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MLB system releases...

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Prospect
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Posted: #1426
Hello SN
 
What you have for today??
 
Thanks
 
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Posted: #1427
MLB system releases Thursday 07/23/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Braves+120 RL
Yankees-130 RL
WhiteSox+180 RL
Cardinals+122 RL
 
Tigers-115 ML
BlueJays-150 ML
 
PIT/ARI  UNDER 8
MIN/LAA  UNDER 9
 
eightPACformulared
projected ratio: 6/8  75%
 
SN
 
 
 
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Posted: #1428
Projected Scores for games on 7/24/2009
Balt 1.69459;                Bost 4.018051
Tampa Bay 2.49537   Toronto  1.76794
Mets 1.5869              Houston 5.77997
Texas  3.89178   Kansas City  3.86336
Florida  3.18274          Dodgers  2.2924
Oakland  1.92691    Yankeess 9.76085
Atlanta  3.0231        Milwaukee  4.9878
 
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Posted: #1429
great job SN.  
 
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Posted: #1430
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Thursday 07/23/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Braves+120 RL...loss
Yankees-130 RL...win
WhiteSox+180 RL...win
Cardinals+122 RL...win*
 
Tigers-115 ML...loss
BlueJays-150 ML...loss
 
PIT/ARI  UNDER 8...loss
MIN/LAA  UNDER 9...loss
 
eightPACformulared
projected ratio: 6/8  75%
 
SN
 
 
FINAL RESULTS:
3-5
units: +4.2
 
 
*as previously recommended, all RL wagers are played to the "final score" of rain-shortened games, where as the Push is 'waived'....SN
 
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Posted: #1431
Quote Originally Posted by DarkHorse21:

great job SN.  

I could not have written a better script of an example, of the PACsymbol formulated play, with the core being the RL, thus;  NYY/CWS/StL/= +24units/ equated, and absorbed to +4.2units  SN

 
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Posted: #1432
Some tough odds yesterday. (-200 to -300 stuff  lol).  I parlayed 3 RL's and came out with a win (NYY, PHI, ARI).  Took the NYY play from you, and checked if the others didn't go against your picks.  

I have you at +24.16 units for those four RL plays.   I plan to go back over the thread to do the precise units for RL, ML, and totals, but my impression is that most of the profits are in the RL plays, and that you may be giving something back for the totals. My impression, before checking the numbers, is also that the RL's may be good enough to parlay.
 
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Posted: #1433
Hi SN

I'd like to add to DarkHorse's comments regarding the total plays.

Tracking the results you've had since Jul 1st this month, your total plays have been eating a lot of the profits away. Most profitable were RL by a fair distance (these included some unlucky losses where the  team won but only by a run), followed by the 5 innings plays and then ML.

I didn't want to bring it up as I didn't want to come off as offensive or ungrateful for the great work that you've put in so far. Besides, I remember a nice run you put in on under plays not so long ago - so perhaps this is just a prolonged blip.
 
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Posted: #1434
I just did the RL plays for up until 5/31/09.  When the odds where minus (-110 etc), they were 6-0. When the odds where +170 or higher, they were 0-3. In between, they were 13-7. 

So, based on this small sample size, the RL plays were 19-7 when the odds didn't exceed +170.  This equals 73%, and is certainly strong enough for parlays (including open parlays and round robins). 

The first play was posted on 4/30, so this is really just a month worth.   Based on 8 units per RL play, the profit was an astonishing 95.2 units. 




 
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Posted: #1435
Quote Originally Posted by snyder9:

Hi SN

I'd like to add to DarkHorse's comments regarding the total plays.

Tracking the results you've had since Jul 1st this month, your total plays have been eating a lot of the profits away. Most profitable were RL by a fair distance (these included some unlucky losses where the  team won but only by a run), followed by the 5 innings plays and then ML.

I didn't want to bring it up as I didn't want to come off as offensive or ungrateful for the great work that you've put in so far. Besides, I remember a nice run you put in on under plays not so long ago - so perhaps this is just a prolonged blip.

Your far from offensive, and let's not use the word ungateful; on the contrary..your tracking is correct, after going 18-3 and bottoming out at 26-5 on UNDER play before going into regression(after the All-Star break) the trend has produced offensive dominance of late, with the only explanation being,"that's baseball" with adjustments that have to be made to cordinate, and coincide with the flow of the season...I am a firm advocate of the Progession/RegressionTheorm in MLB handicapping(streaks) understanding adjustments have to be made is step one, making those adjustments to a successful formula comes down to trial, and error, while competing to gain the winning edge..The RL is, and always will be the 'key' to value, and successful MLB cappin'..SN

 
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Posted: #1436
                                     
                                    Friday, July 24th, 2009
 
Prospect
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Posted: #1437
took the PHI RL, NYY RL, ARI ML, STL ML 4 team parlay yesterday  with 3 units and won 17.9 units.. thats how its done babyyyyy
 
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Posted: #1438
Quote Originally Posted by acortazz:

took the PHI RL, NYY RL, ARI ML, STL ML 4 team parlay yesterday  with 3 units and won 17.9 units.. thats how its done babyyyyy

Your prosperity shines, congratulations on your solid play

 
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Posted: #1439
MLB system releases Friday 07/24/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Tigers+124 RL  (Verlander)
Rockies+172 RL
 
Astros+120 ML
Braves-119 ML
Pirates+110 ML
BlueJays-138 ML
 
Reds+155  5innings  (Harang)
 
