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Captain
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Posted: #1101
I'm using RC = (2.4C +A)(3C + B)   -.9C
                                       9C

Then I'm taking the number I get from that, and dividing it by 27.
Should I NOT divide the 27 at the end?


 
Captain
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Posted: #1102
Either way, my numbers are off.
I haven't gotten a number greater than 1.0 run yet.
And if I weren't going to divide by 27, then all of my numbers would be pretty big.
Example: Today I have Oakland at 0.579 RC (With the 27 divided)
If I didn't divide the 27 I would have 15.533 RC.

 
Captain
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Posted: #1103
Unless Oakland is a poor example and 15.633 is actually the correct number yielded from the formula.
 
Captain
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Posted: #1104
POUND OAKLAND TT Over 4.5
 
Prospect
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Posted: #1105
This thread is really impressive. I can´t believe the work you have put into this SN
Working my butt of right now trying to get a grasp on this. Currently reading through all the information on Sean Lahman´s site on sabermetrics. This is probably going to take a while but i will really give it my best. Have been following some systems the last 2 years with some limited success but this is a great oportunity to learn how to cap my own games instead of following someone else´s system or picks.
 
 Hopefully this thread will live a long and and happy (and prosperous!) life.
I sent you a friend request SN and i hope that you will accept it.
 
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Posted: #1106
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

MACDONEGAL /  keep an eye on your inbox. I'll wire your PM with the unit 'structure'.. and, attached equations...best regards  SN

 Looking forward to it.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #1107

[Quote: Originally Posted by MACDONEGAL]

 

Hi SN. Love you're work here, could you also send me the PM with the above info?

Thanks

 
Prospect
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Posted: #1108
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

MACDONEGAL /  keep an eye on your inbox. I'll wire your PM with the unit 'structure'.. and, attached equations...best regards  SN

 

Hi, SN... I am curious about your unit structure/MM also...

 

Thx, GMSI

 
Rookie
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Posts: 691
Posted: #1109
Only had time to do one tonight guys:

PITT - HOU

Hou Starting Lineup Against  Maholm - Lifetime Stats
7 of 9 players have stats
BR=6.990, RC=8.667
7.828 BR/RC Average for 9.333 Innings
0.838 BR/RC per Inning
4.194 BR/RC for 1 st 5 Innings

Pitt Starting Lineup against Moehler - Lifetime Stats
6 of 9 players have stats
BR=5.222, RC=6.200
5.711 BR/RC Average for 5.667 Innings
1.008 BR/RC per Inning
5.039 BR/RC for 1st 5 Innings

Plus those numbers in the Pythagoeran Expectation = 58.32% in favor of PItt for the 1st 5 innings. (60% Translates to a money line of -150)

This is straight math only, which only gives a lean, but there is value on the line currently on Matchbook at Pitt+105 for the 1st 5 innings.







 
Prospect
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Posted: #1110
Quote Originally Posted by WiLdCaRd88:

SN why am I getting such low numbers for RC in the OAK/BOS game?
I have Oakland -- 0.579
and Boston -- 0.219
I take it I am not supposed to take the RC and divide it by 27?
Instead just take the original RC number produced?


.579 = RPI  Multiply # of innings.  .579*5=2.9 Runs in five innings. It is all written in your words above step back and think!
 
Rookie
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Posted: #1111
WIldcard...seems a bit off....PM me your email and I'll send an example over..
 
Rookie
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Posted: #1112
WIldcard...seems a bit off....PM me your email and I'll send an example over..
 
Prospect
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Posts: 53
Posted: #1113
Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:

Only had time to do one tonight guys:

PITT - HOU

Hou Starting Lineup Against  Maholm - Lifetime Stats
7 of 9 players have stats
BR=6.990, RC=8.667
7.828 BR/RC Average for 9.333 Innings
0.838 BR/RC per Inning
4.194 BR/RC for 1 st 5 Innings

Pitt Starting Lineup against Moehler - Lifetime Stats
6 of 9 players have stats
BR=5.222, RC=6.200
5.711 BR/RC Average for 5.667 Innings
1.008 BR/RC per Inning
5.039 BR/RC for 1st 5 Innings

Plus those numbers in the Pythagoeran Expectation = 58.32% in favor of PItt for the 1st 5 innings. (60% Translates to a money line of -150)

This is straight math only, which only gives a lean, but there is value on the line currently on Matchbook at Pitt+105 for the 1st 5 innings.









My friend, I believe you have seen the light. Feels good doesn't it.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #1114
Quote Originally Posted by BLACKEN1772:



My friend, I believe you have seen the light. Feels good doesn't it.


Couldn't have done it without you BLACKEN and SN of coarse..

MME

 
Captain
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Posted: #1115
MeMyselfAndI...Friend request pending on your end.
Please accept.

 
Captain
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Posted: #1116
Quote Originally Posted by BLACKEN1772:



.579 = RPI  Multiply # of innings.  .579*5=2.9 Runs in five innings. It is all written in your words above step back and think!


All I can say is that I feel extremely stupid.
So I take the final number yielded from the formula, and then multiply by number of innings correct?
WOW.

 
Captain
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Posted: #1117
I can now say that I have RC down pat and understand it fully now.
I even have a spreadsheet -- Just need to plug numbers in and it calculated the RC for me.
Now onto this BR stuff....

Do you recommend calculating both BR and RC, then taking the avg of both numbers to get a more accurate run calculation?
 
Captain
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Posted: #1118
We need another run out of the Rays
 
Captain
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Posted: #1119
Why is Boston RL a play for today though?
I have Boston -- 1.971 ((7/9 Players))
          Oakland -- 5.211 ((9/9 Players))
 
Rookie
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Posted: #1120
I just did the calculations for Boston - I have 8 of 9 players, lifetime stats against Eveland..

BR=9.726, RC=13.00
BR/RC=11.363
6 Innings Total
BR/RC per Inning=1.894
1ts 5 innings=9.469

I will send over my calculations...Friend request accepted...
 
Rookie
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Posted: #1121
I just did the calculations for Oakland - I have 9 of 9 players, lifetime stats against Beckett..

BR=14.884, RC=17.200
BR/RC=16.042
26.333 Innings Total
BR/RC per Inning=0.609
1ts 5 innings=3.046


 
Captain
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Posted: #1122
Alright I will wait.
Is anyone else getting the same numbers as MMAI?
 
Rookie
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Posted: #1123
Just checked my formulas and noticed that I was not including BB into Total Bases..which should be in there if I am not mistaken....Baseball stats do not use BB, but Sabermetrics does in the calculation of TB.....correct?
 
Captain
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Posted: #1124
What is this Innings Total number?

 
 
Captain
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Posted: #1125
BB is used in steps A, B, and C in the RC formula I'm using...
You have me completely lost now.

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