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MLB system releases...

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Posted: #1076
jwager /  Rollin' always  SN
 
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Posted: #1077
MLB system releases Monday 07/06/09 Base_Runs formula....
 
Tigers+150 RL
Rockies+118 RL
 
BlueJays+142 ML
Orioles+11O ML
Diamondbacks-155 ML
 
Reds+146  5innings
Giants-152  5innings
 
ATL/CHC  UNDER 8.5
 
 
eight PAC formulated
projected ratio: 5/8  62.5%+
value rating: +464 apx
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1078
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

BR/RC is a tool that unlocks the door to "situational" handicapping, and iniciates a cappers 'true' form which produces "spot" plays of value.
 
BLACKEN1772 / good insight! I thrive on commentary of value, insight, and assessment pertaining to BR/RC and all sabermetric formulas designed to handicapp MLB the true success of this thread is judged by the success it brings the participants, and yours truly..We all sit at the same table of success, this is about money, and the brotherhood of handicapping sports..based on discussion, and sharing ones experience, insight, and concept..later fella's    SN


  Well put. - BLKN 
 
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Posted: #1079
 GL Kemosabe
 
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Posted: #1080
Quote Originally Posted by BLACKEN1772:

MME - I just spent the last 1/2 hour preparing  a reply to your PM. I inadvertently pressed backspace and lost everything.
 I will give it another go ASAP.


Just for future reference. Ctrl + Z should get the lost text back. 


 
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Posted: #1081
Quote Originally Posted by DarkHorse21:



Just for future reference. Ctrl + Z should get the lost text back. 



Thank you.
 
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Posted: #1082
Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:

Pythagorean Expectation Formula - I am attempting the correct application here, seems logical.  I have sorted the data into a per inning format, then converted it to 5 innings using the starting pitchers for today's game.

(A^1.83)/((A^1.83)+(B^1.83)) A is runs scored, B is runs allowed.

TORONTO
Have scored 208 Runs on the road this year. Road record=17-23 or 40 games. 5.20 runs per game, .578 runs per inning per game, or 2.89 runs for 5 innings.

Romero on the orad has pitched 33.2 innings, given up 13 runs, or allowed .392 runs per inning, 1.96 runs for 5 innings.

So by using the the formula, runs scored is 2.89, runs allowed is 1.96 = 67.05%

NY YANKEES
Have scored 236 runs at home in 41 games,  5.756 runs per game, 0.639 runs per inning, 3.195 for 1st 5 innings.

Pettite - 55.1 innings at home, given up 33 runs, or .598 runs per inning, 2.994 runs for 5 innings.

So by using the formula runs scored is 3.195, runs allowed is 2.994 = 47.04%


An example of advantage connected to yesterdays action

 
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Posted: #1083
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

MLB system releases Monday 07/06/09 Base_Runs formula....
 
Tigers+150 RL
Rockies+118 RL
 
BlueJays+142 ML
Orioles+11O ML
Diamondbacks-155 ML
 
Reds+146  5innings
Giants-152  5innings
 
ATL/CHC  UNDER 8.5
 
 
eight PAC formulated
projected ratio: 5/8  62.5%+
value rating: +464 apx
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1084
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Monday 07/06/09 Base_Runs formula....
 
Tigers+150 RL...loss
Rockies+118 RL...loss
 
BlueJays+142 ML...win
Orioles+11O ML...loss
Diamondbacks-155 ML...win
 
Reds+146  5innings.....loss
Giants-152  5innings...win
 
ATL/CHC  UNDER 8.5...win
 
 
eight PAC formulated
projected ratio: 5/8  62.5%+
value rating: +464 apx
 
SN
 
 
 
FINAL RESULTS:
4-4
units:+4.40
 
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Posted: #1085
                                         Tuesday, July 7th, 2009
 
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Posted: #1086
looking good.. keep up the good work man.
 
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Posted: #1087
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Monday 07/06/09 Base_Runs formula....
 
