......HOPE U MAKE A MILLION WITH SYSTEM MY FRIEND.....i am gonna send you a friend request, so i can pm you sometimes....ONCE AGAIN GOOD LUCK TO YA,I NO IT IS HARD WORK CAPPING ALL THE GAMES.....SO THANKS FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTING
 
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Posted: #373
Your sides were terrible yesterday, down a bunch!
 
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Posted: #374
Quote Originally Posted by nojuice:

Your sides were terrible yesterday, down a bunch!

Yes they where! your correct, and thank you for bringing your commentary forward.. To add insight; their are NO excuses, but there's an explanation; Base_Runs system "does not walk on water" nor is it a handicapping 'tool' that "takes you back into the future" for projected results..What it does offer is a 70% advantage ratio...I am sure with your handicapping experience your'e familiar with "progression/regression theorm"...best regards

 
 
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Posted: #375
SN...is there a correlation in totals for day games to go over and night games to go under. On yesterdays games, day games went 4-1 over and night games 7-1-1 under. Also noticed if one had placed all your bets on RL + 1 1/2 your record would have been 10-4 covering....of course all negative money wagering. Any significance for future capping or is this outside of your work?
 
Thanks for all your gard work and posting....JJ
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