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Posted: #326
This is what I have so far:

TEX/DET OVER
OAK/TB   UNDER
BOS/TOR OVER
CLE/KC    UNDER
AZ/FLA    UNDER
MIL/HOU  UNDER
CHC/STL  UNDER

 
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Posted: #327
I did numbers wrong for CHC/STL make this a no play
 
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Posted: #328
Let me try this again. These are final for me

AZ/FLA UNDER 8
CHI/STL UNDER 9
TEX/DET OVER 10.5
OAK/TB UNDER 10
CLE/KC UNDER 8.5
MIL/HOU UNDER 9.5
 
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Posted: #329
HeaVin why do you have MIL/HOU under and SN has Over in uncut version?
 
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Posted: #330
I would go with his plays since he knows the system better. That is what I came up with and should probably make it a no play. It depends on what numbers you use such as current season/career/situational and even what formula is used. Well see how it plays out. Some of it is gut feeling after watching both pitchers this season, I watch too much baseball....
 
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Posted: #331
Hi guys,
       back from a little R & R and watching the Jays/Sox game.
Heavin...did you make some on the weekend ?
       ..trying to do some homework this week and see what I come up with.
 
     
 
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Posted: #332
I did well this weekend. I am trying to make a very steady payout from my bookie. All this school and finding out I am getting a bigger return with sportsbooks than stocks...

Anyways results for tonight were mixed
AZ/FLA UNDER 8 push
CHI/STL UNDER 9
TEX/DET OVER 10.5
OAK/TB UNDER 10(biggest play for me)
CLE/KC UNDER 8.5(bad beat but great game)
MIL/HOU UNDER 9.5

3-2-1  not a perfect night but I have been staying above 60% early on with this systems

Thanks once again to Sports Network for introducing the system this is his work, I am just following along the idea. BOL


 
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Posted: #333
[Quote: Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent] I did well this weekend. I am trying to make a very steady payout from my bookie. All this school and finding out I am getting a bigger return with sportsbooks than stocks...

Anyways results for tonight were mixed
AZ/FLA UNDER 8 push
CHI/STL UNDER 9
TEX/DET OVER 10.5
OAK/TB UNDER 10(biggest play for me)
CLE/KC UNDER 8.5(bad beat but great game)
MIL/HOU UNDER 9.5

3-2-1  not a perfect night but I have been staying above 60% early on with this systems

Thanks once again to Sports Network for introducing the system this is his work, I am just following along the idea. BOL


[/Q

Congratulations on your MIL/HOU under play, this was a borderline lean towards the over, based on hamilton being a lefty, your handicapping skills, and situational play, pushed it the other way, in your behalf, and brought home a win; good work on this play...

Remember, the reasoning behind the un-cut version being published, is to identify the 70% success ratio within-in all games available for action..Yesterday you had 15 games, 10wins would have given you 70% the un-cut version produced 9 , which means in essence, had the handicapper produced the correct final cut, he would have went 9-1 , as an example, with my understanding of the system, I went 7-3 on my personal wagers after cutting 5 teams..Base_Runs should always be looked at as a "tool" to bring 70% winning ratio to the forefront, the "cut" is where the handicappers skills comes into effect,  where the most important part of the formula is initiated..FAQ why not post 'your' cut version? I already have; in the form of 16 phases, and 100 cut plays..what purpose would it serve? other than doing  handicapping work with performance for others, that's not the objective in the Base_Runs experiment...Your inside, continue .......later

 
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Posted: #334
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:

I did well this weekend. I am trying to make a very steady payout from my bookie. All this school and finding out I am getting a bigger return with sportsbooks than stocks...

Anyways results for tonight were mixed
AZ/FLA UNDER 8 push
CHI/STL UNDER 9
TEX/DET OVER 10.5
OAK/TB UNDER 10(biggest play for me)
CLE/KC UNDER 8.5(bad beat but great game)
MIL/HOU UNDER 9.5

3-2-1  not a perfect night but I have been staying above 60% early on with this systems

Thanks once again to Sports Network for introducing the system this is his work, I am just following along the idea. BOL



Where did you get data for OAK/TB????? That was for me NO PLAY game, because I can get data enough :( And it wasn't the only game yestreday.

 "No data, perhaps the minimum PA's are too high?"

 
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Posted: #335
uzovka77 /  OAK vs TB  was the strongest Under play Base_Runs projected....If you couldn't get data, most likely, you were looking in the wrong place
 
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Posted: #336
Quote Originally Posted by uzovka77:


Where did you get data for OAK/TB????? That was for me NO PLAY game, because I can get data enough :( And it wasn't the only game yestreday.

