MLB system releases Monday 06/01/09 Base_Runs formula.....
Marlins-105
Rockies+120
Mariners-122
A's vs WhiteSox OVER 8.5
hey network, do you mind point out which one play is consider the strongest lean of the day for each day if its not too much work? I like doing my own research and compare with yours and if there were any of them match i typically play them and i have about 85% winning record if both our play match up so just want to see what u come up with. thanks network for all the help keep up the great work
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Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
MLB system releases Monday 06/01/09 Base_Runs formula.....
Marlins-105
Rockies+120
Mariners-122
A's vs WhiteSox OVER 8.5
hey network, do you mind point out which one play is consider the strongest lean of the day for each day if its not too much work? I like doing my own research and compare with yours and if there were any of them match i typically play them and i have about 85% winning record if both our play match up so just want to see what u come up with. thanks network for all the help keep up the great work
hey network, do you mind point out which one play is consider the strongest lean of the day for each day if its not too much work? I like doing my own research and compare with yours and if there were any of them match i typically play them and i have about 85% winning record if both our play match up so just want to see what u come up with. thanks network for all the help keep up the great work
as far as 'value' it's the Rockies+120 hands down, if you coincide, that should give you a clear indication....However, my strongest capped play is the Mariners-122..have a good evening SN
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Quote Originally Posted by kC1234:
hey network, do you mind point out which one play is consider the strongest lean of the day for each day if its not too much work? I like doing my own research and compare with yours and if there were any of them match i typically play them and i have about 85% winning record if both our play match up so just want to see what u come up with. thanks network for all the help keep up the great work
as far as 'value' it's the Rockies+120 hands down, if you coincide, that should give you a clear indication....However, my strongest capped play is the Mariners-122..have a good evening SN
Sports Network, would you mind providing me with all of your Base Runs results for the St. Louis/Cincinnati game tonight (1st 5 innings and full game).
I put in some serious time on that one today as another practice game and wanted to see how my results compare.
unfortunetly I have 'scratched' that particular game based on Edison Volquez's in-activity due to injury(back spasm's) he's missed 3 rotations (15days) Although before getting injured, he led the NL with a .185 PAB...Pujols has seen him 6 times, and has 2 HR's...5innings is a no play...The 'lean' goes to the Reds, based on value only. they are presently in a hitting slump, and need to generate run production..This game would be classified a "watch and observe" for future reference, concerning Volquez's first appearence back from I-R...best regards
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Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:
Sports Network, would you mind providing me with all of your Base Runs results for the St. Louis/Cincinnati game tonight (1st 5 innings and full game).
I put in some serious time on that one today as another practice game and wanted to see how my results compare.
unfortunetly I have 'scratched' that particular game based on Edison Volquez's in-activity due to injury(back spasm's) he's missed 3 rotations (15days) Although before getting injured, he led the NL with a .185 PAB...Pujols has seen him 6 times, and has 2 HR's...5innings is a no play...The 'lean' goes to the Reds, based on value only. they are presently in a hitting slump, and need to generate run production..This game would be classified a "watch and observe" for future reference, concerning Volquez's first appearence back from I-R...best regards
Like I have said before and Ill say it again, I can not pick a side to save my life. Those were both RL as I left out but still losers.
NYY/CLE - I was sick watching so many wasted opportunities. Bases loaded no outs and no runs. Cle walked around 10 batters and never were out of the game. Joba pitched very well and deserved the win but I still feel like I was on the right side of the game just too many blown opportunities.
JUNE = 1-1 totals
Not doing anymore sides after watching both games lose
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Like I have said before and Ill say it again, I can not pick a side to save my life. Those were both RL as I left out but still losers.
NYY/CLE - I was sick watching so many wasted opportunities. Bases loaded no outs and no runs. Cle walked around 10 batters and never were out of the game. Joba pitched very well and deserved the win but I still feel like I was on the right side of the game just too many blown opportunities.
JUNE = 1-1 totals
Not doing anymore sides after watching both games lose
MLB system releases Monday 06/01/09 Base_Runs formula.....
