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MLB system releases...

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Posted: #951
                                         Thursday, July 2nd, 2009
 
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MLB system releases 07/02/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Padres+115 ML
Phillies+132 ML
 
SF/StL  OVER 9
CHW/KC  UNDER 9
 
 
four formulated
 
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Posted: #954
 GL Kemosabe
 
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Posted: #955
 bol SN
 
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Posted: #956
SN - Thank you for your guidance. At this time I am relatively early in the BsR learning curve and I am focusing on 5in sides until I am confident with my adjusted components and multipliers.  I have worked on the first 5in of the following games. Please tell me what you think.

HOU - 2.46
SD - 3.15

PHI - 4.78
ATL - 1.58

I would also like a recommendation on what to do in situations such as in today's SD  lineup where three players have never faced the HOU pitcher.
 In the above example they have been simply left out of the model This alters the outcome making it less accurate, agree?

Thank You, BLKN
 
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Posted: #957
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

MLB system releases 07/02/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Padres+115 ML...loss
Phillies+132 ML...loss
 
SF/StL  OVER 9...loss
CHW/KC  UNDER 9...win
 
 
FINAL RESULTS:
1-3
units:-8.20*
 
 
*The regression of 8units(regardless of how far a capper is ahead) has to bring R/R to the forefront, with applied form, and srategies. nothing less than total recovery can be accepted, in baseball, you have 3 days maximum to gain back your advantage of MM to continue your success, and move forward..To those who have studied "progression/regression theorm" and understand it's concept / application to sports wagering in particular I will up-date this procedure on your behalf. To the fella's that are un-familar with R/R..feel free to PM for additional information, and insight, if seriously interested...In conclusion, the SD+115 and PHI+132 were losses of 'value'..To parallel this to the Yankees-330 home loss, with SP  CC Sabathia on the mound; is simply, "that's baseball" where 'luck' is never harbored, it's either a win, or loss, and must be accepted as so....SN
 
 
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Posted: #958
Quote Originally Posted by BLACKEN1772:

SN - Thank you for your guidance. At this time I am relatively early in the BsR learning curve and I am focusing on 5in sides until I am confident with my adjusted components and multipliers.  I have worked on the first 5in of the following games. Please tell me what you think.

HOU - 2.46
SD - 3.15

PHI - 4.78
ATL - 1.58

I would also like a recommendation on what to do in situations such as in today's SD  lineup where three players have never faced the HOU pitcher.
 In the above example they have been simply left out of the model This alters the outcome making it less accurate, agree?

Thank You, BLKN

yes, it hinders the accuracy, but still gives the lean your looking for. and puts the stats in position to apply 'situational' handicapping, based on the value of the game, and the strength of advantage...best regards,  SN 

 
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ApacheM
 
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mojator
 
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Posted: #961
toft33 and back at you
 
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Posted: #962
                                    Friday, July 3rd, 2009
 
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Posted: #963
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

yes, it hinders the accuracy, but still gives the lean your looking for. and puts the stats in position to apply 'situational' handicapping, based on the value of the game, and the strength of advantage...best regards,  SN 



SN -I agree with you that the application of results within this experiment (BR/RC) be used only as tool in ones handicapping. It is not "be all, end all" result. I have spent substantial time this past week sorting out your ideas in believe to have a understanding of it. I lastly have incorporated The Pythagorean Expectation formula in the variant of Pythaganpat and am pleased by the results.
 Thank you for bringing this experiment to the forefront. As  well as taking some of your valuable time to answer my questions. It has had a refreshing effect on me and widened my views about handicapping baseball. All in all I believe your experiment has merrit and I plan on continuing to "fine tune" the formulas to suit my handicapping.  I look forward to further dicussion, and correspondance..best regards BLKN
 
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Posted: #964
where are you SN any early games you like
 
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Posted: #965
MLB system releases Friday 07/03/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Cubs+132 RL
Marlins+145 RL
Giants+190 RL
Indians+170 RL
RedSox+175 RL
 
Braves-119  5innings
Cardinals-121  5innings
Diamondbacks+132  5innings
Dodgers-129 ML
 