Tigers+150 RL...loss
Rockies+118 RL...loss
 
BlueJays+142 ML...win
Orioles+11O ML...loss
Diamondbacks-155 ML...win
 
Reds+146  5innings.....loss
Giants-152  5innings...win
 
ATL/CHC  UNDER 8.5...win
 
 
eight PAC formulated
projected ratio: 5/8  62.5%+
value rating: +464 apx
 
SN
 
 
 
FINAL RESULTS:
4-4
units:+4.40
SN-As far a unit structure is concerned, how did you arrive at +4.40?
Thanks,
Mac
 
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Posted: #1088
all readers  SN  always has great plays and is on fire with his under plays thanks for all your hard work              KREATTURE   how have you been  i havent heard from you lately your input is always helpful
 
 
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Posted: #1089
So if there aren't enough plate appearances of one lineup against the opposing team's starting pitcher we use the Pythagorean Expectation Formula correct?  Which will give us a statistical lean -- From there we use situational handicapping to strengthen/scratch the selection?
Runs Created and Runs Allowed is used to do the same thing if there are enough plate appearances,  and are also good indications of overs/unders am I right?
 
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Posted: #1090
Quote Originally Posted by agv:

all readers  SN  always has great plays and is on fire with his under plays

For the record, over the last nine days, SN is 14-1 with his under picks. Can't wait to hear what's on tap for tonight.

 
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Posted: #1091
Runs Created for Toronto tonight vs. Shields I have as being 0.491 total.
-Under is 6-1 in Shields' last 7 starts overall.
-Under is 5-1 in Shields' last 6 starts as a home favorite.
-Under is 4-1-1 in Shields' last 6 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
-Rays are 5-1 in Shields' last 6 home starts vs. Blue Jays.
-Rays are 15-3 in Shields' last 18 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.

Possible Bets:
- TOR @ TB Under 9.0
- Tampa Bay RL +115
- Toronto Under 4.5 Runs


 
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Posted: #1092

Rzepczynski has never started a game though...

 
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Posted: #1093
MLB system releases Tuesday 07/07/09 Base_Runs formula.....
 
Rays+120 RL
Tigers+110 RL
RedSox-110 RL
 
Marlins-118 ML
 
Braves+105  5innings
 
CIN/PHI  UNDER 9
NYY/MIN  UNDER 9
BAL/SEA  UNDER 8.5
 
 
eight PAC formulated
projected ratio: 5/8  62.5%
 
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1094
MACDONEGAL /  keep an eye on your inbox. I'll wire your PM with the unit 'structure'.. and, attached equations...best regards  SN
 
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Posted: #1095
 GL Kemosabe
 
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Posted: #1096
Quote Originally Posted by WiLdCaRd88:

So if there aren't enough plate appearances of one lineup against the opposing team's starting pitcher we use the Pythagorean Expectation Formula correct?  Which will give us a statistical lean -- From there we use situational handicapping to strengthen/scratch the selection?
Runs Created and Runs Allowed is used to do the same thing if there are enough plate appearances,  and are also good indications of overs/unders am I right?

Your description on conept is correct, the answer to your questions their-fore, is yes, and yes..basically, you have zeroed in on the target, now apply your form.....best regards   SN

 
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Posted: #1097
SN why am I getting such low numbers for RC in the OAK/BOS game?
I have Oakland -- 0.579
and Boston -- 0.219
I take it I am not supposed to take the RC and divide it by 27?
Instead just take the original RC number produced?
 
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Posted: #1098
Quote Originally Posted by WiLdCaRd88:

SN why am I getting such low numbers for RC in the OAK/BOS game?
I have Oakland -- 0.579
and Boston -- 0.219
I take it I am not supposed to take the RC and divide it by 27?
Instead just take the original RC number produced?

 

WIld Card, you can search wikipedia for the runs created formula, as well as the formula for RC/27 or 25.5 innings.  And if you really want to make things simple......those stats are available on espn.com for all Major League teams.

 
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Posted: #1099
Quote Originally Posted by WiLdCaRd88:

SN why am I getting such low numbers for RC in the OAK/BOS game?
I have Oakland -- 0.579
and Boston -- 0.219
I take it I am not supposed to take the RC and divide it by 27?
Instead just take the original RC number produced?

Here is the formula I use for RC/27 if you want to try it out yourself.

(RC x 27) divided by

(AB - H - Sacrifices + Caught Stealing + GIDP)

 
 
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Posted: #1100

Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

TYPO

Here is the formula I use for RC/27 if you want to try it out yourself.

(RC x 27) divided by

(AB - H + Sacrifices + Caught Stealing + GIDP)

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