 "No data, perhaps the minimum PA's are too high?"

Oak is one of the lowest RC/BR teams. Shields has had great success against them with a very low number there as well. I did not have alot of info with Outman against TB but he has been really good this season so far...

Some of the plays that I get are not all based on BR/RC but most of it originates from them tho. Its just a huge asset to start with!
 
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Posted: #337
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:


Oak is one of the lowest RC/BR teams. Shields has had great success against them with a very low number there as well. I did not have alot of info with Outman against TB but he has been really good this season so far...

Some of the plays that I get are not all based on BR/RC but most of it originates from them tho. Its just a huge asset to start with!


My problem was Outman!!! No info :( I like to work on
baseball-reference.com

So I really don't know, if this game was without info for one starting pitcher the "strongest" :(

Anyway...thanks for answer and GL
 
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Posted: #338
MLB system releases Wed,05/20/09: un-cut version BR/RC
 
                              Reds-119
                              Nationals-131
                              Braves-147
                              Marlins-144 (Volstad)
                              Astro's+105
                              Giants+123
                              BlueJays+104
                              DevilRays-173
                              Twins+105
 
                              Cubs vs Cardinals UNDER 9
                              Rangers vs Tigers OVER 8.5
                              Orioles vs Yankees UNDER 11.5
                              Indians vs Royals UNDER 9.5
                              LAA vs Mariners UNDER 9.5
 
gp:14
projected wins:9
success ratio:70%
 
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Posted: #339
sports_Network and HeaVin-Cent or anyone active in the thread,

I have been doing several different computations with these formulas for a few days to test the system.

I have several questions to see how you compute you systems.

**Using yesterday's Florida Marlins lineup with today's starting pitcher as an example:

1. When doing RC for team totals, I have 3 different #s that I potentially look at:

RC/G=4.29 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) 2009 totals for the entire team

RC/G=4.21 (RC divided by # of games played in 2009) 2009 totals for the entire team

RC/G=5.18 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) Yesterday's starting lineup plus today's starting pitcher. (total of 9 players in lineup) 2009 totals.

All four averaged together = 4.56

Which set of numbers do you look at?

Do you use the same #s or do you use career #s vs SP?

When doing RC, do you incorporate the effect of the SP? If so, how? I have been looking at incorporating the SP's ERA (2009 totals, career total and career vs starting lineup)

2. When choosing a team side, I have been doing BR for the starting lineup (2009 totals for each player including today's starting pitcher). I then do BR for the Starting pitcher (2009 totals) and average the #s (SP vs Opposing team). The larger of the two #s is my play.

I realize some of you do career #s. When calculating BR, we have 3 different #s to potentially look at.

*Total career #s for the pitcher vs Total career #s for the opposing lineup.

*2009 #s for the pitcher vs 2009 #s for the opposing lineup.

*Career #s against the starting lineup for the pitcher.

Which do you prefer?



Any information that you may concede will be greatly appreciated!
 
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Posted: #340
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:

sports_Network and HeaVin-Cent or anyone active in the thread,

I have been doing several different computations with these formulas for a few days to test the system.

I have several questions to see how you compute your systems.

**Using yesterday's Florida Marlins lineup with today's starting pitcher as an example:

1. When doing RC for team totals, I have 3 different #s that I potentially look at:

RC/G=4.29 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) 2009 totals for the entire team

RC/G=4.21 (RC divided by # of games played in 2009) 2009 totals for the entire team

RC/G=5.18 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) Yesterday's starting lineup plus today's starting pitcher. (total of 9 players in lineup) 2009 totals.

All 3 averaged together = 4.56

Which set of numbers do you look at?

Do you use the same #s or do you use career #s vs SP?

When doing RC, do you incorporate the effect of the SP? If so, how? I have been looking at incorporating the SP's ERA (2009 totals, career total and career vs starting lineup)

2. When choosing a team side, I have been doing BR for the starting lineup (2009 totals for each player including today's starting pitcher). I then do BR for the Starting pitcher (2009 totals) and average the #s (SP vs Opposing team). The larger of the two #s is my play.

I realize some of you do career #s. When calculating BR, we have 3 different #s to potentially look at.

*Total career #s for the pitcher vs Total career #s for the opposing lineup.

*2009 #s for the pitcher vs 2009 #s for the opposing lineup.

*Career #s against the starting lineup for the pitcher.

Which do you prefer?



Any information that you may concede will be greatly appreciated!


a few typos...
 