Marlins-105........win
Rockies+120......loss
Mariners-122......loss
A's vs WhiteSox OVER 8.5...loss
FINAL RESULTS:
1-3 unit$:-3
The last 2 days of action has seen what is refered to in handicapping as "progression/regression theorm" this plays a strong role on a cappers ego, and in some cases, intrudes on his esteem/confidence...Simply put: it's MLB, all teams have slumps, and so do cappers, nothing walks on water, what's the answer? The 'rebound', yes, the capper should take his rebound very serious, re-capp your losses, find out what went wrong, and why. But mainly, put it behind you, regain form, mix it up, and and come back with strength..the only aspect of impression is too yourself, and your bankroll..attention, and recognition are totally meaning-less..even the Yankees go 3-7; but yet, rebound to 10-0; to the cappers who are reading this commentary, and have had a bad 'run' of late, don't cacoon up, pappion' instead. The results will impress you dramatically...that's Baseball, just when you think youve figured it out, and your on a roll'..expect regression at some point...take advantage of your situation....deal with it
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Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
MLB system releases Monday 06/01/09 Base_Runs formula.....
Marlins-105........win
Rockies+120......loss
Mariners-122......loss
A's vs WhiteSox OVER 8.5...loss
FINAL RESULTS:
1-3 unit$:-3
The last 2 days of action has seen what is refered to in handicapping as "progression/regression theorm" this plays a strong role on a cappers ego, and in some cases, intrudes on his esteem/confidence...Simply put: it's MLB, all teams have slumps, and so do cappers, nothing walks on water, what's the answer? The 'rebound', yes, the capper should take his rebound very serious, re-capp your losses, find out what went wrong, and why. But mainly, put it behind you, regain form, mix it up, and and come back with strength..the only aspect of impression is too yourself, and your bankroll..attention, and recognition are totally meaning-less..even the Yankees go 3-7; but yet, rebound to 10-0; to the cappers who are reading this commentary, and have had a bad 'run' of late, don't cacoon up, pappion' instead. The results will impress you dramatically...that's Baseball, just when you think youve figured it out, and your on a roll'..expect regression at some point...take advantage of your situation....deal with it
SportsNetwork, I am going to be putting in a lot of time working out the kinks in my Base Runs calculations for the Cardinals and Dodgers games tonight. Can you please provide your results for my comparison.
Thanks a lot.
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SportsNetwork, I am going to be putting in a lot of time working out the kinks in my Base Runs calculations for the Cardinals and Dodgers games tonight. Can you please provide your results for my comparison.
SportsNetwork, I am going to be putting in a lot of time working out the kinks in my Base Runs calculations for the Cardinals and Dodgers games tonight. Can you please provide your results for my comparison.
Thanks a lot.
YES, I'll be posting later, no problem
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Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:
SportsNetwork, I am going to be putting in a lot of time working out the kinks in my Base Runs calculations for the Cardinals and Dodgers games tonight. Can you please provide your results for my comparison.
SN, can you share your exact numbers for the Dodgers and Cardinals games?
I came up with LAD 3.8, ARI 3.1, so I agree with your under.
And I came up with StL 4.5, CIN 3.0, although I didn't have a lot of information for Reds players against Thompson.
Your LAD/ARI are right on the money using Base_Runs in pure form.. my total read is 7.2
StL/CIN has to be capped with added variables to BR/RC based on not getting a read on the Cardinals SP (Thompson) who hasn't started in 15 days, and only has 8.0 IP the lean goes to StL, but it's weak, and I have scratched this game from todays action
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Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:
SN, can you share your exact numbers for the Dodgers and Cardinals games?
I came up with LAD 3.8, ARI 3.1, so I agree with your under.
And I came up with StL 4.5, CIN 3.0, although I didn't have a lot of information for Reds players against Thompson.
Your LAD/ARI are right on the money using Base_Runs in pure form.. my total read is 7.2
StL/CIN has to be capped with added variables to BR/RC based on not getting a read on the Cardinals SP (Thompson) who hasn't started in 15 days, and only has 8.0 IP the lean goes to StL, but it's weak, and I have scratched this game from todays action
I have spent about 3 hours reading this entire blog/post. I have been handicapping baseball for about 2.5 full seasons and before that was on occasional sports wagerer. My question is, as always with baseball, don't you need to differentiate between, say, your 70% winning percentage in your first 100 games and instead take into account which games lost and what the vig was for those games - or what the positive extra flow was when underdogs won? Maybe that is on here, but I do not see it. Just curious. I know some people who do well betting totals, but I have NEVER in 10 years ever known any pros or people who make real money during baseball seasons who bet on favorites. In fact, the sportsbook pros that I know almost exclusively bet on underdogs in all sports, not just baseball. Granted I do not know that many pro cappers (about 4 I have met in Vegas over the years) but the percentage you need to hit laying huge vigs on baseball, to me at least, makes it difficult to win.