StL/PHI  UNDER 9
OAK/NYY  UNDER 9
CWS/DET  OVER 9.5  (Bonine/Colon)
TEX/KC  UNDER 8
MIN/LAA  UNDER 9
 
 
twelvePACformulated
projected ratio: 9/12  75%
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1440
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

Projected Scores for games on 7/24/2009
Balt 1.69459;                Bost 4.018051  Under 9.5
Tampa Bay 2.49537   Toronto  1.76794   Under 7.5
Mets 1.5869              Houston 5.77997   Hous RL
Texas  3.89178   Kansas City  3.86336   Tex RL
Florida  3.18274          Dodgers  2.2924  Under 7.5
Oakland  1.92691    Yankeess 9.76085   Yankee RL
Atlanta  3.0231        Milwaukee  4.9878   Milw RL
 
Ticket #9649817
Wager 49.00  Win Possibility 2678.15
 
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Posted: #1441
capping rates in the low-to-mid 60's (SN may actually be better than that) are rare and exceptional. Takes a lot of wins to achieve >60%. takes some repeated losses to sink to <70%.  But 60+, money management, and good timing as to line movement (very tough this season) are what scores best.  And,yet, it still leaves much of the result to chance -- no way around it...
 
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Posted: #1442
Quote Originally Posted by toft33:

capping rates in the low-to-mid 60's (SN may actually be better than that) are rare and exceptional. Takes a lot of wins to achieve >60%. takes some repeated losses to sink to <70%.  But 60+, money management, and good timing as to line movement (very tough this season) are what scores best.  And,yet, it still leaves much of the result to chance -- no way around it...

I totally agree, since even though we all strive to hit that 100% in al of our wagers, this idea is definitely a dream, since in reality anything can happen in a game, and isn't betting the same as life?  All one BIG Gamble?

 
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Posted: #1443
Quote Originally Posted by toft33:

capping rates in the low-to-mid 60's (SN may actually be better than that) are rare and exceptional. Takes a lot of wins to achieve >60%. takes some repeated losses to sink to <70%.  But 60+, money management, and good timing as to line movement (very tough this season) are what scores best.  And,yet, "it still leaves much of the result to chance" -- no way around it...

Bullseye

 
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Posted: #1444
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

I totally agree, since even though we all strive to hit that 100% in al of our wagers, this idea is definitely a dream, since in reality "anything can happen in a game", and isn't betting the same as life?  All one BIG Gamble?

another Bullseye, with true insight

 
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Posted: #1445
iam just going to throw this out there for some thoughts can the run line help pick the winner of games SU can that kind of capping be helpfull in some ways if you know what iam mean .In reailty the R/L you pick your team has to win if your on the + side of things  
 
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Posted: #1446
Quote Originally Posted by mikkii10:

iam just going to throw this out there for some thoughts can the run line help pick the winner of games SU can that kind of capping be helpfull in some ways if you know what iam mean .In reailty the R/L you pick your team has to win if your on the + side of things  

most definately  SN

 
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Posted: #1447
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

most definately  SN

I agree with SN and to give you an additional insight into the concept of Betting....If you calculate all of your formula (making sure you have your ()+-/ in the right spots) then these tools can only give you a rough outline of the projected scores.  When utilizing your formula's and taking into consideration of human error, weather condition, home field advantage, and even away advantage (since some teams do play alot better on the road then at home) you can judge...or have a closer idea of the outcome
 
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Posted: #1448
Based on 8 unit RL plays (which may not be the exactly as suggested, but hopefully is close enough)

Until end of May: RL plays: 19-10 (+95.2 units)
July to date: RL plays: 26-23 (+99.76 units)

June was out of tune.  The month started out poorly, and didn't catch up, possibly due to IL play from 6/12 to 6/28. RL record: 22-36 (-56.88 units). 

Total RL record to date: 67-69 (+138.08 units). 




 
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Posted: #1449
Quote Originally Posted by DarkHorse21:

Based on 8 unit RL plays (which may not be the exactly as suggested, but hopefully is close enough)

Until end of May: RL plays: 19-10 (+95.2 units)
July to date: RL plays: 26-23 (+99.76 units)

June was out of tune.  The month started out poorly, and didn't catch up, possibly due to IL play from 6/12 to 6/28. RL record: 22-36 (-56.88 units). 

Total RL record to date: 67-69 (+138.08 units). 




eight units are the equated value placed on the RL when playing the PAC...Your research clearly indicates that RL value +138units overpowers it's own win ratio 67-69 (49.26%) stats don't lie. GOOD JOB...informative to runline players, and those grasping concept to the effects of handicapping, and applying units correctly

 
 
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Posted: #1450
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

MLB system releases Thursday 07/23/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Braves+120 RL...loss
Yankees-130 RL...win
WhiteSox+180 RL...win
Cardinals+122 RL...win*
 
Tigers-115 ML...loss
BlueJays-150 ML...loss
 
PIT/ARI  UNDER 8...loss
MIN/LAA  UNDER 9...loss
 
eightPACformulared
projected ratio: 6/8  75%
 
SN
 
 
FINAL RESULTS:
3-5
units: +4.2
 
 
*as previously recommended, all RL wagers are played to the "final score" of rain-shortened games, where as the Push is 'waived'....SN



How do waive the push of RL games?

Thanks in advance.
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