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MLB system releases...

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Prospect
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Posted: #1476
Nice results yesterday SN.
 
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Posted: #1477
SN, I realised something about your dog ML plays. A lot of your dog wins are by wide margins. So, I went back and did some tracking from Jun 1st to Jul 25th.

Playing straight dog ML, your record is 31-35
However, if you played Reverse Runline on the dog (alternate runline) - your record is 24-42

Now, I don't have historical odds for the RRL but it's fair to say that the 7 losses you would have encountered (where the dog won by a single run) would easily be wiped out by RRL wins as the odds are mostly upwards of +200.

I know you would have to apply value to your own calculations based on your dog pick, but going by simply picking dog RL vs dog ML - you should be showing a much higher unit return.

 
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Posted: #1478
Nice insight snyder9.
 
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Posted: #1479
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Saturday 07/25/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Royals+182 RL...win
RedSox-124 RL...win
Mariners+128 RL...loss
Brewers+168 RL...win
 
Twins+112 ML...loss
Tigers-132 ML...win
BlueJays-105 ML...loss
Mets+128 ML...win
 
Padres+115  5innings...loss
 
ninePACformulated
projected ratio: 6/9  75%
 
 
 
FINAL RESULTS:
5-4
units: +13.84
 
SN
 
 
 
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Posted: #1480
 
 
                                       Sunday, July 26th, 2009
 
Prospect
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Posted: #1481
Snyder9, great idea. I've been following this thread for a while. It seems that will the brilliant minds on this thread, we can come up with the 'ultimate' value plays. There is no doubt the work SN and the others are doing that this is the future of handicapping.

Great job!
 
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Posted: #1482
Snyder9, great idea. I've been following this thread for a while. It seems that will the brilliant minds on this thread, we can come up with the 'ultimate' value plays. There is no doubt the work SN and the others are doing that this is the future of handicapping.

Great job!
 
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Posted: #1483
MLB system releases Sunday 07/26/09 Base_Runs fomula...
 
Astros+132 RL
Reds+210 ML
Twins+141 ML
 
National-140  5innings
 
FLA/LAD UNDER 9
CHW/DET  OVER 9
CLE/SEA  UNDER 9
 
sevenPACformulated
projected ratio: 7/9  77.7%
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1484
Quote Originally Posted by snyder9:

SN, I realised something about your dog ML plays. A lot of your dog wins are by wide margins. So, I went back and did some tracking from Jun 1st to Jul 25th.

Playing straight dog ML, your record is 31-35
However, if you played Reverse Runline on the dog (alternate runline) - your record is 24-42

Now, I don't have historical odds for the RRL but it's fair to say that the 7 losses you would have encountered (where the dog won by a single run) would easily be wiped out by RRL wins as the odds are mostly upwards of +200.

I know you would have to apply value to your own calculations based on your dog pick, but going by simply picking dog RL vs dog ML - you should be showing a much higher unit return.

good tracking...stats don't lie, this will be filtered into the unit application, and ajustments will be altered based on value, thx for the info, those playing specifically DOGS can appreciate the concept of your stat, good tool for cappin' units

 
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Posted: #1485
Hello all
 
Some time before I was working something that include the final boxscore, then the final score of every baseball game.  Unexpectly the page where I had the summary (by date) stop working and could not finish the job.
 
The point: Do any one know a site where I can find the boxscore sumary? (the complete game stats would be better, batter and pitcher game number), maybe a udaptable database, a text file, someone has the service?
 
Please
Apreciate your help
 
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Posted: #1486
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Sunday 07/26/09 Base_Runs fomula...
 
Astros+132 RL...loss
Reds+210 ML...loss
Twins+141 ML...win
 
National-140  5innings...push
 
FLA/LAD UNDER 9...loss
CHW/DET  OVER 9...loss
CLE/SEA  UNDER 9...loss
 
sevenPACformulated
projected ratio: 7/9  77.7%
 
SN
 
FINAL RESULTS:
1-6-1
units:-11.6
 
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Posted: #1487
Quote Originally Posted by moneylog:

Hello all
 
Some time before I was working something that include the final boxscore, then the final score of every baseball game.  Unexpectly the page where I had the summary (by date) stop working and could not finish the job.
 
The point: Do any one know a site where I can find the boxscore sumary? (the complete game stats would be better, batter and pitcher game number), maybe a udaptable database, a text file, someone has the service?
 
Please
Apreciate your help

Try baseball-reference.com has all boxscore summary's for the last eight years  SN

 
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Posted: #1488
 
 
                                      Monday,July 27th, 2009
 
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Posted: #1489
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

MLB system releases Sunday 07/26/09 Base_Runs fomula...
 
Astros+132 RL...loss
Reds+210 ML...loss
Twins+141 ML...win
 
National-140  5innings...push
 
FLA/LAD UNDER 9...loss
CHW/DET  OVER 9...loss
CLE/SEA  UNDER 9...loss
 
sevenPACformulated
projected ratio: 7/9  77.7%
 
SN
 
FINAL RESULTS:
1-5-1
units:-11.6

typo error on final results /  1-5-1(correct)   1-6-1(in-correct)

 
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Posted: #1490
I managed to find a site with historical RRL odds (odds portal). I did the tracking again (Jun 1st to Jul 26th) and used closing ML and RRL odds from Pinnacle.

All bets are four 4 units. For some cases where closing odds were slighty under +100, the bet is still 4 units for simplicity sake.