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Posted: #341
Man you guys are progressing quicklygreat work and some good questions are really starting to help.All I need is more time to do my own work,but appreciate you all putting your posts up for the rest of us slow followersto learn.
 
hog     
 
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Posted: #342
Decent results Heavingood work brother.
  How much time does it take you to do one game?if you don't mind me asking.
 
 
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Posted: #343
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:

sports_Network and HeaVin-Cent or anyone active in the thread,

I have been doing several different computations with these formulas for a few days to test the system.

I have several questions to see how you compute you systems.

**Using yesterday's Florida Marlins lineup with today's starting pitcher as an example:

1. When doing RC for team totals, I have 3 different #s that I potentially look at:

RC/G=4.29 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) 2009 totals for the entire team

RC/G=4.21 (RC divided by # of games played in 2009) 2009 totals for the entire team

RC/G=5.18 (RC divided by # of outs times 27) Yesterday's starting lineup plus today's starting pitcher. (total of 9 players in lineup) 2009 totals.

All four averaged together = 4.56

Which set of numbers do you look at?

Do you use the same #s or do you use career #s vs SP?

When doing RC, do you incorporate the effect of the SP? If so, how? I have been looking at incorporating the SP's ERA (2009 totals, career total and career vs starting lineup)

2. When choosing a team side, I have been doing BR for the starting lineup (2009 totals for each player including today's starting pitcher). I then do BR for the Starting pitcher (2009 totals) and average the #s (SP vs Opposing team). The larger of the two #s is my play.

I realize some of you do career #s. When calculating BR, we have 3 different #s to potentially look at.

*Total career #s for the pitcher vs Total career #s for the opposing lineup.

*2009 #s for the pitcher vs 2009 #s for the opposing lineup.

*Career #s against the starting lineup for the pitcher.

Which do you prefer?



Any information that you may concede will be greatly appreciated!

it's clearly indicated in both BR and RC formula's to always incorporate "career" stats, with an emphasis on the present season. everything else appears to be in form

 

 

 
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Posted: #344
Thank you sports_Network.

GL
 
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Posted: #345
your welcome
 
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Posted: #346
Hi everybody.

Here is something I'm using for fast calculation.

https://www.4shared.com/file/106682150/90db7f4c/BR-RC-BattR.html


Calculate basic formula for each team takes me about 1 minute, if I've got #s ready to put to the excel tab. In that file is couple of formulas (BR,RN and BattingRuns). Calculation is pretty easy (just put the #s for VISITOR and HOME team on the top of the page blue highligted) and fast. There are all formulas and definitions. All cells are defined, so you don't need nothing else, than put the numbers and you can see runs for each team and total.
Here looks everything fine, but......
The finel score is different for each used formula.
So now I can ask you boys for some help and discussion, how to make that calculator fine and more accurate. I'm looking forward to reading any answer ASAP
 
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Posted: #347
I think my numbers are off today.... I have opposites with a few games 

BAL/NYY OVER
TEX/DET OVER
MIN/CHW OVER
LAA/SEA UNDER

As for KC/CLE for the offenses I have it at about 10 but the pitching is 6 and vs each other around 13. my total would be around 10... may make it a no play. 
NYY -   off = 11
pit = 9.1
vs = 17???

Need to figure these games out. 

 
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Posted: #348
Here are my #s for the 5:10 game

Dbacks 3.91 runs
Marlins 4.75 runs

This is career offensive for the current lineups. Base_Runs
Career pitching for SP. Base_Runs
2009 totals for pen. Base_Runs

Which using the Pythagorean Expectation for win %, it gives a value of 63.67%.
63.67% is equal to -175 ML
My line is -140 ML

Value with the Fish?

Fish 1st 5  -140
Fish Game -140

GL to everyone
 
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Posted: #349
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:

Here are my #s for the 5:10 game

Dbacks 3.91 runs
Marlins 4.75 runs

This is career offensive for the current lineups. Base_Runs
Career pitching for SP. Base_Runs
2009 totals for pen. Base_Runs

Which using the Pythagorean Expectation for win %, it gives a value of 63.67%.
63.67% is equal to -175 ML
My line is -140 ML

Value with the Fish?

Fish 1st 5  -140
Fish Game -140

GL to everyone

Looks like you have a play with them. I personally am not to good with sides. Will take RL when I see a mismatch so I could lower the juice and in some cases get a +line. Will be pulling for you!!

I do not factor pen in too much. Trying to keep it simple as possible because I do not have much time to do all the work. 

BOL to all
 
 
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Posted: #350


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