TOR/NYY  UNDER 9.5
CWS/KC  UNDER 8
TB/TEX  OVER 10
DET/MIN  OVER 9
 
 
thirteen PAC formulated
projected: 9/13
 
SN
 
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Posted: #966
 
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Posted: #967
Quote Originally Posted by agv:

where are you SN any early games you like

Cubs+132 RL  6agv's

TOR/NYY UNDER 9.5  2agv's

 
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Posted: #968

Quote Originally Posted by BLACKEN1772:



SN -I agree with you that the application of results within this experiment (BR/RC) be used only as tool in ones handicapping. It is not "be all, end all" result. I have spent substantial time this past week sorting out your ideas in believe to have a understanding of it. I lastly have incorporated The Pythagorean Expectation formula in the variant of Pythaganpat and am pleased by the results.
 Thank you for bringing this experiment to the forefront. As  well as taking some of your valuable time to answer my questions. It has had a refreshing effect on me and widened my views about handicapping baseball. All in all I believe your experiment has merrit and I plan on continuing to "fine tune" the formulas to suit my handicapping.  I look forward to further dicussion, and correspondance..best regards BLKN

 

The "Pythagorean_Expectation Formula" is designed for MLB handicapping, it's application is a work of art within itself  SN

 
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Posted: #969
 For those interested /  wikipedia.org/wiki/pythagorean_expectation  can check this link out....SN
 
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Posted: #970
mojator  as always, best regards
 
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Posted: #971

It seems I have stumbled on a very interesting use of Sabermetrics here.  I must commend Sports_Network on a very thorough and well thought-out system. I have read this thread at least 6 times over the last week and it seems detailed enough for anyone to follow through.

To further the thought process and advancement of this theory..I will give a detailed explanation of my calculation for today’s TOR and NYY game – 1st 5 innings only.  I am posting this after the start of the game because I would like to know if my application of this theory is correct, without the consequences of someone taking this information, right or wrong, and losing.

1st thing – I wait until the actual lineup is posted on MLB.com for the game – 1 hour before game time. That way I do not have to predict the lineup or relief pitchers – everything is known at this point.

 
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Posted: #972
For the NYY against Tallet

Name        BaseRuns    AB       H      Outs
Jeter             0.967        11        3        8
Damon          2.755        16        5       11
Teixeria         4.327         5         3        2
Rodriguez      1.163        12       1        11
Cano             1.430        14       4        10
Swisher         2.084          5       2         3
Matzui           5.228        11       6         5
Cervelli          0.290          3       1         2
Gardner         0.629         3        1         2  
Total            18.874       81       26      55
55 outs=18.33 Innings
18.874 Base Runs/18.33 Innings = 1.029 Base Runs per inning
1.029 x 5innings = 5.147 NYY 1st 5 innings

For TOR against Burnett I get 1.65 1st 5 Innings

 
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Posted: #973
Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:

For the NYY against Tallet

Name        BaseRuns    AB       H      Outs
Jeter             0.967        11        3        8
Damon          2.755        16        5       11
Teixeria         4.327         5         3        2
Rodriguez      1.163        12       1        11
Cano             1.430        14       4        10
Swisher         2.084          5       2         3
Matzui           5.228        11       6         5
Cervelli          0.290          3       1         2
Gardner         0.629         3        1         2  
Total            18.874       81       26      55
55 outs=18.33 Innings
18.874 Base Runs/18.33 Innings = 1.029 Base Runs per inning
1.029 x 5innings = 5.147 NYY 1st 5 innings

For TOR against Burnett I get 1.65 1st 5 Innings

excellent contribution, applied perfectly, with a correct assessment...thank you   SN

 
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Posted: #974
Just ended the 1st 5  -NYY 3, TOR 1...so in line with what I had. Sports_Network, not sure if using outs is the correct way to determine the base runs per inning as outlined above, but it seems reasonable to expect
 
I am new to Covers, but not to handicapping. I hope to contribute much more to this thread in the future - for now..just trying to stick with the math only on this thread.
 
 
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Posted: #975
MME - Nice work. Like yourself I am new to covers but not to handicapping. My experiential model is slightly different than yours and my 1st 5in NYY - 3.66 TOR - 1.76. I am looking forward to your contributions. - BLKN
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