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I have spent about 3 hours reading this entire blog/post. I have been handicapping baseball for about 2.5 full seasons and before that was on occasional sports wagerer. My question is, as always with baseball, don't you need to differentiate between, say, your 70% winning percentage in your first 100 games and instead take into account which games lost and what the vig was for those games - or what the positive extra flow was when underdogs won? Maybe that is on here, but I do not see it. Just curious. I know some people who do well betting totals, but I have NEVER in 10 years ever known any pros or people who make real money during baseball seasons who bet on favorites. In fact, the sportsbook pros that I know almost exclusively bet on underdogs in all sports, not just baseball. Granted I do not know that many pro cappers (about 4 I have met in Vegas over the years) but the percentage you need to hit laying huge vigs on baseball, to me at least, makes it difficult to win.
I have spent about 3 hours reading this entire blog/post. I have been handicapping baseball for about 2.5 full seasons and before that was on occasional sports wagerer. My question is, as always with baseball, don't you need to differentiate between, say, your 70% winning percentage in your first 100 games and instead take into account which games lost and what the vig was for those games - or what the positive extra flow was when underdogs won? Maybe that is on here, but I do not see it. Just curious. I know some people who do well betting totals, but I have NEVER in 10 years ever known any pros or people who make real money during baseball seasons who bet on favorites. In fact, the sportsbook pros that I know almost exclusively bet on underdogs in all sports, not just baseball. Granted I do not know that many pro cappers (about 4 I have met in Vegas over the years) but the percentage you need to hit laying huge vigs on baseball, to me at least, makes it difficult to win.
the 70 wins in which your speaking of resulted in +160 units with applied management..Since the application of the RL/DOG formula 8 days ago, it has resulted in 32 wins 25 losses for +27 units; your correct in your assessment , the only true play in MLB is the RL and DOG wagers...The rest have no real, value, and put your MM at risk..THX for the interest, and insight, good question!
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Quote Originally Posted by johnnybones:
I have spent about 3 hours reading this entire blog/post. I have been handicapping baseball for about 2.5 full seasons and before that was on occasional sports wagerer. My question is, as always with baseball, don't you need to differentiate between, say, your 70% winning percentage in your first 100 games and instead take into account which games lost and what the vig was for those games - or what the positive extra flow was when underdogs won? Maybe that is on here, but I do not see it. Just curious. I know some people who do well betting totals, but I have NEVER in 10 years ever known any pros or people who make real money during baseball seasons who bet on favorites. In fact, the sportsbook pros that I know almost exclusively bet on underdogs in all sports, not just baseball. Granted I do not know that many pro cappers (about 4 I have met in Vegas over the years) but the percentage you need to hit laying huge vigs on baseball, to me at least, makes it difficult to win.
the 70 wins in which your speaking of resulted in +160 units with applied management..Since the application of the RL/DOG formula 8 days ago, it has resulted in 32 wins 25 losses for +27 units; your correct in your assessment , the only true play in MLB is the RL and DOG wagers...The rest have no real, value, and put your MM at risk..THX for the interest, and insight, good question!
Some tough games last night, especially that Dodgers under and Blue Jays under. Haren and Halladay dominated, but you never know when bullpens are going to screw things up. Randy Wolf actually pitched good as well, but those first two innings were enough to ruin him. Just goes to show that while the calculations are great tools, there is still a lot more to consider, and there is no such thing as a "Lock".
0
Some tough games last night, especially that Dodgers under and Blue Jays under. Haren and Halladay dominated, but you never know when bullpens are going to screw things up. Randy Wolf actually pitched good as well, but those first two innings were enough to ruin him. Just goes to show that while the calculations are great tools, there is still a lot more to consider, and there is no such thing as a "Lock".
Some tough games last night, especially that Dodgers under and Blue Jays under. Haren and Halladay dominated, but you never know when bullpens are going to screw things up. Randy Wolf actually pitched good as well, but those first two innings were enough to ruin him. Just goes to show that while the calculations are great tools, there is still a lot more to consider, and there is no such thing as a "Lock".
absolutely.............
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Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:
Some tough games last night, especially that Dodgers under and Blue Jays under. Haren and Halladay dominated, but you never know when bullpens are going to screw things up. Randy Wolf actually pitched good as well, but those first two innings were enough to ruin him. Just goes to show that while the calculations are great tools, there is still a lot more to consider, and there is no such thing as a "Lock".
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