The tracking shows +18.88 units during the tracking period for using RRL Vs ML. I've uploaded the workbook I did calculations with in case you want to have a look and see if I got everything right.

https://www.mediafire.com/download.php?ujzogjynflw
 
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Posted: #1491
Quote Originally Posted by snyder9:

I managed to find a site with historical RRL odds (odds portal). I did the tracking again (Jun 1st to Jul 26th) and used closing ML and RRL odds from Pinnacle.

All bets are four 4 units. For some cases where closing odds were slighty under +100, the bet is still 4 units for simplicity sake.

The tracking shows +18.88 units during the tracking period for using RRL Vs ML. I've uploaded the workbook I did calculations with in case you want to have a look and see if I got everything right.

https://www.mediafire.com/download.php?ujzogjynflw

good work, with excellent research technique..After review, I find your information will filter adjustments, when cappin' applied units.. Thx for this valuablbe info, as Pinnacle is one of many 'books' I access my wagers through, 4units are a solid standard to use as a guidance table when calculating a ML solution...really good presentation on mediafire SN

 
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Posted: #1492
 
MLB system releases Monday 07/27/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Reds+130 RL
Rockies+110 RL
Brewers+140 RL
Cardinals+142 RL
Phillies+145 RL
Yankees+152 RL
Orioles+138 RL
Angels+138 RL
Tigers+125 ML
 
LAD/StL  UNDER 8
PIT/SF  UNDER 7.5
CHW/MIN  UNDER 9.5
BOS/OAK  UNDER 9
 
thirteenPACformulated*
projected ratio: 10/13  77%
 
SN
 
 
* R&R has been initiated, with the priority being the eleven unit loss, and it's total recovery (three day max; time structure) to progression....
 
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Posted: #1493
That's a heavy card!
What's your total bet exposure today SN, if you don't mind me asking?
 
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Posted: #1494
snyder9  I don't mind at all..it's early to give a 'actual' total figure, based on RL movement, and price. At the time of publishing, I post the best available lines; but as the day progresses, so do the lines, usually I capp units about 60minutes before game time, and put my wagers in around 20minutes bgt...The releases posted are not changed or altered, everyone will receive action, and have already been capped. with the exception of unit attachment, as stated.. i am looking at final profit equations of 2units on O/U's..4 6 8  on runline, and moneyline games, based strictly on value. and what happens through out the day...APRX 62units will be invested on the 13 releases, give or take, but that's a very close figure at this time, almost an exact...SN
 
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Posted: #1495
SN i got you on why your doing the amount of RLs you did, but
A) isnt this being a little reckless if this is a slow and steady system of trying to make money
B) STL RL and STL/LAD U is wishing for two different things on the same game, kinda counter productive. Wouldnt it be better/safer to just try a parlay on the ML and the Under.
 
and SN i seriously want to thank you for all the effort you put into this forum, i know i have said it already but not enough thanks for the knowledge you have shared with many of yoru followers. This is not only a greatlog to see how your system works but you were willing to go even further out of your way to explain in full detail to anyone interested. And for this I want to say your doing a great job. BOL to all
 
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Posted: #1496
Quote Originally Posted by acortazz:

SN i got you on why your doing the amount of RLs you did, but
A) isnt this being a little reckless if this is a slow and steady system of trying to make money
B) STL RL and STL/LAD U is wishing for two different things on the same game, kinda counter productive. Wouldnt it be better/safer to just try a parlay on the ML and the Under.
 
and SN i seriously want to thank you for all the effort you put into this forum, i know i have said it already but not enough thanks for the knowledge you have shared with many of yoru followers. This is not only a greatlog to see how your system works but you were willing to go even further out of your way to explain in full detail to anyone interested. And for this I want to say your doing a great job. BOL to all

A) nothing 'reckless' here; ever.. All games are capped to win the RL, today just happens to have an abundant of qualified runline games with strong leans that just can't be overlooked, everyday is different, with different entry's...No, I could not classify my individual 'form' as slow, steady, reliable, yes, with the priority being to capture 'units' through value wagers, and eliminate juice payments(which most cappers seldom speak of, or include in their ideology....B) No, there's nothing counter productive,with the StL/LAD RL or the Under, however I do understand your insight, based on the strength of the UNDER lean, my decision was to make it a play.. What is counter productive would be to parlay these up, and place them in a high risk situation..remember, we are attaching equations to these games in the form of units, an under loss is backed, and absorbed by 12 plays..understanding the final step of the BR/RC formula: PAC(Position-AdjustmentClassification)would be the key ingredient...to participate, a capper must qualify himself..Thx for the kind words, may you prosper always, respectfully  SN

 
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Posted: #1497
ok could either message me or post here an explanation of the PAC cause im still unsure about what you mean with that
 
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Posted: #1498
acortazz , PM me if you any questions regarding the PACsymbol SN
 
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Posted: #1499
 
MLB system releases Monday 07/27/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Reds+130 RL
Rockies+110 RL
Brewers+140 RL
Cardinals+142 RL
Phillies+145 RL
Yankees+152 RL
Orioles+138 RL
Angels+138 RL
Tigers+125 ML
 
LAD/StL  UNDER 8
PIT/SF  UNDER 7.5
CHW/MIN  UNDER 9.5
BOS/OAK  UNDER 9
 
thirteenPACformulated*
projected ratio: 10/13  77%
 
SN
 
 
* R&R has been initiated, with the priority being the eleven unit loss, and it's total recovery (three day max; time structure) to progression....
 
 
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                                    Tuesday, July 28th, 2009
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